Evolving Skies vs Eevee Heroes - Price Trend Analysis

Greetings comrades! Mostly I just lurk but with all the discourse going on surrounding current market trends, I just thought I’d throw my hat in the ring with some cool ~charts~. I wrote a much more detailed/wordy post about this on my blog that has some more charts and more of my personal opinions on it but are here the key takeaways:

Data Discussion

The data in the below charts is based on sold listings from (mostly) eBay. This was gathered over the course of many months by me and my friend Jon and classified using ML algorithms, to hopefully make it as accurate as possible! We also published it on github in case anyone wants to experiment or make visualizations of their own.

The charts show how sales from Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes have trended over time. Specifically, we’re looking at 90-day trailing averages and 30-day trailing averages (see the bonus graphs at the end!). By taking larger windows to average over, we can cut through the noise of daily price fluctuations and focus on actual market trends. It’s broken down further to compare raw vs graded cards and PSA vs CGC 10 cards.

General Thoughts

The Pokémon card market has seen significant price movements recently, and even though we all know the general “up and to the right” trend, it’s really fun to see this broken down!

By late 2024, Evolving Skies booster boxes were selling for record-high prices, and at the time of writing, the cheapest booster box on TCGplayer is listed for $1350. A major driver was the set’s flagship chase card, the Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art), affectionately called “Moonbreon.” The raw copy alone has spiked to around $1,500.

Why this sudden flip? Market sentiment toward English vs. Japanese cards can shift quickly. Japanese cards often lure collectors with limited print runs and pristine quality, but English sets have massive global demand. As some have pointed out, the absence of reprints for Evolving Skies in late 2024 created a perfect storm, ratcheting up scarcity just as more collectors re-entered the hobby.

Another possible explanation for the stagnation of Japanese cards could be the surge in popularity we have seen in Chinese and Korean cards. They offer a much more affordable alternative to English and Japanese cards. This effect is likely more pronounced for Japanese cards, since many collectors of English cards are less likely to switch languages. Elite Fourum has a few good threads on this specifically, and I thought this one was particularly good.

Average Sale Price Across Sets90-day running average price comparison between Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes JPN

Looking at the overall market data in the chart above, we see Evolving Skies (blue line) demonstrate stronger performance compared to its Japanese counterpart (orange line). While Japanese cards saw significant hype in early 2020 through 2022 (particularly around Eevee Heroes’ initial release), they eventually plateaued as The Pokémon Company in Japan reprinted many products to meet demand. By contrast, the English side did not get the same level of reprints for Evolving Skies, turning it into a red-hot commodity heading into 2025.

Raw Card Analysis

Raw Card Price Comparison90-day running average price comparison for raw cards

When we isolate raw (ungraded) cards, the story becomes even clearer:

  • English Evolving Skies raw cards have shown remarkable growth in the last six months
  • Japanese Eevee Heroes raw cards have remained relatively stable or seen only modest gains
  • There’s a distinct turning point (late 2024) where English cards begin outperforming their Japanese counterparts

The PSA 10 Premium

PSA 10 Price Comparison90-day running average price comparison for PSA 10 grades

The most dramatic data comes from PSA 10 graded cards:

  • English PSA 10s have shown a meteoric rise, continuing into early 2025
  • The growth has not shown signs of tapering off, with some chase PSA 10s commanding double or triple the raw price
  • Japanese PSA 10s, while appreciating, are not matching the English performance in absolute dollar terms

As many collectors know, PSA is still considered the grading gold standard for maximizing resale value. The brand recognition (especially in North America) gives PSA 10 slabs extra clout, which can account for the higher spikes we see here.

CGC and Additional Grading Insights

CGC 10 Price Comparison90-day running average price comparison for CGC 10 grades

One important note: this chart does not distinguish between CGC Gem Mint 10s and CGC Pristine 10s. While CGC Gem Mint 10s don’t fetch much of a premium, CGC Pristine 10s have actually begun to demand a premium in some cases.

Still, when looking at the data:

  • CGC 10 prices (both sets) generally trail PSA 10 prices
  • A CGC Perfect 10 or BGS Black Label can fetch wild premiums, but these are extremely rare, and not enough to move the needle.
  • For most collectors, PSA remains the default if you want top resale value, though CGC is closing the gap slowly

PSA 9 Price Comparison90-day running average price comparison for PSA 9 grades

We also wanted to show PSA 9 pricing data, as these can be another good proxy for raw cards, but with a more similar makeup to PSA 10 sales. (Since raw sales include many lower end cards as well, that wouldn’t be graded) PSA 9 trends are also robust, but the biggest standouts in terms of price changes remain PSA 10 slabs of marquee chase cards like the Umbreon VMAX Alt Art. By January 2025, a PSA 10 of that card hovered around $2,800 to $3,000, while CGC 10 copies were slightly cheaper.
image
(https://www.misprint.com/card/5710675).

That’s all! hopefully this was helpful for everyone. Also note Misprint is my site , I can remove any links if it’s considered self promo but I only included things I thought would be helpful, thank you!!

I’m excited to see what y’all’s thoughts are on this, and lmk if there are any charts or datapoints anyone would like to see. I have millions of sales data points and want more excuses to make silly charts out of them >:D

10 Likes

can we say that english has a higher price ceiling because of the bigger number of potential buyers and their respective wealth?

I don’t know if I’d say that as a blanket rule, but it might be a factor. There are lots of things at play. Even though the demand for English is probably generally higher with collectors who have a sufficient willingness to pay, the total PSA pop of English is also almost triple Japanese (see below, left is PSA 10 pop and right is total graded with PSA).

Lots of high-end collectors prefer Japanese cards for a variety of reasons, e.g. it’s the original printing, better print quality, better looking textures, etc.

That said, while a lot of the MOST expensive cards are Japanese exclusive, often times for set cards, English DOES command a premium. So probably amongst the MAJORITY of collectors there is a sufficiently strong preference for English to offset the higher population/lower quality issue!

Japanese:
image

English:
image

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thats the same argument they made in 2023 for when japanese were selling higher :rofl:

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Thanks for sharing, love to see it! Curious if this is indexed off the whole set or only the top performers? I ask because when I just compare the chase moonbreon in PSA10 for eng vs jp they are actually pretty similar (jp a bit softer atm).

(english on the left and jp on the right)

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This is of the entire set! It is more or less every sale of Evolving Skies/Eevee Heroes. It probably misses some low quality listings but probably captures ~99%.

And yeah totally makes sense, especially for Eevee Heroes I feel like they all move together. I think showing raw vs graded is helpful since I would GUESS (full guessing tbh I could go check the actual numbers but it’s late and I’m sleepy) that Umbreons make up a much smaller % of raw sales (since we are interested in the direction of the trends and magnitude it doesn’t matter so much that they definitely are far higher in price than the rest of the raw cards) and that kind of reflects in the data.

Idk if that makes sense?

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Oh also what site is this made on??

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Ok well they would’ve been wrong back then. English absolutely has a larger number of collectors than Japanese

That makes sense. I guess I was wondering if you only look at the marquee cards in the set if the trends align more closely. My theory (totally speculative) is that the middle and low end cards of the jp set starts to deviate from the en one over time while the chases tend to keep the trend but at a ~20% discount to en.

Oh also what site is this made on??

It’s my own, link is in my profile! :slight_smile:

1 Like