It was also true for the allmighty Charizard from Base, (arguably) the chase card of the set.
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Iâd be happy to be proven wrong on this, but I still donât see how they can make tera cards look cool. The whole mechanic looks soâŚgoofy.
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For the record, I only cited pop numbers here as an indication that the supply side is abundant. Of course the demand side is astronomical.
However the supply side is more or less fixed but the demand side is flexible. I would expect the same trend here that we saw with shiny Charizord gx
Itâs basically the same story. Hottest card, everyone wanted to pull it. Kids loved it. People were saying itâs the modern equivalent of base set Charizord. It saw a boom. It had a big black label sale everyone talked about. Subsequent black labels sold cheaper and cheaper. PSA pop is close to 10k today. Then eventually people just moved on to the next thing. It rarely is brought up these days. Of course it never crashed to zero but you can see the slow burn of the price coming down/ going sideways
Itâs not that cards will eventually become $20 in PSA 10. Itâs just that the forever growth depends on constant demand growth which is unsustainable. Eventually people move on and the demand flattens out and a more reasonable equilibrium price for the card emerges
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I stay clear of all vmax, its just a gen 8 gimmick and just like you dont see people hunting megas now, you wont see people hunting vmax in 3 years
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The reason why people refer to the pop reports as âgospelâ is because demand changes over time. The number of people who want moonbreon right now is largely irrelevant to the number of people who will want it in 2030.
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Just going to address these points at the same time since they are all related. @thurco @muk @pfm @zorloth
Obviously the fundamentals of an absolute low population is stronger. Thatâs math.
But Iâm not sure if people realize how difficult Moonbreon is to pull or how 10,000 or 20,000 is not a lot because it will be a significant amount of the actual population of the card unlike your promo Charizards etc at 40-70,000 amongst possible millions of copies.
Iâm not arguing that Moobreon will be the most expensive card or will continue to grow exponentially, just explaining why it currently sits at that price and why it may not be at its peak yet. The pull rate of a Moonbreon or any individual rainbow rare in ES is around 1 in 1,750 or 48-49 booster boxes. At $100 a booster box, thatâs $4800 to pull it on average.
Once again, I know that those numbers donât translate into actual singles prices, but comparisons to Base Charmander or Charizard are ridiculous. You probably pull dozens of Charmander in a Base booster box. You most probably get 1 Charizard per booster box. Yeah, they may not be in great condition but Base Charizards are everywhere. You pull 12 holos in that one Base box. You pull 1 rainbow in 3 booster boxes of Evolving Skies. There are 22 of them. They are not the same. Even with the 1 billion print run, there is approximately 58,000 of each rainbow in ES. There are probably more Base Charizards than there are ES rainbows combined.
Yes 58,000 is a huge amount to have of a card in mint condition compared to attrition and previous small print runs etc. but how big is the hobby?
Obviously I donât know the answer to that and the future popularity of the hobby and individual Pokemon/artists etc. but to me, if there are a million people interested in it, thatâs only 5.8%. Obviously not every single one will want to collect it. Maybe that 6% is already too high. It certainly is already way too high for your Copycat and Dracozolt rainbows for them to be under $7 with no future potential. But to me, it doesnât seem so and it explains the price being as high as it is.
Once again, Iâm not saying it will be the most expensive card or itâs better than any other card.
But for the most popular cards or card in the most popular time ever for the TCG, it may just not be enough and if demand does drop off considerably, it wonât be the only card affected and it may not even be the one that drops the most.
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The thing that is flawed in comparing a 1st ed base charizord to Moonbreon that was also flawed in the shiny GX comparison is the 15 year span where 1st ed Charizord sat stagnant.
1st ed Charizord spend most of its life cheaper than either a shiny GX or Moonbreon is today.
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Iâm actually curious how this card reached the prestigious status from the beginning,
It feels like whenever people talk about modern cards, this card has a very high chance on the list.
This is a very interesting card, very liquid card, but at the same time, very volatile price change. I like this card, but only from a data perspective.
Just curios
If someone offered you a PSA 10 moonbreon for 500$ but you HAD to hold it for 4 years before selling would you take the deal?
- yes
- no
0 voters
The pull rate of a Moonbreon or any individual rainbow rare in ES is around 1 in 1,750 or 48-49 booster boxes. At $100 a booster box, thatâs $4800 to pull it on average.
At $30k per Deoxys box, it costs on average $180,000 to pull a GS Rayquaza, but itâs âonlyâ worth ~$8k in PSA 9.
At $50k per Skyridge box, it costs on average $150,000 to pull a crystal Charizard, but itâs âonlyâ worth ~$6k in PSA 9.
At $30k per TRR box, it costs on average $180,000 to pull a GS Torchic, but itâs âonlyâ worth ~$2500 in PSA 9.
Moonbreon is actually incredibly cheap to pull relative to its high PSA 9/10 value.
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I voted no simply because I canât imagine spending $500 on a card I donât really care about or like all that much. Let along the thought of just spending $500 on a single card 
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Perfect example of why i collect 9s.
I think umbreon is similar to past chase cards. The typical modern trend is short term flip, long term dip. Umbreon is still true to that pattern. Prices are cooling as the supply increases. Itâs pretty identical to charizard GX.
With that said if you bought that previous chase card Charizard GX at the bottom, you would be doing well today as it has recovered. But it still hasnât recovered to its initial 10k sale price.
The big risk with this chase game is that a larger portion of the cards price movement is due to speculation rather than organic demand.
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1000% - you only have to look for 2 seconds on Reddit to find the evidence for this 
itâs a great barometer for the flipshipripdipper crowd
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Oh my god, that sub is a cesspool lol. In what world is this is a âcollection?â
Or this:
Like, if you want to âinvestâ in modern sealed, fine. But at least call it what it is lol.
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What a missed opportunity imo
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r/PokeInvesting is what happens when a groupâs primary motivation for engaging in this hobby is money. Itâs filled with endless noise, speculation and vitrol, because everyone there believes they know best.
In reality, itâs just a bunch of modern sealed stonkers that believe theyâre gonna retire off Pokemon in 5-10 years with their closets of Hidden Fates ETBs.
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Lmao! Honestly please donât get me started, I know itâs generally not good juju to spread disdain in what should be a positive hobby environment, but that sub is legit the embodiment of every single blaziken420, flipdip, ETB closet, shining tyranitar meme out there. Anyway, rant over
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