I highly doubt the TCG will ever be dead. I think Pokemon already reached its critical point in the mid-2000s when it looked like it was going the direction of Beanie Babies: a fad that was on its way out. It then picked itself off the mat and became a monster, which is an incredibly difficult thing to do. If it didn’t die out then, I don’t think it’s ever going to. I’m not sure I can think of another hobby that died out and then returned with a vengeance such as Pokemon.
There doesn’t have to be another significant jump. There just has to be gradual progression.
What people sometimes fail to take into account is that these cards are not going to be around forever. Just because we have seen a handful of PSA 10 1st Edition Charizards on the market over the last couple of years doesn’t mean it’s going to be a never-ending cycle.
Those Charizards that were sold fell into the hands of serious collectors. You’re not going to be dropping $20K on a card if you aren’t serious about the hobby or, in the case of cross collectors, the card itself. So, those Charizards that were auctioned off are likely never going to be seen on the market again, and if they are, it will be years down the line when the population has decreased and the demand has increased even further, meaning higher prices.
I would honestly be pretty shocked if PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard doesn’t break $50K at some point, and I think it will probably even happen within the next few years.
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I’m not saying your wrong - just arguing your points constructively. I think your failing to realize that the population of this card will never decrease. I consider the demand for this card to be somewhat peaked. Once a card like this hits a certain price point - there are only a handful of people out there that can afford it even if they are serious collectors. The market begins to balance and Charizards start to be sold once people realize how expensive it is now. The last 6 months of 2017 demonstrated this. And your point about not dropping 20k if you aren’t “serious about the hobby” is actually wrong becusse there are plenty of investors who barely know the game that get involved when they see movement in a market at that scale.
The word “investors” is such a buzz word right now in pokemon. From someone who has actual relationships with “investors”, the unexamined cynical depiction is laughably inaccurate. Investors are mostly collectors who simply have more wealth than the average 20ish year old. If anyone thinks the majority of them are not serious or have no interest, that is pure ignorance. If someone has an annual disposable income of 100k, there are plenty of easier ways to create wealth than buying pokemon cards.
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What do you think is going to happen to the value of this card, and where do you see it peaking? Thank you.
I don’t like speculating specific future values. I also don’t perceive markets with binary concepts like “peaking”. I prefer to recognize patterns, and then take a strategic risk in accordance to those perceived patterns.
Markets are interesting because they are not binary. The point about the pop report increasing is a great example. The psa 10 population has doubled from 5 years ago, yet the price has quadrupled. There is no black and white answer. Concepts like peaked, ceilings, etc are only relevant in hindsight.
One perspective I would add is Pokemon has experienced solid growth. IMO become a more established hobby. However, keep in mind we are discussing literally the most valuable set card, which is 250 times less than the most valuable baseball card, and 22,650 times less than the most valuable painting.
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Looking through the psa website at various 1st edition holos it seems that pretty much every card has found a stable price since the price boom of 2017.
Saying that as time goes by there will be a natural price rise by 3-7% per year on each card, possibly 10% max for the charizard as its the most popular. So in 10 years my safe guess is it will be in between $35,000-$45,000.
Pokémon is still fairly new in terms of collectables in regards to the history of sports cards. So its fan base will keep steadily grow and grow over time.
As well it only has X amount of different Pokémon compared to many thousands of players. The different sets and variation of artwork helps. The ‘rookie card’ aspect is key here as they are the 1st ever printed english card set.
Will it ever go over $100,000? Its too difficult to say as so many factors play apart. Maybe in 30 years.
All my opinion.
Can anyone name a card with more than a 100 copies in psa 10 which sells for over 50k usd or 100k usd?
I think that’s the more relevant qn.
My opinion - if no card has done it before then odds are the zard won’t do it anytime soon either. If there are cards that have done it then yeah zard could potentially do it too.
There aren’t any that I’m aware of. The closest thing to Charizard is the Michael Jordan Rookie card which goes for roughly the same amount.
OP is talking long term though. I think their $200k prediction is crazy, but $100k in 10-15 years doesn’t seem out of reach IMO.
Michael Jordan rookie was released in the 1980s so collectors had plenty of time to become rich enough to pay 100k but haven’t
So Pokemon would have to break records of anything else that by a large margin.
Which I suppose is possible if they manage the franchise phenomally over the next two decades, but wouldn’t quite bet on it
The problem with the comparison is that the Jordan rookie isn’t necessarily Jordan’s most sought after card whereas 1st ed base is THE charizard to own.
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@mojotbone makes a good point! Sports are different as there are so many options to collect. I remember seeing one of his game worn jersey’s earn $173,000.
For strictly modern trading cards, Charizard is already in a league of its own. There is no card from 1999-present with the 100+ pop earning 20k.
You’re welcome;)
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I can personally dispute this. I guarantee you I average a request a day for one. Safe to say over 300 a year. A big chunk of those requests are my own collectors/friends. The demand is not down. It is up, as are the offers?
This doesn’t serve me well because I won’t sell and it makes me look greedy to my close acquaintances and friends. Being this way is actually counterproductive. It shrinks the supply which makes them harder to find so the prices may go higher which means I have to pay more to get the next one:(
Maybe I’ll list a Big Three tonight so they’ll look a little more available and not so damn illusive.
Insightful thanks,
Just watched a video on that 450 mil Di Vinci painting.
It might be more than 22,000 x as epic as that card, but that’s just my opinion. I think both are dope and each should rise substantially.
Re Poken;
I am for sure talking long term. I feel cards on this level will sustain growth over at least a lifetime
Hmm thinking why this could be. I don’t know much about Jordan’s career but I assume he was not the absolute stud baller icon we know him as today from the start and when the rookie card was printed , but from day 1 Charizard was the king
Nope, you’re wrong there. Much like Charizard, Jordan was an absolute BEAST his first year. Amazingly, I think he averaged close to 30 points.
Secondly, his Fleer rookie card is not only his best but is probably the MOST valuable rookie card in NBA history.
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In 500 years when Pokemon has taken off to new levels never before dreamed of, Charizard will be 1 billion dollars. We’ll have a city dedicated to Pokemon where anyone can put it on a VR bodysuit and catch Pokemon in the wild. Training Pokemon is a way of life. In fact we genetically replicated real life Pokemon but they’re not safe outside of the VR world. With all of this worldly dedication to the hobby, the now 80 copies of the PSA 10 Charizard have survived the wars. For further perspective, bread is $10,000 a loaf.
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If a loaf of bread is $1 today that must mean the inflation adjustment is 10,000x, putting a 1bn zard 100k in today’s dollars. That’s a 400% real return over 500 years which translates to a 0.322% compound annual real growth rate - before ebay fees, storage and insurance cost
Sorry just being annoying
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