Vintage.
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Lock the thread, we have a solution.
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Tempting.
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I think vintage packs and cards will continue to rise, especially if grading companies start recognizing card variants. The overall supply keeps going down daily. I went to two different card shows and saw zero vintage packs across maybe 75 vendors.
100%! Even just market conditions changing. I picked 1st Ed base because it hasnât re-supplied like it did during 2020. Even if there isnât a ton of new demand, supply is drier, and will probably affect prices.
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I just think there has been a paradigm shift where cards that donât create forum headlines with x multiplier are considered slept on. From PSA 10 1st Base to PCJ exclusive SM Pikachu promos to ARs from 2 years ago, growth fast or slow is still growth and can been seen through elevation of price floors after each popularity surge
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In 2014, I was introduced to âmodernâ Pokemon cards of that time. Modern consisted of the Black & White and XY eras back then, and Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby were making headlines. Problem was, I was not interested in what the TCG now looked like, so I spent my money and time on MTG instead when I visited my LGS.
I bring this up because if I were to be introduced to modern in 2025, my opinion would be completely different. The card art is much better and it has something for everyone. Social media has definitely improved the perception of Pokemon cards, along with the catalysts of Pokemon Go, COVID lockdown, Pokemon Pocket, and an endless list of influencers and personalities, but I genuinely believe that the product is better today, at least compared to what I knew a decade ago.
Regarding âwho has the future,â I think both do. I canât see a world where modern disappears now that TPC/TPCi has found their magic formula. I am a vintage collector through and through, but even I canât deny the appeal of modern in the age of alt arts, illustration rares, and special art rares.
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Yeah, I can agree with this. Black & White, and to a degree XY (I did love Ancient Origins) sucked. But now, I kind of love these era´s. Black & White was just so bare bones that it makes you appreciate some lesser cards a lot more. I also think rarity remains a thing when talking about these sets. A lot of the Black & White era sets are very rare, especially in sealed.
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From a collector that appreciates the history of Pokemon and its journey through the years, vintage cards certainly deserve higher prices in todayâs market as there is a unique eye appeal to them that invokes memories and nostalgia to the beginnings of the hobby; this by itself brings a form of value that modern is unable to provide. From an investing perspective, vintage cards mostly grow at a steady pace aside from stuff like your gold stars etc, because they get scarcer by the year and availability slowly trickles down; modern on the other end experience very volatile movements and experience different waves of hype due to changes in collector preferences and heavy market manipulation.
With that said, if it is part of anyoneâs plan to grow their collection at a possibly quicker pace, and they have the capacity to handle the volatility of the modern market; to completely give up the modern market and going all-in for just stability in vintage might be giving up too much of an opportunity cost. Having stake in the modern game allows one to understand what the masses in the market today are thinking, as people tend to put in efforts to understand and study prices based on what they own. Over time I guess this can help us adapt a more neutral mindset when viewing the market through a different lense.
As for why vintage overall is still progressively slower in terms of growth at least for the past couple years, I personally feel that lesser and lesser people (especially newer collectors) are making that distinction to collect either purely vintage or purely modern. As such, without any specific preference they would usually end up with the more easier to access modern cards; not to mention vintage wotc PSA 10/old back PSA 10 of popular pokemon usually have a higher barrier to entry; and a wider percentage of people in this hobby still prefer to see a 10 on their graded card. When people have a stake in more modern stuff, they subconsciously gravitate towards it over time. Nowadays I am heavily invested into both vintage and modern; as I dont see why I couldnt just own both a 1st ed zard and some copies of the 151 SIR zard (saw rusty purchasing some 151 SIRs from his video not too long ago as well), as well as some corocoro mews for vintage and bubble mews for modern. Best of both worlds 
v.
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An interesting argument. As you said, 10´s are the only thing that counts in the mind of new fans, and many of the 10´s are upwards of 3K. At the same time though, this also goes for popular modern cards.
The weirdest example of this I can give is that a Moonbreon has roughly the same price as the Neo Discovery Umbreon, with, a moon.. The POP difference is astronomical.
I think, in the end, that at some point WotC will start to be more appreciated again (we are already seeing signs of this, I think) and that the 9´s will start to be picked up as well. Many of these 9´s are still only around POP 1000, which is very rare compared to modern.
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I think this has been said in one form or another in this thread, but its crazy that people are willing to pay 4k for a psa 10 moonbreon (read: theyâve been convinced its worth 4k and that they need one), but then a <100 pop latias ex dragon psa 10 sits between 3-4k. (plenty of examples here of vintage cards that have âsettledâ at 3-4k just one that comes to mind).
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Yes, it does seem off. Like I said, the same goes with many Neo cards of popular PokÊmon. This is where the idea for this thread came from. I´m actually really curious to see if modern is, in the end, in a big bubble, or if the thousands of new fans simply like it so much more that this is what it is. Like others have said, I would diversify, but if I had to pick one over the other, it is vintage. As long as these cards are sub 10K, many of them seem good pick-ups.
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Itâs even rarer to come across someone who has to choose one or the other. Willing to pay that much for a Moonbreon doesnât necessarily mean they were cross shopping for a rarer much older card, or vice versa. It is the end result of people buying what they like the most and paying the premium of not buying earlier.
The question that should be asked of Moonbreon is, why are there are so few PSA 10 listings on ebay when there are 18,823 of them?
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I agree, weâve seen different areas of pokemon go up during different booms. Weâve seen wotc, japanese modern, english modern, ex era, tag team all see big rises in price all at different times over the past 5 years. I still think there are areas that could see growth as they gain more mainstream awareness. There are still many niche cards that would be worth more if they were as known about/popular as modern alt arts.
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The one that always comes to my mind in these discussions is Prerelease Clefable. Itâs an example of a card thatâs low pop, condition scarce, and historically significant, being the first of all English prereleases. Yet it seems like itâs⌠fallen into obscurity? Itâs been flat for years. Only a modest growth in 8 years. The only exception is a recent PSA 9 sale for 15k.
I think itâs a similar story for other vintage niche cards. Maybe some are just too niche, and I wonder how it will ever change when so many new people seem to only go surface level deep into the hobby.
With most of my friends (and a lot of kids going into the pokemon hobby) I find that there is a increasing desire for modern than vintage. Despite what a lot of people say, art does matter, and with all the cool new arts, who wouldnât want to choose modern over vintage?
Iâm pretty confident that in the next 2 years, modern will be the dominant force of the pokemon market, and vintage (wotc) will pretty much become an expensive relic.
I think people here seriously overrate the minuscule and borderline irrelevant differences of WOTC cards as something seriously desirable to the masses. It is almost funny actually.
Why donât they appreciate the 1996/7/8/9 text over Moonbreon when pop is so much lower? Is that really the question?
I never said a card like Prerelease Clefable could, should, or ever would appeal to the masses. It doesnât need to. Thatâs the whole point when youâre dealing with a scarcity/ low pop situation. You donât even need that many people to have the resources, interest, and intent to own a card for it to have value.
Conversely, in the case of massively printed modern the popularity is everything driving the price. Itâs the inverse situation. So equating the two isnât really possible. They operate in very different spheres,
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