When do you think the current Pokemon bubble will end?
1 Month
6 Months
1 Year
2+ Years
This is the new normal
0voters
Since November 2024, it’s been a crazy ride for Pokemon card collecting. Modern product remains even more unobtainable than before and many cards have exceeded previous highs from the 2020/2021 pandemic bubble.
Is there a light at the end of the tunnel, are we going to be on this wild ride for another couple years or is this just what the state of collecting will be like from here on out? While nobody can predict the future, I’m curious on what people’s thoughts are as whether good or bad, we’ve all been affected by the market conditions of the past half year.
Definetly not the new normal, but it’s gonna be like this for a good bit of time. We are at stage B of the graph, so it might be a year, 2 years, or even 6 months from now. The important thing is to not lose hope and give up on everything, saying it’s the new normal.
This is not normal and never will be normal. Accepting it for what it is will not help the case either, only makes it worse.
By the looks of this year’s schedule, TPC will want to continue growing interest with upcoming releases and popular Pokémon coming back to the forefront of chases:
Mega Brave - Mega Lucario set
Mega Symphony - Mega Gardevoir set
Mega Gengar ex / Mega Diancie ex decks
Inferno X - potential Mega Charizard X set
Maybe a High Class set at the end of this year?
There’s also potential of multiple Simplified Chinese exclusives to chase after seeing they’re not limited to special promos or Gem Packs. This opens the door to a lot of things for the future:
TCG Pocket should be approaching the $1 billion revenue mark soon, it already surpassed Pokémon GO at the same pace
It’s really insane how impactful yet diversified this past half year has been, and we’re not even at the 30th anniversary yet - which is one of the more important milestones in gaming/tcg
IDK when exactly … Sometimes I’ve asked myself the same question and I’ve thought that it might end in like 10 years or more … Currently prices are extremely high, but as the saying goes “Todo lo que sube tiene que bajar” (everything that goes up must come down) … might take a long time, but there’ll be a moment when market prices goes down …
Tbh, the magic of collecting ends when people focus too much on “Market Value” and “PSA10” and start to treat as if they were money … it only makes prices to rise …
And it’ll never be normal that a group of dudes start fighting in the streets for a sealed product.
What exactly is the bubble and what is included? What’s most interesting to me right now are not the record prices, its the widespread sales volume that isn’t limited to one category or language. That is a bigger beast to tame.
I like to think of it in terms of macroeconomics, Pokemon does not exist in a vacuum. There are people out there that get paid 7 figures a month trying to be ahead the curve on that. That’s when things are “normal,” not necessarily when things are particularly volatile and unpredictable, like they are right now. So not only is it impossible to answer but any approximation of an answer would involve politics.
That said, the 30th is clearly the most separable event within the hahbee and people will probably be on their toes right before, during and after it.
I think prices for modern will cooldown over the next 6 months as we’re currently seeing the of start now. The franchise as a whole is at an insanely popular level now, which although I think will probably also cooldown at some point, that even if a mass exodus of newer collectors/investors happens we will most likely still have a larger demand pool than previous post hype phases.
English PSA 10 graded primarily, but really anything desirable or deemed a “chase”, ranging from wotc to mid era BW/XY to modern. Even lower grade “chase” cards are seeing increases of 2x - 5x from before last November. Some desirable Japanese exclusive promos are doing quite well too, though some have barely moved as they are quite niche.
Less desirable cards have still seen modest increases of 1.5x too but that may just be more due to the increased interest. JP set cards that have an English equivalent haven’t really moved much.
Only a small section of the market is actually in a bubble. It’s still possible to pick up vintage PSA 9’s for roughly the same cost to actually grade the card - especially Japanese.
Please add “We’re not in a bubble” to the options.
There really arent that many segments of the market that have significantly increased in value. Ultra modern sealed, blue chip vintage (Gold Stars, Shining etc) and a handul of other cards that have been shilled by influencers.
It would be like saying “we’re in a housing bubble” if only a new builds and mansions expericed an increase.
With Z&G ebay listings, I can find a hell of a lot more cards that are selling for less than they were 5 years ago, than cards that are selling for more than they were 5 years ago.
It depends on how granular you want to look at things. I selected the “new normal” option because scarce cards have been relatively expensive since like 2020. Maybe I’m not in-tune enough with the market to see a bubble. Outside of PSA 9’s and 10’s, things seem pretty chill.
There are always going to be cards that stay stagnant or retrace in price. Bulk commons, low grade or poor condition vintage JP holos are not really indicative of the absence of a bubble. I don’t think sheer numbers is a good metric for this.
The bottom line is anything even remotely desirable is going up at an inorganic rate. Stuff that is decently desirable are still seeing increases across the board in a “trickle-down” effect.
Well, we can also look at the other side of this and say “we’re not in a housing bubble” because igloos in Antarctica have gone down in price from 5 years ago.
I think set cards, especially modern, will retrace a bit, as they always do. I cant really speculate too much on specifics beyond that.
Im reluctant to use the word bubble. I think this is a typical bull market for Pokemon at this point. A lot of people with more spending money than sense enter the market over a few months, shit goes crazy for a while, then eventually people get bored and exit. Some people stay, market settles to a new normal, then some catalyst triggers the hype again.
Im sure in-print products will be available again as they were last year, at some point. Everything else, who knows. Some stuff will retrace a bit, some stuff a lot, some stuff will continue growing. Thats my opinion. Im probably gonna focus mainly on saving money for now, in anticipation of prices correcting sometime in the future. Whether that will actually happen, idk, but thats what my strategy is (outside of picking up decent deals here and there)
