I know in Sword & Shield era and now Scarlet & Violet each Japanese booster box has one secret rare in it which include full arts, alt arts, rainbows, and gold cards. Does anyone know if all of these secret rares are evenly distributed? Or are some more common than others? For instance, in Lost Abyss there are 27 secret rare cards. Does this mean the chance of pulling any single desired secret rare is 1 in 27*30 (30 packs = booster box) = 1:810 packs? Or are some of the cards harder to pull than others within that catagory?
And is it the same for Scarlet and Violet as Sword & Shield?
Thanks
the different rarities are weighted differently. you’re most likely to pull a SR, then a HR/SAR, then a UR. It is often mentioned that sometimes a box can contain two SR+.
i don’t remember where i saw this, but for eevee heroes, there was some rough calculations based on a sample size to estimate that the umbreon vmax HR SA had a roughly 1:50 (per box) pull rate.
edit: found the video. it was squeaks who watched a bunch of boxes being opened by breakers and documented the hits out of about 102 boxes.
edit 2: the umbreon estimated pull rate was lower at 1:73. again this is crude, but still good enough to give a general ratio between the different secret rarities multiplied by how many of each rarity there are (if you’re chasing one specific card)
or if you don’t want to watch the video:
Thanks so much for sharing! Good to know its not even pull rates and thanks for the video. Going to give it a watch. Been curious if its harder to pull say the Giratina from Lost Abyss versus the Giratina from Lost Origin. Or the Lugia from Paradigm Trigger versus Silver Tempest.
Thanks
[EDIT]
So the SR’s probably all have the same pull rate but they differ from HR and UR
Assuming similar pull rates across Japanese sets, then taking the Giratina Alt Art from Lost Abyss we would have:
1/0.745 = 1 SR per 1.34 boxes
x 16 (16 different SR’s you can get)
= 1 in 21.5 boxes or 1 in 645 packs.
I think Lost Origin pull rates were about 1 in 767 or something like that. So sounds like the Giratina Alt Art was a little easier to pull in Japanese but not a large amount so.
Fascinating that the Umbreon VMAX pull rate from the video above is:
1/0.137 x 10 hr cards in the set = 1 in 73 boxes or 1 in 2190 packs!! Crazy hard pull. I know understand a little more why this card is so expensive in Japanese. That’s a super low pull rate.
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yeah exactly.
i haven’t seen anyone compile this sort of data (even at this small of a sample size) for SV era yet, but i’d be curious to see how common (rare) SARs are. If i had to guess, they have roughly the same rate as what HRs did since they essentially replaced the rarity. on top of this, there are less in a set (usually a max of 5: 3 pokemon, 2 supporters), where swsh era had one for every vmax/vstar and supporter that had a SR
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It would be really interesting to see the data for Scarlet & Violet. I guess I would assume the SAR would be the same rarity tier as SR since the SwSh Alt Art’s were SR’s but who knows? Maybe they are more HR rarity now? I always find pull rates to be fascinating. Thanks for sharing that video. Really was super helpful!
I love squeaksworld’s videos too. Is he also here?
Anyone can help me out, I wish to know the pull rate of Moonbreon JPN version.
nah it is all but confirmed that SARs replaced HR SAs specifically (and did away with generic HRs). there are no longer SR SAs. (non-glittery special arts).
^^ I think this is the pull rate for Moonbreon
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Interesting great to know! So Scarlet & Violet might have even harder pull rates? or they may have made HR’s easier to pull with S&V. Would be really interesting to see.
i would guess the chance of a SAR vs a HR is the same, but since there are less cards in that rarity, the chance of a specific one is higher
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Also I can confirm you can get two SR+ in a single box. I’ve done it twice now. One box of star birth had a SR and a UR (rainbow rare). Also one box of vstar universe I opened had two SAR!!! Super lucky box that one was.
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