Vintage cards have had 20 years to prove themself. Most singles have gone no where. Meanwhile semi-modern booster boxes are off to the moon.
lol now the trolling is too obvious
I cant help but think of this when I read about Pokemon “investing” especially modern English
“While you’re waiting, help yourself to some more stock”
I like some modern singles, particularly the ones that are truly harder to pull like the VMAX Alt Arts and stuff. I am definitely a fan of the idea of building a collection around these types of cards. Regardless of how much modern sealed is out there from the SWSH era, I don’t think it yet totally accounts for the horrible pull rates a lot of modern boxes have, so I do think some of these singles & sets at least should hold or increase in value over time as they retain a strong demand and bad pull rate. It’s going to take many years though, and there will probably never be a real ‘shortage’ of available supply for a very, very long time due to how the mentality has shifted with collecting and the further optimization that has occurred.
On the other hand, I am not overly comfortable with buying most modern graded singles, because I see no reason at this time to pay a premium over the raw NM price given how many more could be added to the pop report yet. Take the Umbreon meme, how many more PSA 10s will there be? 5000? 10000? It really needs a lot more time to be more established IMO before I’d be comfortable paying a big price for it even though it’s an incredible card.
Anyway, I agree that ultimately it’s inevitable that certain sets/products could offer a solid ROI long-term especially once out of print & if the supply/demand factors allow it to flourish. Once they go out of print and people have a full grasp of everything, the market will adjust accordingly for better or worse.
Even if you disregard all the other reasons why or why not prices will go up on modern, I believe monetary inflation will continue in a way that it will cause prices to go up significantly regardless.
Thanks, yeah I know this post is a super hot take but you worded it perfectly, after already “investing” in WOTC stuff (although im more of a collector) This post is focused on modern, I’m already aware vintage is a good buy, but it’s interesting to analyze modern post logan paul era, I am for sure interested to see the market adjust once the modern sets are out of print.
The explosive growth of modern post logan paul should scare you, not excite you
it is the very definition of inorganic / unsustainable growth
Modern investing for me is Yu Nagaba, Stamp promos and Eevee Heroes. Maybe Amazing Rares.
Beyond that, I’m looking at middle era and golden era.
I think the comic boom in the 90s is somewhat comparable to what happened with modern Pokemon after the boom, I think the only difference is you can’t do much with comics whereas Pokemon it’s like a lottery, the cards can be opened or sealed and gamble what your pull is, they can be played with, graded and organized much more than comics can be. Too each their own but I think the hype of having a sealed pack not knowing whats inside is much more exciting than a comic book, which therefore I feel like the hype may have some potential.
On the other hand, we’ve never really seen this with Pokemon specifically, it’s a completely different ball game to baseball cards given the community and how Pokemon is more than just a collectible. The future is uncertain so I can only speculate.
People were stockpiling evolutions in 2016: WTB Evolutions booster boxes
This is the same conversation that has existed for along time. Just keep in mind, you are speculating on retail product. More specifically, the lowest barrier to entry product that is the easiest to buy. That doesn’t mean it won’t increase, its just about understanding the risk.
it’s a completely different ball game to baseball cards given the community and how Pokemon is more than just a collectible.
I’m not quite sure what you mean by this. There are also large communities of sports card collectors (including some very active forums like this one).
And by “more than a collectible” I’m assuming you’re referring to the fact that the Pokemon TCG can be played? I don’t think this supports your original argument. If you’re holding sealed Celebrations or Evolving Skies or whatever, the cards in those products will likely have little to no gameplay relevance a decade from now. The future value of Evolving Skies/Celebrations cards will be pretty much totally based on demand from collectors.
I’m curious: when did you first notice people purchasing large quantities of sealed product to keep it sealed? Based on how scarce DP-era boxes are, I’m assuming there weren’t many people doing it at that point – but what about HGSS, or BW, or XY? Or did the trend only really start during late-XY era? The sealed product holding trend started picking up real steam in 2012 or so in MTG, but it seems like the trend in Pokemon maybe lagged slightly?
Evolutions was a big pivot into more speculation. There were people buying boxes to hold prior, but nothing like that thread above. It can’t be overstated how exciting evolutions/20th anniversary was for pokemon. That set alone brought a ton of people back into pokemon.
I started seeing conversations around “should I buy large quantities of this modern booster box for future stonks” popping up around XY Flashfire.
That being said, I think an important distinction that’s being missed here is the size of the hobby (e.g number of collectors/investors, print runs, publicity, etc) in 2014 compared with the size of the hobby in 2016 compared to the size of the hobby in 2022. Each one is orders of magnitude greater than the other. Additionally, while the speculation on modern may have really started in 2014-16, so many more people are doing it now than before. Combine that with the incredibly low barrier to entry, and I have a very hard time believing in the long-term prospects of modern sealed when compared with any other investment product.
Also keep in mind…before the pandemic, people who had stockpiled stuff from 2014-16 were failing miserably. Any box from Primal Clash-on in the XY era could not sell for more than $100 on the secondary market. Rudy was liquidating his stock and declared modern Pokemon investment a failure.
I guess what I always wonder too is, will something ‘bigger’ happen to the market than Logan Paul. Obviously he’s a big media influencer, but he’s really only a single individual and I would think it’s possible that some other anomaly could come along that nobody sees coming. I’m really speculating here, but you just never know what could happen in the future. With all the talk around alternative investing and stuff, it may grow into something even bigger down the road.
Anyway, supply & demand factors combined with being out of print is a recipe for higher prices usually. I just have a feeling that there’s more people than ever that will be sitting on sealed boxes and being picky with the cards they pull for grading, so the supply side is what concerns me the most at this time. We’ll know more in time for sure. For now, I just plan on building up a raw NM binder set of the Alt Art cards and not worrying or speculating about the investment side as much.
Yes! This exactly! Maybe I should shorten my posts so people actually read them ahahaha🤣
I’m not down financially from my decisions and products that I’ve purchased over the years, it’s merely side cash for me and a hobby above all, the explosive growth added so many collectors, while scalpers came and went he also introduced the hobby to thousands if not millions of new people. So it doesn’t scare me, he just had insane marketing for Pokemon unintentionally.
Not really, you can pick up lots of vintage singles for cheap, Sealed packs and booster boxes will always hold greater value over MOST singles.
Sure a PSA 10 WOTC or semi-vintage card may hold a lot of value but I’d rather spend my money on sealed boxes whether it’s from HG/SS, XY or modern like Eevee Heroes & VMax Climax