Just bought a case, gonna crack it and grade.
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I’m just gonna wait for the Evo power box
Idk what world you’re in, but cases of Evo are going for 2.3k+
there are 6 boxes in a case right?
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That awkward moment…
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Sweet !! Make sure you post the pulls 
A word of advice, if you open 2 booster boxes and the print quality is awful just cut your loses and sell the remaining 4. Then use that money to get another case…rinse and repeat until you get a case with good quality.
Slight dip in the prices on booster boxes. Seeing some in the $390s. Is this because of the Kanto boxes coming out?
Nah, that won’t affect prices of sealed boxes. They’re 2 totally different buyer markets.
Happens quite often during fast spikes, but will even out.
edit: Prices seem to be all over the place for $400-$700 depending on locations. Only boxes i’m seeing sold for ~$400 are dented or unsealed.
I’ve been seeing listings for single packs dropping in price over the last few days. Also, a couple of weeks ago there was this site I sometimes order from that had boxes on backorder for $200. They’ve since completely removed evolution boxes from their store, but I noticed it was on backorder for quite a while instead of out of stock. Is it possible there was a small reprint or something that was kept under the radar? or maybe it was announced and I just didn’t see anything about it? Canada btw.
I don’t notice any price drops. 10 packs being sold for $150! US exclusive Toys R Us CHARMANDER promos are going for $100+ I was shocked when my brother in law showed me about two hours ago.
Yeah, someone show me these price drops in Australia please lmao
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It’s going crazy !! Each week rising by like $50-100 next week will be like $750
I can give you some thoughts:
Evolutions as a set has more charizards graded (12,564) than 1st edition, shadowless, and base unlimited combined (11,049) …and it’s still fresh from distributors as of months ago. Yes, there are a few more designs in Evolutions, but my point stands.
There are boxes all over the market looking to be flipped for profit. People don’t seem to realise just how much there is out there.
Since most of the purchasers purchased with the same idea in mind there is likely to be some resistance.
Then you have to consider that there is likely to be a lot more cards sitting with PSA waiting to be graded right now.
Submissions over the past 6 months have been ramping up and the backlog means they more or less haven’t even been touched yet.
If demand can be sustained then that’s great. Looks risky to me though.
Australia often has supply squeezes and higher prices so that’s not saying much.
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I see you put a lot of effort into these analytics and they are interesting, but a lot of your posts seem fairly doom and gloom.
I’d prefer to see some contextual data that contrasts the demand for the set as well. Sure, there’s plenty of Evolutions out there, but there’s A TON being bought up because of the prices compared to WOTC sets.
I think a lot of people like me, see evolutions as a last chance to relive your childhood, actually pull cards to grade (like the charizard) and have fun. Regarding profit? That is why I got into it with about 20% reasoning being the fun aspect.
But the time it takes to get cards back from grading with PSA (unless spending $75 per card) might allow for the market to not get flooded. But I say might very lightly, because if PSA is doing this for supply control that is smart. But if it is just because no one is working there during covid is a long stretch. They are hiring so maybe. But it would be nice to think they are doing this to not flood any market with cards.
Either way, long term it is a winner. XY is a unique set, having the reverse holos is sick and I really think over time as usual with pokemon you will see the expensive charizard go up even more.
The fact that just about every charz has print lines or holo bleed is crazy to think about. The 10’s out there are so rare, so I think this could blow up just off of that alone.
Yes the supply is more than the rest, but print is now done. So I think we will see these xy booster boxes to go for 2k by the new year.
I would say that there is no chance that PSA is slowing down grading in order to not flood the secondary market. PSA probably could not care less about the supply / demand balance of graded cards. Their business model is literally dependent on pumping out as many graded cards as possible.
I also can’t predict the future but Evo boxes being worth 2k by the new year seems to be incredibly unlikely. There is such a large amount of supply of these boxes that I would say $200 is more likely than $2000 over the next 2 months. There are people with hundreds of these boxes, kept in mint condition since release. This is completely different to the early years (e.g. WOTC, early Nintendo) when the vast majority of boxes were opened and cards were played with. I can’t help but feel that modern sealed product is fundamentally different to vintage for this reason and rates of return should reflect this.
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2 months ago would you have said todays prices are unlikely?
Definitely. But I think a fundamental shift has occurred in the last two months with many new people coming into the hobby driven by major influencers entering. In other words, demand increased significantly. Supply, on the other hand, has lagged behind. That’s the reason why so many cards/boxes shot up so quickly - lines of supply at particular prices were cleared out and the price therefore jumped.
What we’ve seen over the last week or two is that supply is finally catching up, particularly for items that are plentiful - sellers have seen the huge price increases and are keen to sell at those prices. It’s possible that the demand/supply balance will now shift towards oversupply - which is why we might start to see retraces, particularly on items that are not scarce.
I could be wrong though! As I said, I can’t predict the future and it’s possible we could be seeing 2k boxes by January. I just think, on balance, it’s unlikely. As a caveat, I do think Evo will probably do well over a longer time horizon.
Is 2014 vintage now? Flashfire is only 2 years older than Evolutions and is 2k a box.
When the PSA chase card auctions for 7k, you bet people are buying boxes non stop at $500 regardless of supply: