Yes, I think many are overlooking this in the modern market. Not only are the cards not getting played and handled (or very rarely), but the overall print/card quality is also far higher on average than previous eras as well. So it’s unlikely down the road that most collectors will struggle to find mint examples of all the chase cards.
It’s definitely much more speculative, and I think the main thing to acknowledge is that what worked in the past may not work in the future going forward because of all these fundamental changes and differences at play now. I’m sure sealed will inevitably go up, but I don’t think we’ll see the same overall % returns like WOTC, Ex, etc.
One of the biggest reasons I’m no longer buying sealed product to sell is I think it will be harder to offload. I’ve never had an issue, but it seems like so many buyers are paranoid that their box is resealed or fake.
Maybe that’s overblown in my mind, or maybe it will change, but it‘s hard to gauge accurately and there are far more people on reddit/facebook/instagram where this sort of thing breeds.
I do want to start buying boxes with the intent to open for fun down the road, though.
I think investing in all the SWSH alt art sets for the longer term (5+ years) is not a bad idea at all. Obviously the print runs for all those sets have been massive, and there are most likely way more people holding on to sealed product. But the reason that so much of it has been printed is because there is so much more demand for it. So many people are enjoying opening modern sets now because of the wide range of great chase cards in almost every new set released. Everyone who’s ever felt that joy of pulling a crazy alt art will remember that, and I think that feeling will help carry demand for years to come.
Let’s just take a look at Evolutions here. Everyone knew that the print run for Evolutions was gigantic. And even though it’s considered a great set by many, the chase cards aren’t all that valuable raw. No one expected the price of Evolutions booster boxes to go up as much as they did. I don’t think it’ll be any different for the most popular SWSH sets.
While I agree that modern sealed collectors have increased, I think that some of you are vastly overestimating the number of sealed collectors who can just afford to throw tens of thousands of dollars of product into the closet and forget about it for 5 years given the state of the economy. Not everyone can afford to have a Rudy Pokemon bathroom
The main difference between vintage and modern boxes is supply as we’re getting close to the point where people are only buying some of these pricier modern boxes to keep sealed. As previously mentioned in this thread, post 2019 boxes are a completely different ballgame where hordes of people are, well, hoarding product.
As an example, if I have the funds for something like an EX Dragon booster box, I’m more constrained by availability than price. However, if I’m looking for an Eevee Heroes gym box I could just put out a request on social media and have dozens of people sliding into my DMs with offers.
The person I replied to was wondering who would spend 2k on an eevee heroes box in the future when the chance of making your money back in pulls will be really low. I simply responded that at that point, buyers are simply buying the booster box to have it and not actually open, similar to vintage booster boxes.
For me there’s far too much time wasted on these debates. As Rudy often says, the market will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. And that applies to many asset classes. Buy some sealed modern if you want to, and watch it go up over time. Might go up 5%, might go up 500%, it’s part of the fundamental idea of risk, you have to make a decision. There are just too many unforeseeable variables that are in no way organically linked to the TCG that can affect price trajectories. Covid, for instance. Nobody will ever make a perfect call and we have to accept that. Diversify, invest in/collect what you like or understand the best, and move onto the next opportunity while your assets do the work over time in the background.
Always depends on your risk appetite. I think with each bonkers sale or consistent price increase it is getting harder and harder to deny that modern Pokemon is a juggernaut and is behaving in the complete opposite to how we’ve seen things go in the past, especially in Japanese.
But, as I’ve mentioned in several other threads, it is highly risky. And usually the best place to put your money isn’t the easiest place to put your money.
Well that’s why I have a box too, just for display. But I think if that is going to be the purpose of keeping sealed modern then there’s no way that the current growth is going to last forever is probably more what I’m getting at. At that point we are looking at the potential of the box itself as the collectible which is an unknown for modern.
It matters in the short term, and doesn’t matter as much in the long term. As with all sealed product, as time goes on, more and more will be opened, and this number trends toward 0 sealed being left. It will take much longer for these modern boxes to reach those numbers, but it will eventually reach 0.
