Just wanted to talk about this specific card, as it has been a chase card for quite some time for myself. I am pretty up to speed on stuff but am having a hard time coming up with an offer for a card my friend is currently willing to sell to me. Here a few of the indicators towards value I have came up with alone:
COMPSThere was a PSA 9 for 47,100 last year, and a psa 5 for 10,000 last year. I try not to dig too far back to 2020 because we all know how much the market has changed since then and the special situation those prices call for. In addition, during my hunt, I saw a raw copy of what I believe to be a psa 5 sell in Japan for 10,900. I also just recently saw what I believe to be a 6-7 listed for 13,000 on ebay but was later taken down by the seller (I believe they were testing the market). I have been watching a psa 9 test the waters on ebay steadily lowing their price. I saw this same card being listed on intagram pages and it has been sitting around the 50,000 mark for some time.
BUYING MARKET Being a japanese card, despite being well know, I feel this is more niche and more geared towards collectors. Many people do not even know what this card is. I assume demand for it, despite being high on forums and talks, is actually quite low. It takes a special person to actually spend 15,20,30,60,80k on a pokemon card. I believe many would line up for other cards many more times then this one.
RARITY Extremely Rare and limited. Pop reports across BGS and PSA will support this. This is why I am trying to jump at the possibility to purchase below but I have been patient for roughly 2-3 years now and do not mind waiting.
So the situation is that my friend is willing to sell me his copy. The card is pretty mint, not going to lie. Surface I would personally grade as an 8-9 with very very very minimal light scratches that are only caught in certain reflections and not many at all. Corners I would rate as a 9 as they are nice and sharp with no whiting. Edges I would rate a 9, because as the corners, there is no whiting or anything. Centering I would give it an 8 as it is off center left to right on the front but pretty okay on the back. He wants to give me a âfamilyâ price of 24,000. It is a raw card. It is authentic.
I buy cards and trade cards to collect. I do not usually buy too much into rate of returns or investing into pokemon, that is just me. I am a financial advisor day to day and an accountant for a firm (I hate tax season) and I am in a position to add to my collection. With that said, anything over 5-10,000 to me becomes an asset. I just do not want to overpay or underpay. I know it is impossible to tell but I see copies on ebay just sitting forever at those wild prices which just tells me there is not a market for those cards at that price.
Just wanted to get opinions. I know there was another thread on this posted, but I find this situation may be more unique and the card is more situational to warrant a new thread. Any thoughts and insights are appreciated!
Itâs not a liquid card. Itâs more common than other super rare cards so there is always a copy available.
That said, itâs a cool one and what might be best is to look at the trajectory of other cards like university Magikarp and see where this one should lie.
It looks like you have most of that figured out and can go both ways. But buying safely from a friend does seem like a good opportunity.
As for price, maybe you could ask your friend to grade it first. As a raw card I would look to buy much cheaper than 24k.
Its a liquid card. The last PSA 9 sale was a $0.99 auction; literally liquidating.
The 24k price offer is fair if the card is truly 8-9 condition.
With that said, this auction is a perfect example of how not to sell a card: ebay.us/3M2PEB
Ironically if that started at $0.99 like a normal auction, it would do more than fine. Either way, 24k is almost half the last actual PSA 9 sale so you are more than fine.
Ironically that is the card Iâve been tracking! Seems like a motivated seller. The fact it has been sitting for so long really worries me. If it went to true auction who know what it will end at if that makes sense.
Itâs a seller who is not confident enough to actually sell the card. A perfect example where âhowâ matters. I donât even look at listings like that, or ones with reserves.
Totally with you - I guess my fear boils down to what if it comes back as like a 7. I handled the card and do not see it as a possibility but it is a gamble with raw cards. He did originally get it from overseas from a reputable seller but it is always those what if questions.
Love that suggestion - I guess my fear is if it does grade high (8-9) he may warrant keeping it or listing or trading. I mean the condition is evident, but that is an avenue that I will definintely explore thank you for that.
It has been listed forever, centering is really screwy but looks clean otherwise. Seller is pretty decent but like anything else it is a major risk. No negotiating, minimal contact, the travel and not to mention all the fees and freight and customs and site fees brings this bad boy much higher then listing price. I wonder why it has been sitting for so long though?
Just a word of warning, it seems that at least some of the copies of this card were given out in folders/envelopes akin to the English Championship Arena or Masaki cards such that there are small impressions/dents along two opposite corners. My copy has it and it was taken down from an easy 8 to a 4 because of that with PSA. Other grading companies treat this surface damage differently, but itâs something to be wary of.
I was not aware of the presentation of the card. The Masaki deal is something I went through with amazing condition cards gem mints to the eye coming back as 4-6. Were all copies given in envelopes?
Hello, it was nice to read a thread that shows youâve done your own research and not asking a simple âhow much is this worthâ question.
However, you state here that âHe wants to give me a âfamilyâ price of 24,000. It is a raw card.â
Yet in another thread you posted in an hour before this one you said,
âSorry to revive this but have an opportunity to purchase a raw copy for 16,000. I would guesstimate it is a 8 but letâs call it a 7 after grading. It has been a chase card for a while. Am I overpaying?â
Well I want it for 16,000 he wants to sell it for 24,000 and believes it is more than a fair deal, almost like he is doing me a favor. So there is an 8 thousand dollar swing between desires and both of us can make pretty justifiable cases on our target amounts. But as a seller he ultimately has final say
Thank you I guess - since I know the seller we are just negotiating that is all. What I am willing to pay is vastly different then what someone else may and others will sell. Just guaging the market price that is all to maybe curb or expand my expectations.
Anyone with a PSA 8-9 worthy raw copy, not grading it, is either sketchy or literally just throwing away money. Yes there is a PSA 9 on eBay thatâs been sitting, some thinking there may be surface damage on the card, but a couple PSA 8/9s have sold privately between 30-50k.
If youâd like to save time and stray from any potentional surprises with raw cards and grading, I have a PSA 7 I would happily let go of for 20k.
Your question doesnât seem any different from any other card (Tropical wind or not). Youâre trying to get a âPSA 9â card for âless than PSA 9 priceâ due to the fact that itâs raw, and youâre looking for some kind of guarantee on that grade from a raw card.
Pay what you are comfortable with losing if this comes back a PSA 6-7. Raw cards all carry a gambling premium if you are looking to lock in a graded value later. If your friend wants to secure the higher price, tell him to grade it himself so he shoulders that risk rather than yourself, just be prepared to pay up if heâs right (or get a discount if heâs wrong). If you want to take on that risk, bargain with him accordingly. It doesnât matter if he tells you itâs a PSA 8/9 unless he offers you a signed contractual guarantee that pays you out if itâs not.
24K for a raw copy, no matter how minty it looks, is not a really a âfamilyâ price.
I appreciate this response. I am not trying to get a 9 for a 7 price. Just simply gauging the market dynamics in order to properly negotiate or set my expectations where they should be whether buying from my friend or someone else.
