As a disclaimer. This is not something I believe will happen. I just thought it’s an interesting thought experiment and curious about your opinions.
When I read comments and posts in modern investment groups like Reddit, IG or FB. A lot of people are betting on a popularity and price increase for the 30th anniversary.
I think a lot of people are vastly overestimating what is going to happen on that anniversary.
Now that things won’t go as they expected this could cause a mass sell-off for especially modern products because many people were hoping to sell their products around that time when prices spike.
When the prices won’t go up, they don’t want to be bag holders or are tired of waiting and free their capital to do other things. This could cause a big sell-off, especially for modern product that was stashed away but private “investors”.
The end result probably won’t be that drastic but nonetheless an interesting thought to discuss.
Every few years, a cohort of children who grew up on a certain generation will enter the workforce (aged 18-26 on average depending on school, military occupation, etc.). In 2026 (30th Anniversary), kids born between 2000-2008 will be obtaining disposable income. Those kids will likely have grown up playing Gens 4-6. So if anything, I would expect the 30th Anniversary to bring some of them back in, leading to a small uptick in popular Pokemon from Diamond & Pearl, Black & White, and X & Y.
Only prices I can see dropping are the Gen 1-3 games if they put them on that Nintendo Online service or if they add them to the eshop. Otherwise, all I see is more attention coming to the tcg if they announce a special set or something.
Has the anniversary ever caused prices to go up or down? I can’t help but feel it’s such a naive way of thinking. We pretty much have an idea of the products and events that actually moved the market.
2016 was the 20th anniversary and it was also a big year for Pokemon. But the sets themselves are… a bit lackluster.
Generations was the actual 20th Anniversary set. Did it move the market? not really. What did was Pokemon Go. It was on the 20th Anniversary but not dependent on it.
Here are the users that joined e4 per month over time.
You can see a new average begin after the release of Pokemon Go. I have a feeling Evolutions was an important set to drawing people in and piquing interest. But it looks like S&M base is actually a peak point in terms of new users.
Google trends for “pokemon cards”. The first spike is July 2016 → Pokemon Go
The release of Evolutions corresponds to where the downtrend begins actually.
You can see the interest spike again in terms of e4 memberships at the start of the pandemic. These are the “early adopters” of the pandemic and what really set it off was the Logan Paul box break. Note this was the end of 2020, the 24th anniversary.
Champions path and Vivid voltage were huge sets that pulled in a ton of people. They were released in 2020. Shining Fates released around the 25th anniversary. Celebrations was probably the true 25th anniv set but was pretty mid.
In summary, the 20th anniversary was big because of Pokemon Go. The 25th anniversary was big because it was the peak inertial moment triggered by the pandemic/Logan Paul box break. The 15th anniversary… does anyone even remember it? I think people are misidentifying the reasons why 20th and 25th anniversaries were so successful. It has little to do with the calendar year and everything to do with things that were happening outside of what TPCI’s was doing. And of course, since we have two datapoints it’s easy to draw a straight line and say the 30th anniversary will be the same. To me, it’s not guaranteed. It all depends on whether there is some Pokemon-based news story or event that captures the attention of the general public. The 30th anniversary alone can’t do that. And there’s not a good reason to think the next time that happens will be on the 30th anniversary.
I remember the hype Bozos going on and on about the 25th anniversary coming up and how it would raise prices up again then complaining about Celeb not being what they expected.
I would think Pokemon would try and release something big (probably not related to TCG) for the 30th anniversary and indirectly bring more people into the TCG.
I agree though that strictly in terms of TCG, I doubt the sets they release will cause any waves within the Ultra modern product. Except a possible reimagination of Johto or Hoenn card set…that I believe would bring in a lot of hype/people back into Pokemon.
Istg if we get another kanto set for 30th anivv. I love kanto dont get me wrong, but johto is where its at. Maybe 251 Who knows. i just want a johto centered set. Maybe 251 this year for johto 25th anniv tho. Or like Pokemon Evolutions Johto Style.
Pokémon will have to do something much more significant for its 30th anniversary to see similar activity spike to its 20th and 25th. One Piece with its behemoth 27 year history and fanbase entered the tcg last year. If they keep the momentum up general tcg spending might be shared between these IP over the coming years, at least in Japan
From what pfm said, it would appear that it cannot be something that already exists in the space that will create the wave of interest which means no TCG set will be able to do this on its own, no matter the theme or the art.
One also has to wonder with Pokemon Go and a pandemic fuelled OG box break from a massive YouTuber, how many people are really left untouched at this point to either reactivate or be introduced into the space? Go especially introduced the franchise to a lot of people who were not fans initially and its continued existence sitting at the most casual of entry points would also present as another obstacle. They are already a variety of games like Unite, Masters and Sleep targeting different gaming demos,
The two areas I see potential (1) in are a visionary movie or series that captures the essence of Pokemon but does not retread close to existing storylines like redoing the anime or retelling the stories of the main series games. For mass appeal it would not be traditional 2d animation and might even potentially need actual actors, though a 3d animated version would work as well. Detective Pikachu does not meet this standard and was a terrible movie to boot.
And (2) Pokemon finally venturing into the MMORPG genre. This would create a bit of, if not a massive rift with the traditional release schedule and also how Pokemon is primarily sold/introduced/released so I’m not sure it’s likely anytime soon if ever. Technically they have already started the trend of introducing Pokemon throughout the generation instead of just at the start and also introducing Pokemon in other games (Meltan in Go) but this to me would signal a multipolar franchise which would again take a lot of vision to pull off.
And even if one or both happens successfully, there is obviously no guarantee that cards will be swept up in the interest immediately if ever. I would also make the prediction that art will prevail over rarity so the next few years of sets will also be instrumental in creating interest to come back and to see what they have missed. That’s why even though they are cheap for their pull rates, illustration rares are a good thing only hampered by the awful print quality. Reducing print runs (if it happens) will also be good.
As I have mentioned before, I really don’t think that there will ever be a significant resurgence of interest in card rarities that are already struggling today; rainbow cards, CGI SR Pokemon including the originals from BW, CGI normal RR cards (ex, V, GX, EX).
Don’t really have much to add to @pfm’s great post and @dyl’s as well. I personally believe that the 2016 boom was much more the result of demographic factors than Pokemon Go. I think Pokemon Go was excellent at getting more casuals interested in the short term, but whether it developed fans willing to spend thousands on cards is much different. The 2020 pandemic/Logan Paul boom was much more effective at that for a multitude of reasons that would probably require an essay to fully explain (crypto, investor mindset, large-scale shifts in Pokemon’s marketing and direction).
I concur with pfm’s point that the anniversary on its own won’t magically jump prices outside of a self-fulfilling prophecy/short-term bubble of everyone expecting it to boost prices and thereby making it a reality.
Honestly, I kind of question whether Pokemon has anything left in the tank that can really kickstart interest like CP6/Evolutions and S8a-P/Celebrations. Evolutions was special as it was basically a direct Base Set reprint and the first we’d had since Legendary Collection. They reprinted old cards not only from Base Set in Celebrations. Part of the reason those sets were so impactful is we hadn’t seen anything like that yet. But now it seems every year we get a Base Set reprint in some way. “Collecting” isn’t a dirty word to TPC/TPCi anymore.
If I had to bet, I’d put my money on the 30th anniversary being a really fun time for fans. The larger market conditions at the time will be much more determinative of the direction of Pokemon than the anniversary existing.
I don’t 100% agree. I think we can point to sets that did a good job of engaging people and keeping them in the hobby. Like Evolutions, Hidden Fates, Vivid Voltage. But yeah, we agree that their role is to provide an entry point - which any set can do but some do it better.
When we are talking about the events that catalyze people into becoming interested in the first place, I agree it’s historically not because of some anniversary or some new set. It’s because something breaks through into the mainstream. Hearing about Pokemon Oreos being “worth $10000 on ebay” on a local radio station does more to grow this hobby than any set. Hell, those thicc Pokemon NFTs probably grew the hobby more than we give it credit.
But where I slightly disagree is that I believe a set can indeed do this. The LotR 1/1 Ring is a really good example. But I can’t think of a comparable example in the Pokemon TCG. Maybe the Van Gogh promo. That’s the value of the IP being so broad I guess. The TCG doesn’t have to be the side that breaks into the mainstream.
That’s a lot of words just to say that a TCG set can make big waves but it hasn’t really happened in Pokemon.
I think the bigger question is the 50th Anniversary (bigger milestone) . I’ve talked to a lot of people who claim they will sell off and use some of the money for their kid’s college or towards retirement savings. Too much speculation on future anniversaries being a boom could make people think its a good sell-off opportunity to anticipate.
except nowadays pokemon cards are immediately sleeved, and everyone is buying more and more. Cards are no longer rare to get Gem-10s. Because everyone is buying pokemon as and investment rather than to play the game.
They arent reliant on them being a boom. they are reliant that the amount of people into pokemon doubles, triples, or even quadruples by then, which isnt feasible. Except Maybe Doubles is, but it took us 28 years to get here. We may be the largest community, and the one growing the fastest, but we wont be able to completely double it in 22 years, especially since parents are starting to have less and less kids.
If you’re planning a 22 year investment plan in Pokemon, maybe consider looking at a more traditional option like index funds instead.
Pokemon has been pretty good in the short-term, (like on a scale of a few years) but if you’re banking on future wealth on the scale of 50% of your working lifespan, you’re probably way better off making continuous deposits into an index fund.
I like this post, but I don’t agree on the boost for later gens. I think we are past the age of anyone who collected or cared about cards, which mostly ended with gen 4 so that nostalgia isn’t there imo.
Hmm, that’s a pretty odd take. There are plenty of young people who opened B&W and X&Y era cards in childhood/adolescence and cared about the cards. The nostalgia may not be there for people in your age demographic, but it might be among the young people. I guess we’ll have to wait and see over the coming years as new e4 members join from younger cohorts.
Sure, people opened cards but Pokemon cards were mostly dead in the mainstream from 2005-2015. I doubt there will be enough younger people out there that care enough to pay higher than what the speculators have already done to those generations in the last three years (searching for the “next big thing”)
I think we will be surprised. There is plenty of room to grow on sealed product from that era. B&W shining full arts are still undervalued in my opinion. XY-era promos are some of the best released. There’s plenty of love heading to BW and XY, and Legends Z-A may help with that too.
then complaining about Celeb not being what they expected.