But do you see what can happen when demand & hype shift? And that’s for low print things.
Rudy didn’t love Pokemon when he filled the bathroom. He just could afford to sit on it because he is stable. Just don’t over leverage.
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True, but that was more about gains not coming as soon as he hoped, plus massive reprints. The fact is still that Primal Clash (for example), after it´s last reprint, never really went down and is now at about 1K.
It’s because he could not sell it for more than he paid. And he pays less than almost everyone. Demand for this modern could easy vanish or drop significantly. He wasn’t selling Pokemon for massive gains back then nor did he have any real reason to expect that in the near future
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Yes, agreed, but there were massive reprints between 2016-2017. This affected these later XY sets badly. This was Rudy´s problem. The point still stands; if you buy boosterboxes for around retail price to 200-300 they don´t really drop if reprints are out. I could go on to name every set since XY Base and they all went up, up up. yes, sometimes demand is somewhat lower, but you don´t see a XY Furious Fists three years after release going from 180 one day to 140 three months later. I have not seen that happen anyway.
Just dangerous to be looking at the recent past as an example imo. This has been the most chaotic bull run in pokemon. And xy is recent past imo
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I think XY is somewhat of a difficult era to define. It is somewhat modern, but at the same time these sets are 10 to almost 10 years old. The older XY sets have Black & White print runs. They are rare. I actually think that XY (except for Evolutions maybe, but I also trust in Evolutions since it´s a cheap Base Set alternative) is old enough to trust in it as being stable.
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If you’re buying boxes at release pricing and wait a few years, it’s one of the least risky purchases you can make. It’s because the downside risk is virtually zero.
If you’re buying boxes at 10x release price, there is downside risk. It’s much more likely that an $800 box drops to $400 than an $80 box dropping to $40.
But compared to singles, the costs associated with storage and liquidity are significant. Boxes tend to hit a ceiling ROI of a few hundred per box in the medium term whereas singles are usually cheap so any growth translates into better ROI. Some skyrocket but most never move significantly. If you have a large operation, storage space and a way to move a lot of boxes, the boxes are probably a better choice. But for the collector that buys and holds a broad range of cards, singles is probably the more profitable path.
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I’ve expressed this sentiment on E4 before, but I figured its a good time to mention my thoughts again:
While I feel confident that SWSH / SV sealed will do decent in the near term (next 3-5 years), I think there is a lot of unknown about how they will do after that.
Sealed supply (and singles for that matter) for these sets are at an all time high, both because of record print numbers and a huge contingent of people “investing” in the sets. As time goes on and new sets continue to get printed, how strong will demand continue to be for these sets? Clearly we can boil down price trends to the relationship between supply and demand, and while I am confident supply will stay high, demand really is a big question. I can totally see a world where these sets go up to $200-$300, and then completely stall out. We are starting to see that trend with early SWSH sets that are 4+ years old and have stalled around $200-$250. While later SWSH sets hit $250 within 4 years, how long will it take for them to reach $400 plus? At that point how many people are buying $350 boxes of Brilliant Stars to open up?
Plus, everyone and their mother are recommending what you are discussing: to just buy sealed product and hold it, and you’ll make money. Its inorganic and based off of past trends. When large chunks of people are doing X, it can limit the potential growth/earning potential.
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Well, I see your point. There is a middle-ground however. I do not have a large operation by any means, but storing 50 - 100 boxes requires about 1 closet. That´s it. Storage is not a thing for me at all. This is obviously helped by the fact that I have been doing this for ten years, and so a lot of the boxes that I have have already appreciated a lot. If you were to start now, you would indeed have to buy a lot more modern boxes to get a similar result. Then storage can become an issue.
I do think that if you´re serious about investing in Pokémon, boxes are the best option unless you really have the connections to know which cards will move up, and for how long. Investing in seald is helped by knowledge also, but it is more easy to do if you lack (a lot of) knowledge.
Agreed. Note that I do not say that Sw/Sh will follow the pattern of past sets. I think so, but I am not investing a ton in these sets. Just some. Sw/Sh is more risky indeed, for both sealed and singles. So far though, it isn´t stopping. Every sealed box has appreciated. Your example of Sw/Sh Base and Rebel Clash (often named Rebel Trash) is not very good. These sets are still growing, but are being opened a lot less because they don´t have strong chase cards. Therefore their growth is a lot lower. Compare it to a set like Furious Fists. Furious Fists grows slowly. Why? Because, while it is a rare set (just as Sw/Sh Base is rare compared to newer Sw/Sh sets) it lacks any strong cards.
I´m guessing you are suggesting here that these Sw/Sh sets will not reach 400 plus within a year? While I do think that Sw/Sh is more risky, you will likely be proven wrong. Most sets will reach 400/500 by the end of 2025, and yes, they will be bought and opened up (that is how the market works, if they would not be bought than they would be sold at a lower price point).
The modern market is irrational, so I won’t speak in absolutes, but I think there is very little chance any non-ES SWSH sets are worth over $400 within a year. Again, as myself and others have noted, past trends are not always indicative of future conditions. We are entering into a period of great unknown with conditions that have never been seen before (biggest amount of supply ever, biggest amount of demand ever). It is solid that supply of SWSH sets are insanely high and will be for a long time, but the big question is how demand for these sets fairs over the next few years, as more sets come out and the prices of these boxes slowly rise.
To see $400+ prices for SWSH, most sets would need to see close to 100% increases in value within 12 months. What factors other than “line go up” indicate that this is a likely outcome?
Edit: I also want to make note of this part of your statement:
Whose to say the boxes that are bought are being purchased to open? I’d say that a fairly sizable chunk of people currently buying SWSH boxes are buying them to speculate/invest. That means that supply isn’t dwindling nearly at the right it would if everyone was purchasing boxes to open.
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Allright, Let me put it this way; when supply is dwindling fast (sealed boxes are being ripped left en right by private persons and Rip ´n Shippers), prints are over and the sets feature great chase cards while the hobby is growing (people are coming in a lot), what will happen then? The box price will increase. You say that you think the chance is small that a set like Fusion Strike will be a 400 dollar box by the end of 2025. You (and some others on this forum) may think that, but all the indicators say different. I don´t know what else to tell you. Yes, it was printed a lot, yes people are hoarding, and yes, the sets will probably rise (a lot). Less supply, more fans, good sets. Simple.
What is to say that new people coming into the hobby are going to focus or want to open a 3 year old set that costs double new sets? They have no emotional attachment and the costs are significantly higher than just buying more recent sets near MSRP.
Where are the guaranteed increases or continued demand? All I see are factors that will lead to a potential decrease in demand over time, which is the one thing that has been consistent with every single pokemon set ever released.
What has more demand currently: Burning Shadows or Obsidian Flame? Both of which are Charizard sets that are somewhat disappointing. Its Obsidian Flames because a) its more recent and b) cheaper to rip.
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I sometimes wonder if the terrible pull rates on modern sets (swsh onwards in particular) are actually hurting/will hurt the potential of these sets. I assume there is some ceiling to modern, but I wonder what that will be. At least with xy sets you could realistically pull some chase cards without opening a ton of boxes. Sm and swsh especially changed the game where you can buy cases and not pull half the chase tier cards. Thats gotta mean something? Doesnt seem to as of late, but in a few years? I guess this is just the demand discussion again. Just seems wild people will pay $15 for a single evolving skies pack… Is modern a boom 
or a doom 
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I completely agree that modern is more risky. There is more hype involved and so we can´t say for sure how much hype is the driving factor. But the fact that it is more risky is something else than contradicting the most likely outcome. Right now these boxes are far from the newest thing, yet they are growing rapidly. There is just no logical reason to think that this will stop in 2025. It can happen, but the signs say otherwise.
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They do have terrible pull rates. The human mind howevere is pulled toward ´the chance that´. So I don´t think that it matters a lot. There is the chance that you will pull that Moonbreon, Gengar or Rayquaza and because of this people are willing to take a shot. A set with one big chase card is always going to do better than a set without that factor. This is why Fusion Strike does better than Chilling Reign (for now).
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The only sign is line go up, the fundamentals don’t back it, but again the Pokémon market is very irrational and I won’t ever dismiss this ultimately being the outcome, I just wouldn’t bet on it.
I think we can just agree to disagree, feel free to invest as much as you want in these boxes 
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But do you actually watch investment video´s on the Pokémonmarket/study the market patterns ect.? Just a genuine question. You may obviously think what you want, but there really is a big chance that sets like Fusion Strike will soon hit 400. I will leave it at that too.
Yes I am very aware of the current market and its trends, I’ve been buying and selling since 2013, with a main focus on sealed that entire time. I’ve also watched enough pokemon youtuber investment videos to know that almost all of them would be the last people I would take advice from. The only way to truly get ahead of the curve is to do the research yourself and identify on your own trends that you can take advantage of.
When I ask for evidence, your argument continues to boil down to “line go up”, with no solid evidence to back it up, and referrals to past trends (ignoring market conditions at time of set releases compared to how they differ now) and hype.
As I’ve repeated multiple times though, the market is irrational, even without solid reasonings, SWSH boxes may spike up. I just would not make that bet. I’m not even saying they won’t rise over time or decrease in value, just that the rate of growth may stall for some time while supply dwindles to catch up to demand at higher price levels.
And for full discloser, I’ve got cases of SWSH sets. I timed my purchase and have target sale prices in mind to have the most efficient investment possible. I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
Anyways, carry on with your debate with others, I’ve said my peace 
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Carry on I will, but obviously I want to respond to this. You say that you know the market, but then make a comparison between later Sw/Sh sets and earlier sets. That´s just not a very good comparison. That does not make me think that your take in this is that argument-based.
Don´t blindly follow pokétubers, agreed, but you can do your own research and use some of the things they say with it. They aren´t all without real knowledge.
We´ll see how things look at the end of 2025 ; )
Let´s call it quits indeed.
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