It’s hard to know without being able to evaluate the surface, but I agree. The centering and edgewear definitely look pretty average for a 9. I’m thinking about picking up another copy, and now seems to be a pretty good time, but I haven’t been around for long enough or have a broad enough understanding of the market to be able to know if there are trends with respect to how prices shift after the holidays.
With sub-1000 copies of Charizard in the world in the “Mint” condition category (9 or 10), guesstimating based on populations and such, the demand for these is much higher than that number and many many of those are locked away for a VERY long time. Just something to think about when considering.
Also the 9 grade for Charizard is by far the most inflated grade due to regrades.
I love the pop report for 1st Ed base as its the most accurate data to illustrate “pack fresh” condition. That is a big reason why the 8-9 grades have the largest volume.
Keep in mind there is not a single Pokémon collector who, if they don’t already have one, doesn’t want one. When you look at it that way, 1000 isn’t very many.
No, you misunderstand. I was only referring to your opinion that 600 was a lot to which I declared it’s not a lot whereas there may be a million people who want one. Heck, there’s probably a thousand here in the Vegas valley who want one;)
Well said. I want one and I’ll probably never own one. I’ve set myself a $1000 limit per card and I’m sticking to it. Most collectors are in the same boat as me. There’s maybe 1% or less that would drop $5000 on a single item.
This isn’t Base Unlimited where there’s probably a copy sold every single day. I think people tend to sometimes overestimate demand on some of the higher end cards. That being said, I also agree a pop of 600 is really not that much.
Something to consider, China’s population is 1 billion. 1% of that is 10,000,000 people. Even if a small percentage are buying, it can still be a large quantity of buyers.
I am constantly surprised by the depth of the market, especially for this card.
Okay, let’s say you’re right. 1% of 1 million can afford one. What’s 1% of 1 million? 10,000. What’s 1% of 100,000? 1,000.
Now I would think you’re low on your 1%. I would think 5% would figure out a way to buy them. So if there are only 100,000 people collecting, that’s 5,000 who would buy one.
I’m sorry, but there aren’t 5000 people looking to spend $5,000+ on a card.
If demand was that crazy, some of you guys would buy out all available copies or the price would be above or near 5 figures already.
This hobby is HUGE, so is MTG or sports but there’s maybe 20 mega collectors like you, a few hundred serious collectors and then a gazillion small peasants that will easily settle for a unlimited/shadowless or one of the reprints or a played 1st Ed Base.
What makes it difficult for you to believe there are not that many people willing to buy? I am not saying there are that exact amount, as no one can know for sure, but it is not that crazy. There are 13,000,000 millionaires in the US alone. You don’t even need to be that wealthy to own this card. The average person is going to spend $5,000 on something at some point in their life.
Either way take the absolute lowest sale of this card, it sells consistently at that price and higher. Hence it is clearly more than 20 mega collectors. Hell even the psa 10 has more than 20 buyers.
I also think this is a card that people will sell out for. Say a person only spends $1000 or less per card and after some time they own 5+ $1000 cards. To me, this is a card where I’d consider selling multiple $1000 cards to get this one card. Or even say a person starts out with a PSA 7 or 8 and then sells that to upgrade.
By mega, I meant the big players like you and Gary with 7 figures collections.
Yes, the average person can afford the price or make small sacrifices to buy it. Even a half decent used car costs more than that. I’m just saying demand is not nearly as high as Gary says for this type of product in that price range.