TL;DR: I wanted to document the rise, fall, and stabilization of the PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX Alt Art. Pries have appeared surprisingly stable for the past 5 weeks and represent an erosion of ~45% from the highs.
Data & Statistics
I compiled 371 sales of the PSA 10 Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX Alt Art from 9/29/22 to 12/27/22.
Non-USD currencies were converted to USD and rounded. Auctions and buy-it-now (BINs) were included. All sales data (including best offer prices) came from https://130point.com and are available upon request.
Each red dot in the figure represents an individual sale. The blue line is the moving average and I included 95% confidence intervals. The regression line was smoothed using a generalized additive model (GAM).
October saw an incredible increase in PSA 10 prices. Sales raised from ~$900 to over $1,500 at its height in roughly three weeks. The card cooled off at the end of October, and price decreases were sustained throughout November and December. The past 5 weeks suggest an erosion of ~45% from its high and a return to normalcy.
I think the data tells a coherent story about the power of hype and supply-demand.
Final Thoughts
I am happy to see stabilization over the past month. Most modern speculators believe that cards either increase or decrease over time. They often fail to consider a third option, which is trending sideways. Price stabilization is not exciting or hype-worthy, but it is healthy and ultimately needed for a card that has seen such dramatic swings.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Financial Disclosure: I do not own this card or a position in Evolving Skies.
Time & Patience Is Required, just hold onto it, I m sure you collected this card because you enjoy it, not because you were looking for quick exponential gain.
Clearly, nobody can predict the future, one can only speculate on either direction.
Price usually do not go high in a straight line, price do retrace, its normal and healthy … mostly governed by the supply and demand.
I guess the availability may be at its peak now due to the attention it got in the past few months. It’s obviously not a rare card, however it is scarce and will be further down the road. I believe the card will consolidate at this levels, going up and down in an narrow band going forward.
It’s an iconic card for an iconic era. Pokemon needed that. That will stay for generation to come. It is the “best of the best” of the Sword & Shield era. One card that any collector will want to own.
As you said, it’s good that price readjusted to an healthy ground at this point.
I never understood the extreme hysteria surrounding this card. It looks decent, yes. There are so many more remarkable Alt Arts, though. Umbreon tax is the new Charizard tax and it’s just as silly. Just glad I don’t need it for any of my collection goals.
I admit I don’t care for Moonbreon either. I’m not a snob about modern - I think lots of modern cards are beautiful. But this particular card doesn’t resonate with me at all. I suppose I should count myself lucky since I am not motivated to purchase it.
But this is probably the only the “crown jewel” card in the legacy of the hobby that I personally just don’t connect with.
EDIT: I will say it’s nice to see such a heavy-hitting canonical card that isn’t a Charizard.
It’s a great artwork, but personally my favorite of the eeveeloution alt arts is the Espeon Vmax. Especially in Japanese! Since it had a more niche release as a promo in the Eevee Heroes Gym box, a generally expensive product that had two booster boxes inside it and more (that I’d be surprised if anyone actually ever got for MSRP haha).
It’s a beautiful Kouki Saitou art that doesn’t really get talked about like Umbreon but I think deserves the same praise if not more. Since it released in English in Fusion Strike, not the most popular set, I feel like it doesn’t garner as much attention since all the big YouTubers and stonkers only like to open Evolving Skies . It’s still very hard to pull, but there isn’t a widely implemented Espeon tax to the degree of the Umbreon tax, so I’m interested to see where that card goes. Espeon is popular in its own right though!
Anyways, I guess I just wanted to mention Espeon Vmax haha. I don’t own one or any Eevee Heroes Gym boxes/fusion strike sealed product btw. Though I’d like to buy that Espeon someday
@humbleon Thanks for your comment. I don’t own the card, I just enjoy looking at trends over time.
I agree with @muk and @stagecoach that other alt arts from SWSH are just as beautiful as the Umbreon VMAX.
@Coop13 Great question. I tried my best to exclude fishy-looking sales that were ultimately relisted, but I am sure that I missed some. I was unable to document cert numbers. I will note that the highest sales were almost always outside of the US: primarily the U.K., Australia, and Canada. Could be influenced by the conversion rate and/or market supply-demand overseas.
I totally agree with you! Didn’t mean to come off that way if I did. I definitely think it’s an underrated/overlooked set at the very least. So many great cards/artworks in it.
. It’s still very hard to pull, but there isn’t a widely implemented Espeon tax to the degree of the Umbreon tax, so I’m interested to see where that card goes. Espeon is popular in its own right though!
