I clearly remember being stunned when 1999 Base Set Unlimited booster boxes (not 1st Edition and not Green Wings) started selling for over $2,000 each on eBay.
So you can probably imagine how I’m reacting to seeing the two most recent boxes at more than $11,000 each.
Are these two sales wild and crazy aberrations, or the ho-hum new normal?
Have a great weekend everyone.
Normal for now
Imo yes this is the new normal.
It is not unusual for us to see a significant retrace in lower tier items. I just watched PSA 9 1st ed fossil dragonite retrace from a peak at $550 back to $400. However, it is EXTREMELY rare to see high end collectibles retrace at all.
Someone who drops $10k+ on a single collectible is not hurting for money. So, unlike your normal collector who drops $100 on a card and comes upon an unexpected expense, it is much less likely for that person to get into a tight spot and need to sell for less than what they paid for. The only time we see a drop in price on high end collectibles is when mistakes are made. Mistakes being: more than one listed at auction somewhere ending very close to each other, poor listing practices (mislabeled, auction set to end at an odd time, seller with minimal feedback, etc)
2019 booster box prices are as good as gone imo
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What variable will change that lowers the price?
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As I said in a video - base unlimited is essentially 1st ed box at this point. Not a lot of people 100K + to spend on 1st ed base so this is it. And its price reflects that as it is just as much or more than 1st ed jungle, fossil, rocket, gym heroes, gym challenge.
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Lopunny will become cool, and crash the market
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I’ve been wondering this myself while kicking myself for not getting 4 more at 3k a piece. Only thing I could think of that could lower the price would be a drop in interest or people’s ability to pay 10-11k. But if it gets to that point, I’m more thinking that that’ll just be the “new ceiling”.
for the box to drop, there has to be a drop across the board for all the graded cards. if the EV of a box stays the same, but the box prices drop to below the EV, market forces will correct the price. obviously, i think there is a healthy gap between the box and EV prices right now on base. look at zandgemporium.com for some reference. appears the EV on the box right now is 5k-6k, so 7k for that box would be the trough of the box price currently.
Looks like the buy and hold strategy wins out either way 
It’s the new normal until it’s not. When I listed mine I stopped counting the offers above £8000 ($10,600). Now I know there are several offers for £9000+ for them. Any kind of ‘bubble’ effect that may exist and influence it is absolutely dwarfed long-term by the supply going down, the demand going up and the buyer pool becoming significantly richer by the year.
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Most recent box just auctioned at $12.5k USD a few hours ago. Also, the psa 10 unl charizard sold for $7,650 last night on PWCC.
Also a confirmed green wing mult country code sold for $15,000 USD a few days ago
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I am ready
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Speculators unloading their collections in mass aka panic selling.
but my guess is it won’t really happen because the fed announced zero percent interest rates for the next 5 years and it sounds like the fed is effectively going to flood the market with cash. So people are going to start moving out of cash as inflation should get higher. The fed also said they’re willing to accept inflation going above 2% for a few years. Most will go into stocks/bonds etc but others will go into collectible items since sports cards/pokemon TCG/magic is starting to become more and more normalized to be a viable investment.
We just need to make sure the prices don’t massively collapse and spark fear in people.
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My body is ready for hyperinflation…
With Pokémon being relatively small in capital vs the other money markets, the growth is really not crazy. I equate this to bitcoin growths pre-2017. I am ready for more gains.
I don’t think the people paying $11k for base set boxes are the ones facing potential cashflow squeezes.
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Agreed. I think there’s a significantlylower likelihood of vintage sealed product retracing just for the reason that supply is in a state of constant decline. So much product is still being opened, and a lot of the sealed product still hasn’t increased in value as much as the cards inside. So I think there’s still room for growth, even at the current price points.
At the same time, it is stunning just how explosive the growth in value was. I sold my Unlimited Base Set box for $179 roughly a decade ago: 
In the current market, $179 would be a bargain for a single booster pack. It’s one thing for something to double or triple in value, or even increase tenfold in value. But it’s another thing for something to go up in value nearly seventyfold in less than a decade. And the stunning increase in value is only made more stunning by the fact that this was a booster box of a set that was released over 20 years ago, but for which nearly the entirety of the growth in value of the product has taken place in the last decade.
Clearly, some of the current value is the result of speculation rather than the fundamentals of the product. Even so, I expect the box (and all vintage boxes) to continue to increase in value, especially over the long-term. But it’s still a pretty much unheard-of growth curve for a physical commodity.
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Yeah, bitcoin value is about the price of a base booster box.
Sure, but to play devil’s advocate: the majority of people who own Unlimited Base Set booster boxes didn’t buy in at $11k. There are a significant amount of people with Base boxes that bought in at under $1000 or even under $150. So there’s a significant portion of the supply that is not necessarily owned by financially well-off people.
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Yeah, that’s fair. Still, there’s no reason for anyone who’s been keeping the boxes since $200 or $2000 to sell lower than the current going price.