People generally advise vintage set collectors to go for the “chase” cards first, ‘cause they’re the most susceptible to price increases (and their value also seems to increase faster than the “non-chase” cards). However, as you all know we’re on a very hot market/bubble right now and many cards have been hitting their all-time highest values.
Since a lot of people here agree that we’re going to eventually see a correction and most cards will retrace in value, I was wondering if I should wait before getting the “chase” cards for the vintage sets I’m collecting. I realize that the current market trends are more related to modern than vintage, but vintage has also seen significant price increases this year. What do you guys think? Do you think vintage will be impacted just as much as modern when things start to cool down?
At the very least you should be putting money aside and accumulating it for the most expensive cards if you’re not comfortable straight-up buying them today
i actually do not see a retrace/correction in vintage or at least not as strong as a modern retrace. whether you want to wait or not is up to you.
The question you need to ask yourself is: Will i be priced out and never be able to get this card again if prices don’t drop and will you be okay if a card you want in your collection is lower than what you paid for it?
I’ve also faced the same question. My long term goal is all WOTC holos in PSA 9, first edition for the sets that have them.
Going for the most expensive / popular ones first makes sense if you’re worried about them getting completely out of reach. Yet those are the same cards that have already doubled (or more) in price. There are plenty of other vintage cards that still haven’t increased much this year. If you want them eventually anyway, those may be safer from a correction.
I ended up doing a mixture of both. I got a few of the biggest cards this year, but I also picked up a lot of the unpopular cards that have barely moved.
That seems like a good strategy. I’ve bought some of the holos I need, but I’ve been avoiding the most expensive ones for this very reason.
Yeah, that’s a good point. In general, I don’t really care about the value of my collection, but in this case I’m just trying to avoid that feeling when you buy something expensive and next week you see the same thing on sale for 50% off, you know?
What do you think caused the recent price surge in Vintage Pokémon from Jan 2025, and especially the sharp increase from October onward?
We all know the 2020–2021 spike was driven by Logan Paul’s Base Set openings on YouTube plus the COVID boom — but what’s behind this new rise in early 2025?
Has something specific happened in the market, or is this just general collector interest increasing again?
And do you think prices might return to 2024 levels, or is this the new baseline?
I see. I was planning to collect one set at a time, but maybe it would be smarter to think of the sets I would like to complete and then prioritize getting the chase cards first.
Is the opportunity to complete the set earlier (or possibly at all given your specific financial status) worth the greater cost to you today? This is all very subjective, as your budget and preferences will be different from mine and everyone else.
Within this framework, it’s important to ask yourself:
→ Will this card be readily available in the future? If so, waiting only impacts the price that you will pay.
→ Will this card be difficult to find in the future? If so, waiting will impact the price that you will pay and the amount of time it will cost you to complete the set.
pfm’s answer is best. if you don’t buy now you should adjust with the assumption you’ll be paying more in the future, even if you don’t end up paying more. you can buy other cards, but ensure you’re leaving some budget to put towards that chase. if you can’t do that, i’d err on buying now or completely saving
From my point of view idk man this market will correct probably as some time but when who really knows what that looks like
I will also say this the 2020 covid Logan Paul boom had some of my vintage slabs going for crazy amounts… after that crash a lot of them have still not recovered to those prices… so idk does that make it a deal compared to that? Or is vintage still high and going to correlate with a correction (probably) or has vintage not had its full run yet in this market (idk ask the experts)
There were people who believed vintage had peaked in 2016. There are people who believe vintage is peaking now. There are people who will believe vintage is peaking in 10 more years. Nothing will climb forever, but nothing will fall forever
didn’t 2015 time people also said that people would stop playing physical card games and convert to online? I personally believe pokemon will stand the test of time or at least my lifetime.
Yeah, I’ve been putting some money aside already for the more expensive cards. My question had more to do with the best time to pull the trigger on these cards. But yeah, it would be certainly better to buy now and pay more than being priced out in future.
This is always a tough one at times, but so far it’s almost always paid off most of the time to buy the most expensive or in demand cards sooner than later. It’s just a matter of supply & demand. Of course there are scenarios like Covid pricing with vintage specifically where it likely wouldn’t have paid off in the shorter term to buy into that type of hype, but one has to be able to separate the noise from the fundamentals in those situations and be more patient if possible.
I bought my 1st Ed Base Charizard in early 2023, which seemed to be near a ‘bottom’ in the demand and pricing at the time compared to 2020/2021 pricing. It would cost me nearly 3-4x more to buy the same copy today, just ~2 years later in this 2025 market.
At the same time, there’s lot of cards in this same set which have only seen little to modest price increases since then in comparison. It’s still much easier to accumulate the lesser demand/popular cards overall at almost any given time.
So you just have to spend time with the market and learning the cards and trends. It’s still possible to score deals if you’re patient, but at the same time it can pay off in the long term to take action as long as it fits your financial situation properly and overall collecting goals.
I’d suggest wait. If you are in the UK I expect a lot to be listed in the new year when the eBay £1700 personal sales cap resets. That’s what’s stopping me listing a few cards. So I think the ones currently listed are listed high as no one can undercut each other yet.
idk probably but given I was playing hearthstone at the time and followed that scene I knew that would never stick
I think pokemon is too much of a behemoth to fail in the court of public opinion during our lifetime. It’s bigger than star wars now, and that’s stood for decades despite public opinion being the IP’s been dragged through the mud
They won’t stop printing cards unless governments force some kind of mandate around gambling laws, it’s an infinite money printing machine. Even if laws are erected, I’m sure they’ll find a way to circumvent them and print more
I used to find auctions around Christmas/Holidays sometimes go for a little lower than other periods in the year. It’s not universally the case, but as people tend to be busier auctions can sometimes go unnoticed and you can get some good prices on things. If you’re sensitive about what you pay I’d recommend waiting until then, and if you can’t find anything for a “good” price around then to just by as you can in the new year. Most set cards, even if they’re the chase, will be available again down the line. I think that should alleviate some stress over it. It’s more stressful dealing with promos/trophies where there’s a bit more uncertainty