TL;DR – Do you think the market will continue to support the price of these cards over the next two years?
Pricing FA Poncho Pikas has always been an enigma for me. Anecdotally they’ve always felt a bit overpriced given the amount of supply on the market despite how often they transact.
After looking at actual sales data I’m even more perplexed…
FA poncho pika’s have continued to rise in price post Q4 2020 hype. So much so, that the growth experienced throughout 2020 doesn’t even appear anomalous on the price chart.
The only reason I bring this up is because cards released Pre 2020 typically follow a predictable pattern of rapid growth in 2020, followed by a large market correction in 2021/2022 then minor price changes throughout 2023-2024.
I’ve included the price chart of a PSA 10 Mega Zard Poncho Pika and a PSA 9 Unlimited Charizard below to demonstrate what I’m referring to.
The exponential growth they’ve enjoyed over the last 4 years without a meaningful retrace throws up some “short term” red flags in my finance brain.
I have no doubt that they will continue to perform well long term but I’m curious what E4 thinks the price of these cards will do over the next couple years?
The Waifus, Scream Promos, Ponchos, etc. didn’t have their heyday in 2020. They really boomed last Summer 2023. We’re still in the correcting phase.
What prevents a huge correction is their immense popularity. Continuous supply each week at auction is meaningless when demand is so strong. There is always someone willing to speculate on Japanese XY promos.
I think collectors of the poncho pokemon (charizard, rayquaza, gyrados) also drive this success. Personally the ponchos and mario/luigi promos are my favorite that I own
That’s one thing I find interesting. The Ponchos actually did experience a larger price increase (percentage wise) in 2020 than they did in 2021-2024 which is something I didn’t expect to see.
I get what you are saying about the demand. I guess my biggest struggle with these is discerning how much of the demand is speculative and/or hype driven vs organic.
On one hand they feel a little “flavor of the week” but on the other hand they are awesome and I want one so idk what to think
I think ponchos / Mario are good where they’re at, but in my opinion there is sooo much more you can do with $4k to collect with than a single Mario pikachu and if I were to get a pika with that $$$$ I’d get a 2016 festa. I want em but I can’t justify the price / I am priced out of ponchos. There will definitely be future collabs with pikachu in the future and maybe more ponchos so you can at least collect a few.
If the hobby is to last then there would have to be cards that continue to go up in price just due to the amount of people in the hobby.
I’d argue that the higher the prices go, extending the spectrum would then help increase the prices of other cards along with it as time goes on.
Personally, even though I’d like to have owned these, at a certain point, it doesn’t make any sense to pay for them or any cardboard when you think what else the money can be used for. But that’s just me, many people do not think the same in this hobby or really any hobby.
Ponchos are just good cards. Besides being japanese exclusive, there are enough of them to make it a nice challenge. They are like a mini set. Also they aren’t too rare, or too common.
I’ve read your response many times yet still don’t know if you think the market will continue to support the price of these cards over the next two years.
I think the true market masters don’t get concerned with predicting up or down and instead just seek to minimize risk. In this case what is being said is that the downside risk is minimized by fundamental characteristics of the cards that make them appealing to a lot of people.
