Aah, allright. But that still counts as Gen 9 right? Just as the ORAS sets were XY. I mean the late ‘gen 9’ sets.
I think it’s technically a gen 9 game but like HeartGold & SoulSilver (gen 4) and the LEGEND era they’re calling it separately. Mega Evolution doesn’t exist in Scarlet & Violet so it wouldn’t make sense to call it SV - it’s going to be M era
Semantics aside, I believe this ‘late gen 9’ era will behave independently of Sun & Moon and Sword & Shield year 3 cycles. Mega Pokémon will be the new highest tier chase for SARs, so there will less emphasis on standalone regular Pokémon (e.g. Giratina, Lugia) as set mascots. There are popular ones like M Charizard X but I feel the general preference is still the original versions of Pokémon. SAR Mega Charizard X ex also means there won’t be an SAR regular Charizard ex (stage skipped)
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Haha allright. I’m too oldschool to comprehend that. For me it’s just devided in Gen’s and as long as I don’t see a Gen 10 game, it’s Gen 9.
If anything, the Owner’s Pokémon portion this year may as well be the late-gen sets of Scarlet & Violet. All of them will explore a mixture of gen 9 and older. SV8a Terastal Festival ex (Prismatic Evolutions) was the culmination of all Scarlet & Violet gimmicks such as Tera and Stellar
- Battle Partners (Journey Together) - gen 5, 7, 8, 9
- Heat Wave Arena (Destined Rivals) - gen 1, 2, 4, 9
- The Glory of Team Rocket (Destined Rivals) - gen 1, 2 (maybe other gen? 7, 9)
- Black Bolt & White Flare (BW special set potentially) - gen 5 only
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I have to say though, Scarlet & Violet really is the best modern era by far, including Mega-sets or not. Gone are the days of Emerging Powers, Steam Siege, Crimson Invasion and Darkness Ablaze. There is not a real ‘dud’ set to be found. On top of that it features, probably, the most iconic modern set in 151. In that sense, to go back to the topic, maybe the popularity/high demand is real.
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There is a graph that has always shown how every big Pokemon trend goes:
We are most likely in the mania phase, in which people are doing wild things for Pokemon. Most likely after the 30th anniversary or earlier we’ll start seeing the blowoff phase. Your also right when you say that it’ll go down and then go back up, a classic bull trap. I think that in about 6-9 months is when we’ll get into part C of this hype, and by about 12 months we’ll see the blowoff phase in full effect.
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That’s a good graph. If we are taking the covid boom (2019 - late 2021) then this is pretty much exactly what happened, with the build up being 2019, the peak being late 2020 and the fall starting in the summer of 2021.
I do think that this might be different though. Normally we would start to see a decline this summer based on previous data (build up late 2023 - late 2024, peak somehwere in 2025, blow off early/mid 2026. However, because there are two pretty big games coming (I’m assuming Gen 10 will release late 2026 and will be something special) and we have an anniversary year it could very well be the perfect storm for a very long hype period. In the covid hype it was still somewhat niche, but now everybody is doing Pokémon, and then there’s all the people who are tired of the hobby because of these price jumps, but will move back in as soon as prices drop. I don’t see it falling off that much (except for specific singles), but I could be wrong. The print numbers are something new, that’s for sure.
I wonder if gen 10 could create more of a negative impact than a positive one.
If gen 10 is bad, that means more than likely hype might start dying out, but with celebrations, it could be enough for it to continue. If gen 10 is good, it might increase hype and further prolong the bubble
If 30th anniversary is good, It’ll definetly solidify the bubble probably to even your projected year, but if not, more than likely my prediction would come through.
Gen 10 bad/Celebration bad: Hype dies out
Gen 10 good/ Celebrations bad: Hype turns into panic and gen 10 will temp prolong hype, but will still die out
Gen 10 bad/ Celebrations good: Hype will decrease slower, prices for new sets may stay low, while old sets may jump (WILD CARD)
Gen 10 good/ Celebrations good: Hype stays until your projected date.
Yeah, if they don’t deliver a great game for Gen 10 then I don’t think some good TCG sets can safe the hype from dying quickly mid/late 2026. I have high hopes though seeing as (in my opinion) the last three mainline games were mediocre, and Pokémon knows this. This could be why they chose a four year time-frame instead of three.
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This doesn’t make sense to me as someone who had a discussion with a person selling their collection in 2005.
returned to the average
““average”” is on the ground to me.
PS -I think we might be in the bear trap phase. I noticed that graph is missing Section D 
i just believe the way is up, the way i see it in my country the hype is getting higher… lot of old collectors coming back to the hobby, i dont think Pokemon will drop anytime soon
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