What will you buy, when the prices start to correct

So the current market on cards and the crazy run up over the last year has me thinking. Is it sustainable? Likely not. I also think that considering the economic cycles it’s a matter of time before we see the next substantial downturn.

Obviously, it’s hard to predict finances if that happens. But what would you do differently when prices fall? Just in looking at everything, I see a lot of good deals to be had.

I’ll start, psa 8/9 1st editions. As long as I’m not completely impacted. I think there will be deals to be had in those cards and the bounce back would be a matter of time. I also think some of the more current era in psa 10s would be good.

I might be way off base. As someone who trades a little and likes charts and cycles. It’s perplexing.

I think the high end card market will stay relatively the same

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I will continue to watch the market and just adapt to how it plays out.

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Prices will never correct, this is the new normal

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Prices have corrected already. They were surprisingly low for years, so the real deals to be had should have been had prior to 2019.

Even if a correction was due, the financial outlook for the US is an inflationary one, so anything mainly priced in USD will be inflated if not due to demand, due to inflationary pressure from monetary policy.

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I’m talking more along the lines of 2007-2009 and dot com bust. Up until this year we were in the longest bull market. Frankly, the economic market is ridden with toxic debt on the consumer and corporate side. It’s had a bandaid since Covid hit. But the 24month outlook is suspect to me. Sooo when that happens, what do people do? They sell stocks, collectibles, etc to weather it. Or, even if you look at it purely from a buyers standpoint, do you make purchases in what I would consider the mid-market of cards with the uncertainty?

That’s why I think we will see some of it. Debate away though, I like hearing the perspectives.

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You’re right everything is going to shit! Quickly sell me all your rarest cards for good prices. Prepare yourself!

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IF there is any type of substantial retrace, I’m going to grow my sealed product collection as much as possible.

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Lol it’s purely speculative. I really hope this doesn’t happen by the way. We have a small IT recruiting firm, downturns suck.

I’m also still buying at today’s prices. I have a cost average mindset.

Interesting point. While I do agree with this to some degree, I also think that if we continue an inflationary trend, with the global impact this will have. It will have a global impact on other currencies. In other words, I don’t seeing us inflating and now a euro or GBP exchange is vastly different to what it is today. Arguably, a lot of European countries are in worse shape. China is balls deep in US investment.

If prices ever do dip, im buying sealed, sealed and more sealed lol

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Princess Diana signed card. Way overpriced right now. Perhaps a global recession will bring more out of hiding.

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I think people are bored due to covid closures, so more of the supply is getting bought up. Once things open back up fully, I think supply will catch up and cool off this crazy market. Either way, I’ll keep buying what I’ve always been, just gotta look harder for deals now.

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I know people might think that my comments can potentially be geared towards suggesting or challenging certain statements and opinions… buuuuuttt… on this topic I’ll confidently say that the way things are going, have been going, how things are trending, the market as whole, etc. I really do NOT think prices will correct themselves or retrace for specific and sought after graded slabs and a few of the sealed booster boxes…

But, everyone hoarding sealed product, modern and “not so modern”, might be in for some surprises. The market is nowhere near as liquid and many people are beginning to realize this. They are too embarrassed or “scared” to list their “discounted” (I’m saying discounted, because of the price they are personally willing to take, that is still way over what they paid for) sealed boxes, but don’t be fooled, they are ACTIVELY seeking buyers on other platforms and through other means, which suggests that some people might be overleveraged and became a little bit too confident in their buying habits thinking that the few recently sold public listings automatically implied the new market price for the sealed stuff they had. Not to mention, a LOT of TRADE deals have been going down, more than usual. And by trade I mean transactions that include anything but full cash payment.

A lot of the more scarce (what can artificially be seen as scarce possibly) sealed boxes are making their way into other collections by means of trade (mainly for slabs and cash subsidies) and those boxes are usually doubles, triples, part of a case, etc. that the seller has. So I expect this segment of the market to continue to fluctuate 1000%. Collectors/investors who have been focused on slabs, acquiring and grading either raw cards, binders, sets, bulk, etc. tended to stay away from also doubling their collection efforts in the sealed segment (which is normal, not everyone is as rich and wealthy as people may seem to think in the sense it’s not an easy task to both make and be willing to dish out 4, 5 and 6 figures. So they face the “problem” of maybe having many doubles, triples, dozens of them in different grades and are looking to amp up their sealed collecting and the opposite is true for those who have taken the other approach. In other words, many collectors/investors/speculators might be a little bit scared of the current market conditions and are just doing the best and most viable option which is to hedge or protect their assets/collections.

But don’t get it twisted, there is a plethora of NEW money coming in and NEW collectors/investors entering the market who have a lot more money than we think. It’s not just people spending government cheques and a couple grand, there’s big big big big money coming into the market. So don’t expect there to be some type of isolated Pokemon market crash bubble explosion lol… if and when Pokemon “corrects” itself, it’s because everything else around you and us will be correcting itself, it will not be isolated to Pokemon and your buddy who invested just as much in tech stocks will be just as equally hit, and your other friend who left the = amount of cash you spent on Pokemon under his mattress in cash, well his buying power will be much lower as well, it all works together.

I have pretty solid and factual data to be able to confidently come out and say that the buying and selling trends in the Pokemon market as well as the prices increasing and creating new market values, price floors, breaking price ceilings, etc. has NOT slowed down and is NOT showing signs of it either (while other markets and niches/sub niches, which were subject to identical reasonings for increased consumption in the same time frame, have already plateaued and began to decline or declined period. The only things that are “to come” will likely only be positive changes to the hobby, positive new products, new services and all that. So all I can advise anyone is to just make purchasing decisions based on individual goals, be it collecting goals (what you genuinely like and appreciate), investing (what you’re not necessarily in love with or find boring, but that you think holds values to others) or even just flipping and making tiny gains by buying and selling different items to help you reach your other 2 prior goals, it all works :blush:

Is the market manipulated in some way? Sure most likely, but so is 99.999% of the collectibles market and to a much tinier extent, every other market. There’s currently absolutely no reason that your groceries should have gone up by 20-30% in the last few months… it’s ludicrous. Go up by a bit, fine, but not like we’ve been seeing the past few months. But the one thing I can confidently say is the the current demand and interest in the market, the hobby, call it whatever you want is 100% organic.

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I love that response^

Some very good points made. I want to roll back something I said. I didn’t mean the pump in Pokémon specifically over the last year. Collectibles and sports cards have seen a similar price trend.

I’ll be doing the same thing I’ve always done: stay involved in tracking the market price & availability of the cards I want to buy and sell, and trying to make good deals.

I don’t see other economies being relevant to the price of pokemon cards as their value is pegged to their USD prices. (Europe and the UK do not set the price floor for cards, the US does).

We are currently experiencing huge prices and we are in a deflationary cycle, so if the current cycle persists, current prices will persist and stabilize. If on the other hand the bubble bursts, inflation will rise so anything priced in dollars will also increase.

I know it doesn’t seem to make much sense, but personally I do believe this boom is a perfect storm of increased currency supply and organic growth of the hobby. As the currency supply keeps expanding people will keep spending their dollars on whatever they like or think will retain value. If it starts shrinking, the USD as global reserve currency will be under immense inflationary pressure, so even if loads of people sell their cards, the fact that they are priced in dollars, means their dollar price will hold (even though the value of the dollar may not).

Best examples I can give you that are somewhat comparable are gold and bitcoin. Both can go up or down under a stable dollar due to organic demand but both can also go up or down under stable demand due to an increase or decrease in the value of the dollar.

The likelihood of increased demand in the hobby from the ‘heartsquad’ and the likes becoming adults with disposable income denotes an upward trend in organic growth, whereas the lose monetary policy of the fed denotes a likelihood of inflation if the bubble bursts, so personally, I don’t see downward pressure on the hobby anytime soon. Even if it were to happen, it would probably topple modern product, but not so much the established collectibles that could be considered a good deal to be had.

I wouldn’t really do things very differently. I’d be able to afford more of what I like, which would be a huge positive.

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@kaldoverde. I actually misread what you meant, I thought you were saying that the US dollar would be weakened, but with the global demand, it wouldn’t change anything.

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