Booster boxes do have a “guaranteed” range of pull rate though. You most likely will get 1 SAR (or whatever they’re called), but there’s a chance you will get 0 or more than 1. But in general it’s a safe bet to say you will get 1 per box. A random assortment of 36 packs might get you 3 SARs, but it’s an extra risk—especially as modern boxes creep up in price. BB is the safer play, so it has a premium.
You’re also discounting the power of weighing packs. I’m not sure if SV can be weighed, but I’m pretty sure SwSh can. Boxes are immune to this variable. Lower amount of variables = safer purchase = consumer standard = higher price than riskier alternative.
By loose packs I did mean sleeved loose packs or just packs that came from any random product (not weighed). Swsh can be “weighed” but it’s not widespread and it’s not nearly as helpful as vintage weighing. Mostly it can give you a rough idea of if the pack has a non Holo or a Holo. But even if you get a full art on modern packs it’s usually a loss and a Holo Rare is bulk. I hear people claim they worry about modern pack weighing but those people have never been able to explain or demonstrate it effectively for me to put it as a major factor. I only state that it is a fact because I know of at least one confirmed way that I “discovered” myself (but like I said it’s still pretty worthless so I can’t imagine anyone caring much)
Generally though I don’t really hear anyone who invests in modern boxes specifically saying they do so because they think it’s a better pull rate. It’s just a factor that I thought may be in their mind along with other factors. I’m sure the box staple idea comes from several sources and it’s not just pull rates or history or scarcity. I just personally feel like all of those reasons are becoming more and more irrelevant
You have to think of it not as someone investing in the boxes, but as a consumer looking to buy them. It’s pretty common knowledge the booster boxes have a fixed range of pulls. Look at any mass opening and it will average out to a specific rate. This rate may vary from set to set (for example I think Obsidian flames was 1 SAR for each 2 boxes because it only had 3 SARs or something) but it’s still a determined rate. Loose packs will always be a gamble compared to BB. You might get more, but you also might burn hard. That risk isn’t present with a BB.
As far as weighing, you can still weigh the sleeved boosters. While you might not be able to determine which packs have a regular holo vs a FA or a FA vs an alt etc etc, you can still filter out the ones that likely don’t have anything. Again, why would I as the buyer take that risk? I think the people breaking down boxes and hoarding individual packs are foolish. They are removing the one guarantee that the packs are truly unweighed or searched (the larger box packaging) which in turn will put off consumers down the line as the sets get more expensive. If you could buy 36 individual packs for the same price as a booster box, most people would choose the BB because it simply has less variables and therefore less risk.
In fact, I’d argue the only reason these modern investors are hoarding so many individual packs over BBs is because they are obtaining them at a price per pack that is lower than the BB price per pack. If both were equal, they’d just buy the BBs instead.
Have you ever weighed sleeved blisters successfully? I’ve never seen it work
I should note the only methods that I know confirmed do work with any repeatability for modern are simply called “weighing” but the actual weight is not a factor
Yes, back in the day with XY both before and after the code card change to counteract weighing. Pretty sure it’s possible for SM and at least some of SwSh, don’t know if it’s possible for anything after the SwSh code card change-so therefore I don’t know if it’s possible for SV. Have you tried or seen packs weighed on a large scale? If they’re able to determine even the smallest range of packs as “likely duds” or “likely hits,” then the integrity of buying sleeved boosters is compromised.
@enigma Beat me to it! The pull rates definitely add value to a booster box. Even if current modern sets aren’t as guaranteed as prior generations, its still more than a lot of 36 random packs.
Oh yeah it was easy in xy and bw and such. I’ve not been able to get anything repeatable from simply putting a sleeved pack on a scale for sm or swsh.
I’d still be surprised if people were buying boxes because they’re afraid of pack weighing. Given how hard it is and how useless even the best results are
XY Breakpoint was the first set with the new code cards, and it was still weighable. IIRC the code cards changed again in Fusion Strike, so anything in between should also be weighable. I can’t make any claims about Fusion Strike-onwards.
Even disregarding weighing, BBs’ stable pull rates alone will be enough to keep single packs below the BB price.
Yeah they changed code cards a few times. And late reprints in swsh also used different code cards for older sets (don’t get me started on print run #1 evolving skies premiums lol) so weighing is far less of a concern than it may be made out to be by us here.
Also I refreshed myself on the prices of sleeved packs and boxes for some sets and they’re closer than I remembered so I guess the market doesn’t care as much as I thought they did. The market does overwhelmingly value loose non sleeved non blister packs lower. Whether that be from weighing or not is unclear
the sealed box is the “collectible” in this case not the contents inside. kinda like how a sealed video game would generate multiples of premium (depending on the game) over if you just pulled off the shrinkwrap when they are basically the same thing
i dont necessarily agree with this but that is just how it is
As others have already said, it’s well known that booster boxes contain rough but predictable odds of specific rarity hits, which does not exist to the same extent in loose or sleeved packs. This is why booster boxes are more valuable than loose or sleeved packs.
This is done so that the average consumer can have an expected minimal experience. If track printing did not occur and true randomization was used, there would be booster boxes with no hits at all and some with 36 hits, but this does not happen because these standards exist. Of course, some level of randomness is introduced to this process, which allows for “better” and “worse” booster box experiences on any given opening.
Also, this randomization quality control is done across every TCG, not just Pokemon. WoTC was one of the first companies to ensure this type of randomization when foils were introduced in MTG (e.g., for silver age sets: 1 foil rare per box on average, 1-3 uncommons, 5-7 commons with a few being lands).
I don’t think people shop rationally in collectible hobbies. There is a lot of irrational fear around pack weighing, pack scanning, pack resealing, fake slabs, cert correlations with quality, etc. The biggest boogyman in modern Pokemon will always be the paranoid rumor mill.
Since there has to be a method of determination of what goes into each box, for example something like:
Printing and classifying card sheets according to rarity
Attributing cards from each rarity class (e.g. illus. rare, special illus. rare, secret rare) to each ‘block’ of 36 packs on the production line, according to a programmed range, e.g. 0-1 Secret, 0-3 Special Illus, 1-5 illus etc.
Carrying out a (random?) selection process from each of these sheets to meet these range criteria and seeding the packs in each ‘block’ of 36 packs.
The thing I then wonder is, is the seeding of “loose” packs treated differently? (by “loose” packs I’d include non-BB packs, including those that go into ETBs and other collection boxes). Are these packs simply taken off the same production line as those going into BBs, or is there a separate production method for all non-BB packs utilizing a more basic seeding pattern according to the odds of pulling each rarity type? (i.e. 1 in 5, 1 in 100 etc).
ETBs follow a similar pattern to booster boxes, with somewhat predictable rates.
As for truly loose packs, like those that you find in random sealed product or sleeved booster packs, I would assume that they are printed with typical set odds. However, the distribution of these packs is not manipulated like it would be in booster boxes or ETBs.
In other words, greater randomness may occur with loose or sleeved booster packs as the randomization quality standards are non-existent. But if you were to open a large number of them (e.g., hundreds or thousands), the hit odds should even out to what you might expect from the set.
ETB’s are kind of wasteful. There are lots of useful things in ETBs for those that actually play the card game, but for the majority of buyers who simply want to collect, how many of those sleeves and die and other game elements included in the box just get tossed out?
I know you elaborated, but as a general tool gates, walls, fences, etc. are not bad things. They protect. There are bad faith actors that want to get involved in things to take advantage of other people and contribute nothing. There is nothing wrong with trying to keep that sort of person away from your hobby.
The NFT-ization of the hobby is inevitable. You will buy your cards from breakers on live streams, have them shipped directly to PSA, then list them on eBay without ever touching the physical card. You will just be managing database records represented by images to get liquidity and you’ll be happy.
This is basically just a couple extra steps from what we already have. Buying online, having the card shipped to a vault, then selling from that vault is a service many already make use of, as I’m sure you’re aware.
It’s already here and many people are fine with it.
