I’m not sure I understand the question, but the price is quite stable over the past year, looks good to me.
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My impression was that they only wanted to move the price up without actually buying any card.
But of course there is no public record of who the sellers and buyers are unlike eBay.
After all, OC cards are still mint/near mint. You can’t get a refund for that.
Are cancelled orders not removed from the sale price history? If I list a copy for $1k and have a friend “buy” it and then I cancel it, I don’t think that would stay in the data. So I don’t think there is a way to manipulate the price without actually buying cards.
I’m not sure. I know that for some reason TCGP doesn’t include quantity sold in the average price.
So if I bought 10 copies at $0.01 from 1 seller and 1 copy at $10,000, the average price is calculated using 2 copies, so it’ll be like $5,000. The easiest possible time to check this of course is only new cards where there is a short price history.
edit: What I intended to illustrate was that if there are gaps like that, there could be other gaps as well depending on when the data is sent to the algorithm or whatever is being used to calculate price.
Don’t forget that some people buy a card without realising there is a copy 10% cheaper if they changed their eBay filters, or went to another website/platform. Some people aren’t price sensitive in that way, they just want to collect the card. Or they are ignorant of other options.
Maybe, I mean, after the PokeRev stream where he failed to pull an Aerodactly alt art, it was bought out on TCGPlayer. Then they bought out Rotom as well because ‘alt art’ is all it takes these days.
Now, although the lowest copy is for $75.00, someone bought one for $97.19.
Of the 11 listings still remaining, there are 7 with 100% feedback and 1 with 99.9% feedback.
Of those 8 all are above 400 sales, with 1 with 25,000+ sales at $80.00.
I may not have proof for the Umbreon, but this is the kind of nonsense I mean that happens on TCGPlayer. Why would you pay that amount (highest of the listed cards) when there are those options?
This one will probably fail because Rotom is not very popular nor is the art like Aerodactyl or Giratina, but the fact is it can definitely be manipulated when there seemingly aren’t any checks. And as I said, given the fact that multiple copies are ignored when calculating market price is such a massive oversight, that it doesn’t seem unlikely there are other gaps in code.
And maybe, maybe there are very irrational or ignorant folk, but that seems more farfetched to me, if we’re discussing the reason what possible reasons such sales occur.
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How do you know the $75 copy didn’t come onto the market after the $97.19 sale? Just because there are currently lower options listed, doesn’t mean they were on the market and available when these higher sales occurred
Where did you get this dataset from? Is the data just old, or is this not eBay?
The prices on eBay there tell a bit of a different story.
If you go through the history, it took around 2 weeks to spike from an Average of 650
to an average of 800-900+
oh now I understand your question, the price data from thee website only goes to Aug 31st.(Around $650)
Here is the link for my picture: TCG Fish
Edit: for best experience, use this link on PC, mobile doesn’t work.
It seems like the price has been moving up up up in Sept.
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Thank you for the link.
I think with your data as reference it is even more evident that this is an extremely unusual behavior for this card. It never showed such a rapid spike.
Does this happen to other cards as well or is this something like the prerelease clefable that just randomly jumped in price?
Are other cards showing a similar pattern?
Sudden price movements are very common. Usually it’s a reaction to the price itself or a record sale. All the people on the fence about buying are motivated to suddenly buy before “the price gets too high”.
Especially for this card, a lot of people are really focused on the price and what direction it will go. When the wind starts blowing north, people start locking in a price and the temporarily reduced supply creates a feedback loop. FOMO is a dangerous drug
Of course, anything could be “market manipulation”. I don’t usually buy into that narrative though without very strong evidence since an entirely organic explanation exists and it’s not suprising to me to see the moonbreon hitting these prices
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I mean, it’s called “moonbreon” for a reason
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Not a great looking card
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The $300+ price tag raw and the $800 EUR PSA 10 would say otherwise.
To add, I can see this being a $1000 CAD card in a 10. This price jump doesn’t seem abnormal
Umbreon premium doesn’t care how nice it looks, just that it says umbreon on it
I agree, the art is ok but far from being the best for umbreon.
Still i can understand why the card is fetching a high number but $600 for a year old set seems too extreme.
Any takers on if the raw card price of Umbreon will hit $100 or $1,000 first? Or neither for the next 10 years?
A lot of ‘investors’ are speculating & sitting on a lot of ES boxes it seems, which further puts a strain on available supply of both boxes to open and potential Umbreon pulls. It is the most shilled/promoted booster box along with Brilliant Stars. I think this is a lot of what has made the Umbreon supply an on-going issue and has kept the prices elevated, along with the high/organic demand it has over any other SWSH card.
My guess is, unless the supply dynamics vastly change or people begin to open a lot of ES packs that the card price could stay somewhere in the upper range for a while. In the longer term, I could see it somewhere in the middle unless a ton of them start hitting the market at some point and interest in the hobby fades a bit, or people become burned out.
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Can I take $1000 first but then dropping back down? Don’t see this card going for less than $100 even if modern takes a catastrophic hit.
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It all comes down to how many collectors vs demand. I suppose that’s the whole market and society etc.
But if you assume a print run of 1b cards per set, then even a normal V card “only” has a population of 695,000. PokeRev has like 2x the number as subscribers. How many buyers are out there?
Yet those cards are worth $1 and in some sense are unsellable.
Of course the price of the card excludes many who would want it, but it seems impossible for it to hit $100 unless there is something else going on in society - like the end of it lol.