“Bag holding” makes me think of bag ladies wandering the city.
I hopeno one goes homeless because they’re holding a FireRed LeafGreen booster Box, or an Ex Deoxys, and I don’t think anyone will, but I really think we might see at some point, those boxes start to hit the market for noticeably less than expected. Perhaps not.
I wonder how many bags were bought as investments vs collections.
I like to sit on the fence, so that I can see whether their grass really is greener…
…or if there’s a pile of corpses in the corner that they use as fertilizer.
Your initial statement is true if you purchase a booster box set around its initial release (not sure if you meant that or not). Just be careful that if you purchase a booster box 1 or 2 years after its release and it has already gone up in price, there is a higher risk there sure… but if you purchase it around the time its released for a good price and its an awesome set, I feel its a safe investment. Id be very very surprised if the new sets coming out today are still going for their initial msrp prices in 2 - 3 years. Very surprised. No matter if they print it to the ground or not. It just takes a little more thought and research nowadays for the best bang for your buck compared to 2015 when I first started hoarding booster boxes.
I would do your own research, explore the set, see the artworks and see if the hype is genuine. And invest in the sets you believe will have a healthy growth upon their initial release. Its a safer investment with better return if you do it this way. It has never let me down.
Exactly this. I have been doing this for about ten years too ; ) Sure, there are exceptions, but mostly sealed always rises (even at 300 dollar), which comes down to supply ever dropping while the people that want the sets (largely) remain. If this will be the case in five years, we don´t know, but there is little reason to doubt this.
Singles make more money. Sealed beats inflation.
Buy the popular characters when sealed in that set is cheapest. If you buy a sealed box at $100, The zard, umbreon,etc with the $100 probably get you 50-100 singles. Those singles will be worth more than that box. Easier to liquidate in factions. Sell off a fraction to recover the initial cost and the rest is pure profit. A box is ALL or Nothing.
Stop listening those idiot infuencers on Youtube. Sealed is fine, but a hassle . Be smart and do what most cannot understand and flying under the radar.
In terms of raw cards and majority of graded psa 10s… With enough time… The sealed box is always worth more than any single from that set, raw or graded.
But you are right with going for the singles too at their cheapest (estimates of course) because the can and tend to go higher than the loose packs and blisters etc.
A mix of both is what I’m going for now but leaning towards more sealed to target as the raw cards (within Europe anyway) are not justifiable buying opportunities at their cost given the poor quality of even of freshly pulled cards.
Yes, sealed over singles is what most people (that I know) would agree on, including myself. That doesn´t seem to be the consensus on this forum however haha. To each their own.
Singles can net you more, but the problem is risk. That risk is not really present with sealed, unless of course, Pokémon goes down.
I guess this sounds like bragging, but I can´t resist since this discussion is so recent. Here we are, Fusion Strike is at about 400.
I mean, I understand that you have doubts. That´s your right and there are risks with these high print-numbers in the future (I´m definitely not advising anyone to go all-ini on Sw/Sh onwards), but saying that it is probably not going to happen (Fusion Strike reaching 400 within a year) and getting upvoted for it, I don´t really understand.
Forgive me here, but it seems like you don’t really want to have a discussion about the risks and rewards of sealed product investing. Instead, you have a take on sealed investing that you want to argue about with other people who don’t have the same opinion.
Perhaps this is just a product of the time, but to me @cwebfan23’s original posts are very well-informed and grounded in a critical evaluation of the current market. Turning this into a 1 month long predict-the-future contest seems to miss the exact point that many of us who are skeptical of your “line go up” sealed product investing take are making in this thread.
Thanks for the reply ; ) No, I don´t agree with this. It was meant to be an argument based discussion about market trends and the risks of sealed products vs singles.
Saying that something that is very likely to happen (I have given a lot of arguments for this, backed by what is happening now) isn´t likely to happen with only abstract arguments is, to me, not very helpful, especially when the community backs this. But it´s allright. I wish you all the best (I really do). I´ll have these arguments elsewhere in the future.
I think the arguments are very clear. No one disagrees that historically holding sealed will most likely increase in value. The criticism is that it’s not the best investment. If the conversation is broadly comparing modern sealed to all of modern singles, obviously sealed is the easy answer. But the second you include trophy cards, or anything actually rare, and especially other types of investments, sealed stops being the best. It’s still good, but it has its limitations.
Speaking as someone that has been “investing” in sealed for almost 20 years, it becomes cumbersome, and you experience price ceilings. Also, as mentioned in my previous post, when you actually invest in sealed, you need storage. My investment in vti requires no storage space, has outperformed most modern boxes, and pays me a dividend while the line goes up. Not to mention something like vti is based on the total stock market, where many of my early xy boxes were based on prior popularity and hit a price ceiling, some haven’t moved in years, I’m looking at you flashfire!
Again, sealed is a solid easy move, but there are limitations which aren’t abstract. When you extend beyond modern, and Pokémon cards as a whole, those limitations become more apparent.
This won’t be the end of this topic ever but that response…
But on a serious note, I follow sellers of modern swsh boxes on CM… The same fusion strike box I know they bought from the pokemon center uk (seen the posts on the Irish discord) went up straight away for €200. They did not sell… Then up to €250… Still did not sell…
They now have it listed for €380 before shipping… They couldn’t sell it for €200 several months ago… What’s drastically changed in the market that it now justifies a listed price of €380?
The box is now nearly surpassing the cost of the raw chase cards (which we can all agree on are the gengar & espeon vmax)…
Gengar has a PSA 9 & 10 pop of 12,888 and Espeon 10,637…
The line has to be drawn at some point soon where the most logical thing to do will be just buy the psa 9/10 chase or mint raw (which is as easy as it’s ever been) vs the sealed box.
Paying $400 for a box from a set that’s only THREE YEARS OLD is utter stupidity and I feel bad for anyone buying at those prices because we know they’re only buying to hope it can double again in another three years…
It might…. I’d say it myself it could very well be a 6-800 €/$ box in three years… At those prices then… The PSA 10s will more than likely be cheaper as the pop report (currently 83.5k) will be over 100k and the buyer pool will be a lot smaller at the higher prices…
A buyer may well come in but chances are it will take time… A long time and in times of trouble looking back that stock or etf vs modern pokemon boxes will be the much more liquid asset to have in times of financial struggle or strain
There you go using logic again and assuming people buying modern think logically .
You make some solid points but I also think many of these arguments have yet to be proven right in 4+ years now. Eventually you’ll be right though.
Some counterpoints that popped in to my head to your post are below. Feel free to read but this is just my opinion.
I frequently adjust my prices based on the market price. If I’m not in a rush to sell and think the thing will continue to go higher, I’ll adjust the price up. You don’t sell your stocks at the same price forever if we have a huge stock market correction up do you?
It’s also never been about the price of the raw or graded chase cards. Look at evolutions, the price of the singles is not the reason that box was going for over $1000. What if the amount of people looking for an Umbreon or Gengar is double the PSA population? Doesn’t that mean it’s still in short supply given the demand?
Also maybe not necessarily fusion strike, but a lot of modern product and even vintage product is opened by breakers nowadays so that people can spend a smaller amount of money to still have the chance to get the chase card and “hang out with the community”. Plus mystery products need to get their product from a know legit source like booster boxes.
Not all the people buying pokemon cards make the best choices. A stock isn’t sexy and you can’t put it on display to flex on your buddies.
I guess my point is the market is dumb and doesn’t act logically. If you can make a few dollars taking advantage of that while still investing in more traditional investments like an index fund - why not do that?
We shouldnt say its a stupid thing to purchase a great swsh era set for $350+ sure it might be a little riskier but not stupid. I think not purchasing evolutions xy in 2020 for $185 was utter stupidity. I think not getting evolving skies at $400 (3 year old set) was utter stupidity. I think not getting team up for $400, when it was just a 2 or 3 year old set, was utterly stupid of me. Some people have different views on how the market works. If you believe that the box may very well be $800 in a couple years then its anything but stupid to purchase them for $350+
Stocks are obviously more liquid yes but Id sleep much better at night investing in sealed swsh era boxes than a stock or crypto. Anyday. When “times of trouble” come through, stocks collapse. Pokemon holds strong.
I feel like he was having a pretty healthy debate. Some others who responded to him also had a way more augmentative tone but you didnt call them out. At all actually. A lot of people can learn how to have a civil debate here. When you only call out one side for arguing but not the other side… its pretty hypocritical and doesnt get us anywhere.
Stating that the rewards of investing in sealed at msrp have heavily outweighed the risks in pokemon throughout its history, is a very valid point. And emphasizing that point shouldnt be considered “arguing”. Yes things have changed. The market is flooded with hundreds of thousands of new collectors since 2016. Stating that he understands there are risks and its not all sunshine, shows hes not just arguing but agreeing and debating. Pretty respectfully compared to others Ive seen.
There seems to be a high % people that spent their last dollar or go into credit card debt to be able to fill their closet with the same modern stuff everyone else also has. When crap hits the fan, the only thing people have to sell it Pokémon modern sealed. Everyone running for the flood gates at the same time will make this stuff very cheap
It’s a $350 risk with potential upside that more than likely will occur in the next few years (and hopefully it does) but then it’s a harder sell if and when it does.
I’m not against it at all but from my previous experience as a European with knowledge now of investing in the stock market. I’d rather take the side of the stock market now.
The European market is not like that of the USA. It’s a lot slower and there’s not as many people willing to spend four figures on sealed Pokemon items. As Pokemon continues to grow however, that may change.
It took me nearly 3 years to sell my €2,000 phantom forces booster box that I paid €295 for in 2017/18.
Also about two years to sell my Legendary Treasures 3 Pack Blister with the mew promo… paid €75 and sold it for €600
So I totally agree with the OP as I’ve seen it work myself but it’s a timeframe now that doesn’t justify holding in hope to sell for higher price to someone else in the future… It’s a potentially nice future payout but no one who’s how all this mass graded, hoarded sets of Swsh/SV era will pan out 3/4/5 generations from now.
If I was in the US however I might be more bullish as it seems to be a far more liquid market.
You stated “investing in pokemon (or anything)” which brings up a topic I would like to broach: why the hell are people buying vintage skateboard decks for collecting with no semblance of protective encasement?
There is no ‘sealed’ they come from factory in a box, maybe with some bubble wrap, or off a shelf. But seeing as these items can go for hundreds and thousands I just wanted to interject my personal gripe and desire to have casings much less grading services for this specific nich collecting genre.
I digress, in pokemon you would think sealed is king but I only see that in top tier items. Try selling a sealed Japanese booster with a crease in the crimp… I was lucky to get 75% of market value. People are more picky as they get to the bottom shelf…
I agree. I just think modern sealed still has a way to go before crap hits the fan. Its a tough call to make of exactly when we will see this and at what price point it will settle. I agree with what @cwebfan23 said. To a certain extent for sure.
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