As someone who invests in Pokémoncards (or anything), I think it´s important that you sometimes think about why you invest the way that you do.
With that mindset I was thinking about why I choose sealed over singles. The most important reason I came up with is that sealed (when I´m talking about sealed, I mean English booster boxes) seems to be immune to price drops.
I often see a card that I think is going to be very/a lot more valuable. A big plus is that you then have a (beautiful) card to look at. But then I remember that, even if it does, it can suddenly become a lot less valuable if the hype shifts, or not become valuable at all even though seemed like a card that would (popular Pokémon, low(er) POP, cool artwork etc.)
Sealed doesn´t seem to have this problem. It rises, even if it´s name is Emerging Powers. It never drops, unless it is a new set and it get´s a reprint. When a box reaches a certain price-point, you ´know´ that it is going to maintain that, whatever the market does.
The reason for this is not entirely clear to me. One of the reasons is that sealed product becomes a collectable of it´s own and, contrary to cards, get´s more rare with time passing. You also provide an experience, since unpacking itself is quite addictive. Still, even then it is very noteworthy that I do not know of a single case in which sealed product declined in price. I therefore cannot let myself buy a card when sealed product is available (although there are exceptions when I also really like the card, such as the Ancient Origins Rayquaza).
The only comment I will make on sealed is there is very little seller protection when you go to sell it. Singles have authenticity guarantee that eliminates risk of buyer scam
Sealed product has increased in value consistently over time! I speculate in sets I like, but think it’s important to keep in mind that returns in the last 5 years may not be indicitive of future value increases. We may look back on this time in 20 years as a spike that’s never replicated, or it becomes part of a long term trend.
Some points I think are important to consider with sealed speculating (I feel weird saying it’s investing):
Selling sealed can be a pain with people crying reseal or upset that there’s a wrap crinkle
It takes up a LOT of space, and if you really get into it, make sure you have appropriate insurance
It’s not fun to move if you do move
Make sure to account for seller fees, shipping, and taxes when calculating a rate of return
Yeah you want to think about where you’re putting your money either way, but they’re not the same. Buying shares of a company that generates revenue is very different from trading cards that have no inherent value. I have sealed product too, but it’s with the understanding that it has a much higer liklihood of going to 0 than a stock portfolio.
Sealed is like the basic ETF of Pokemon. Simple, easy, and will probably generate fairly respectable returns over time. I would say that if you don’t have a proven track record of generating value through other means and have a burning desire to “invest” in Pokemon cards, sealed is the way to go. I have always done better buying singles, but I also have 10 years of serious collecting experience.
However, there are problems with this beyond the cash-out and storage issues which @Will pointed out. We are already starting to see changes in the sealed market, where set strength actually is becoming more important. If we look at Shiny Star V/Shining Fates/Champions Path/Vivid Voltage, you name it, these are sets which released 3-4 years ago but have seen little to no increase over their release day prices. However, we also have Evolving Skies, VSTAR Universe, and Surging Sparks, which were released later, with more printed, and are eclipsing those other sets. If I had to bet, I’d say this trend will continue and we’ll get a growing divide between the “hot” sets and the “not” sets.
This reminds me of the sealed sports card market, which is historically much different than Pokemon. Most older-year sports sets really don’t increase in value unless they have top rookies in them. The ones that do can see serious increases, but this often doesn’t become apparent until several years down the road once the top rookies have established themselves as top players.
Now that the SWSH era is over, we can comfortably look back and say that Evolving Skies is probably the best set of the era. Silver Tempest and Fusion Strike are pretty good too. Nobody wants Vivid Voltage or Darkness Ablaze or Champion’s Path. However, if we remember back to when those sets released, they were hyped up like no tomorrow. Everyone thought they would be surefire investostonk wins, but they were overshadowed by later sets.
Will Paldea Evolved and Surging Sparks still be the top chases of the SV era once Prismatic Evolutions and Team Rocket all the back-half SV sets release? I don’t know. But I suspect that changes in the market might make sealed “investing” better off as a short-term value generating play than a long-term strategy.
The main aspect I consider now with sealed isn’t potential growth, its logistics. To make significant money with sealed you need quantity. This requires storage, time and work to process. For example, I have cases of Terastal Festival that I could flip and double my money, but to process everything at that margin isn’t worth the time value. Compared to stocks, you can hold indefinitely, they take up no space, and to sell everything is a click of a button. This is why when Fanatics was processing sealed it was a godsend!
I think sealed Pokémon stonking is a younger mans game. 10-15 years ago when I had less going on in my life I never thought twice about logistics. Now, carrying inventory for those past 2 decades, its a one of the biggest factors.
Then again most people aren’t holding long term so maybe my advice is irrelevant!
I really don´t agree with that (although I appreciate the discussion). I don´t think that there is a serious chance that Pokémon will go to 0. It is possible, of course, but the same goes for the stocks. Maybe the chance with Pokémon is somewhat bigger, but at the same time, the chance of higher returns is also bigger (if you know what you´re doing). Pokémon is the biggest media franchise out there.
Sealed product doesn´t generate interest in the same way, but it´s not that different. If Pokémon grows, you´re investments will probably do too. If Pokémon remains a lucrative business then people will open boosterboxes, and the price of your boxes will go up.
The way I´m doing it, less so though. I don´t hoard a lot of product, but buy some boxes that I (hope to) hold for 5-10 years. Let´s take Unbroken Bonds and Team Up as examples. These two sets, which I bought around 2020 are now about 1k and about 3k.
Selling boxes like that isn´t that much of a thing, because you don´t have to sell 100 boxes.
I’m not saying that there’s a serious chance Pokemon goes to zero, just that I see it as a more likely outcome than the stock market going to zero. I’m saying zero, but you can think of that as like a 90% drop or something, a big value shift.
For the stock market to have that kind of collapse, the world would be on fire, probably literally.
For sealed Pokemon to have that kind of collapse, it would be a huge interest shift, Pokemon decides to reprint old sets again like Yu-Gi-Oh, who knows. I don’t see it happening, and think it’s very unlikely, but think it’s more likely than an economic collapse.
Don’t want to get off topic from your OP, just trying to explain how I view investing and speculating differently.
I agree 100% I still buy every set in Japanese, and most in English, but have definitely skewed more towards the proven horses. I’d rather have an entire wall of 151 or Terastal Festival, than Ancient Roar.
Yeah, if a set is good and get´s about 5 years old it just seems a matter of time before it takes off. At that point it doesn´t really matter if you have to sell it at 70 percent of what it should be worth.
We see the same thing happening with Fusion Strike and Lost Origin now.
Hm, yes difficult discussions. I agree that there are differences, such as the stock market being safer, but I still think that it is not too different.
If you ask me, I trust in Pokémon making wise decisions (like not repringing older sets) more than I trust the stock market. But I could be wrong.
Its super simple in the fact that it will never be printed again after any mainstream reprints. Thats the main focus. However in recent times they are printing sooooo much that everyone is holding onto sealed which makes modern boxes moot once people get their chase cards. Recently pokemon has been printing so much to keep up with demand for everyone that it makes singles alot cheaper which in turn makes boxes not AS sought after. Everyone wins in a sense.
