I’m positive that I’m going to piss off some people with this opinion, but I guess that means that it’s well suited for this thread? lol
But I think that the modern-era of Pokemon cards is going to turn out like the ‘junk wax’ era in sports cards. The circumstances are astonishingly similar:
- The ‘junk wax’ era dawned when people began to invest in modern sports cards. People began to invest in modern sports cards once the older sports cards started to become valuable. People expected the modern cards to follow suit.
- This newfound demand from investors drove card production up significantly. Not only this, but investors were adults who hoarded lots of sealed product and carefully preserved the cards they opened.
- This lead to market saturation that still persists to this day. The cards from the late 80s/early 90s are still basically worthless. There’s a good amount of genuine demand for them – they’re nostalgic for many people. But because investor demand drove the print runs up and because adults kept lots of product sealed, the market has experienced long-term saturation.
I don’t think I need to highlight the similarities with modern Pokemon product. It’s pretty obvious. Will modern Pokemon become akin to the junk wax era? Only time will tell. But what is clear is that the reason why WotC/EX Series is expensive is precisely the reason why modern product won’t be:
- People didn’t hoard, for instance, sealed Skyridge or EX Deoxys boxes. So the supply of sealed product is tiny relative to the amount printed.
- These were mass-produced sets, but the people collecting these cards were almost exclusively kids. And kids don’t treat cards like adults do. And even then, kids in 2003 didn’t have the same interest in preserving cards as kids do now. I had no clue or interest in what my cards were worth. And I made zero effort to preserve them. I carried my favorite card (Dragonite ex from EX Dragon) in my pocket to school everyday. Needless to say: the supply of mint raw cards from vintage sets is super low relative to the amount of these cards printed.
- Low supply of mint raw cards + low supply of sealed product = WotC/EX Series are organically collectible
Anyway, I’m sure I’ll piss off many people here who have money invested in modern cards. But this is just my honest view of things. If you’re going to flame me for ‘hating on Modern’ and lob ad hominens at me, then don’t bother. I’ve heard it all before. But if you want to have a reasoned, civil discussion, though, then I’m fine with that.