Tracking 1999 Pokemon PSA 10 Base Set 1st Edition

[jacobm9]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@jeremypadawer ,

First of all Jeremy, great data! I keep track of this stuff closely as well. Let me add a few things here:

1 - Respectfully, I very much disagree with including the Unlimited version of the “1st edition” Machamp as part of the complete 1st edition Base Set. I know the set you purchased said it was a “104/102” and was counting both Machamps but I rolled my eyes at that, it was just a way to fluff up the number even more. The Machamp in question was not part of the first print run. It is an Unlimited card in every way - colors, the bold HP, the shadow, the copyright data. It’s just not part of the true 1st edition set. The only true “1st edition” Machamp is the Shadowless version - the Unlimited version is not *actually* 1st edition, it just has a stamp. The only true “extra” (non-error) card that should be considered a true part of 1st ed Base is the Red Cheeks Pikachu, making the set 103 cards.

2 - The Wartortle that you have listed at $2,300 actually sold for $1,500 according to someone on our forum. Sold listings through sites like flippertools.com are not accurate in some cases (keep an eye out for when an item has a “best offer” option but flippertools shows that the card sold for the buy it now price)

3 - Your Nidoking estimate is too high. This is another case in which the item was listed for $7,000 with a best offer option but flippertools shows a $7,000 sales price. It is very likely inaccurate. I would say a better estimate for this card is $4k (what the card sold for on a PWCC auction at the end of June).

4 - I think the Hitmonchan was too much of a bargain, the seller hadn’t quite adjusted to price increases and sold off the card too quickly. After that he learned his lesson and raised prices. Given the population of the Hitmonchan, I would estimate it would sell for at least $8k or so without much trouble. But this is simply an estimate on my part rather than official data.

5 - Your Computer Search $1,300 price is too high. You can get it on eBay Buy It Now right now for $800. Given the population of the card relative to other trainer cards with a similar population, the $1,300 price point does not make sense. Although I will say that I know someone ( @tobiasfrida ) paid over $900 for one in an auction that ended a couple of months ago and I believe Gary also recently sold a couple in the $700 range.

6 - I don’t really know what’s going on with the Charmander, there are a couple of recent auctions that ended around the $1,500 mark but this seems fishy to me, given that the card was consistently selling for $500-600 right before these auctions. I would wait for more data but at the moment I would not place an estimate of more than $600 for this card.

Your other data points look pretty good to me.

I covered the charmander on my channel. It appears there was a buy out last week at around 600 dollars each then a couple shill bids at 1600 each. I heard one private sale at 1.2k and now there is a current auction over 1k that looks legit. People are asking for like 2500 for it now on ebay. I definitely would be careful with that charmander right now. Although a lot of buyouts appear to be happening on 1st edition base set atm. So hard to know anything for sure though. All of this is educated guesses!

[gomar]

I wouldnt be surprised if 1st edition base set is playing a bit of catchup. Especially the lower tier stuff. It’s getting a bit scarce the number of decent PSA stuff that you can pick up for less than 150.

Despite just being commons. Anything shadowless has a lot of nostalgia because so many of us seen them as kids.

[crow]

I think 1st edition base non-holos are still very undervalued and are delayed with respect to increases to reflect the increases in holo prices.

A couple of minor comments for the OP—Gyarados and Ninetales are misspelled.

[jeremypadawer]

@crow

I think 1st edition base non-holos are still very undervalued and are delayed with respect to increases to reflect the increases in holo prices.

A couple of minor comments for the OP—Gyarados and Ninetales are misspelled.

Spelling updated. Thank you.

[jeremypadawer]

A few big meaningful recent sales around or above $1k:

Yellow Cheeks Pikachu $1,360 (7/31)
Charmander $995 (7/31)

[tobiasfrida]

@jeremypadawer

A few big meaningful recent sales around or above $1k:

Yellow Cheeks Pikachu $1,360 (7/31)
Charmander $995 (7/31)

Damn that is some crazy prices. Amazing.

[jeremypadawer]

Updated - Pidgeotto ($650), Charmander ($1400), Squirtle ($1350) as significant winning bids this last week.

[pichufan]

@jeremypadawer

Charmander $995 (7/31)

Wow that’s gone up! My fiancée collects Charmander cards and I picked up a 1st Edition PSA 10 copy for her at the end of last year for £85 (~$112 or so). Being a common card if we use @hyruleguardian 's figures here and assume that for every Charizard there are 76 or more Charmander cards, it could be said that Charmander has a larger slice of the market than Charizard.

Edit: And I hadn’t even seen your post above mine until now! $1400 for a Charmander is crazy.

[pierce]

Charmanders market cap is bigger than a lot of the holos, some of these prices are off as they come from PSA (will fix this when I have time, #dadlife) but the majority are accurate and it’s interesting to see the caps. The cap number goes off the last sale price, but the 60 day median is there as a reference in case the last sale is an outlier. A lot of the holos don’t sell regularly enough to have a 60 day average though.

www.pokemonprice.com/MarketCap

Edit: Disclaimer: As I usually mention, all prices are just a guide, the information is collated to help people form opinions and see sales over time, sales should be looked into for confirmation not accepted at face value.

[xjh7]

My yellow and red cheeks sold for 4900AU (3500US) if that helps

[EnlightenedBulbasaur]

@xjh7

My yellow and red cheeks sold for 4900AU (3500US) if that helps

I’d say that’s right in line with other recent sales for those 2 cards.

[matthewevan]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@xjh7

My yellow and red cheeks sold for 4900AU (3500US) if that helps

I’d say that’s right in line with other recent sales for those 2 cards.

And I can confirm that the buyer paid for that Pikachu pair and he is looking forward to buying more from that seller!

[xjh7]

@matthewevan

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

I’d say that’s right in line with other recent sales for those 2 cards.

And I can confirm that the buyer paid for that Pikachu pair and he is looking forward to buying more from that seller!

A man of your words haha

[jeremypadawer]

A couple PSA 9 Red Cheeks 1st edition Pikachu’s sold for $1,150 and $1,200 this weekend. PSA 10 is listed on eBay at $2,750.

Interestingly, 2.5X multiple 9 to 10 is historically quite low.

UPDATE:

1. NEVERMIND. The PSA 10 red cheeks says “out of stock.” There is nothing even close to $2,750 on PSA 10 Red Cheeks Pikachu. So, maybe the 3-4X multiplier stays true. $4-5k for red cheeks? More?

2. Last night $1,300 for PSA 9 Red Cheeks Pikachu. Sold.

[jeremypadawer]

3 ebay sales above $2k on non-holos.
Squirtle $2,000
Charmander $2,500
Bulbasaur $2,472

[jcincy101]

@jeremypadawer

3 ebay sales above $2k on non-holos.
Squirtle $2,000
Charmander $2,500
Bulbasaur $2,472

Strange you can buy charmander and squirtle right now for $1,795 (or best offer)

[Pbali]

@jcincy101

@jeremypadawer

3 ebay sales above $2k on non-holos.
Squirtle $2,000
Charmander $2,500
Bulbasaur $2,472

Strange you can buy charmander and squirtle right now for $1,795 (or best offer)

Charmander got relisted and the squirtle was most likely an offer sent to buyer

[somepokemonguy]

Yeah, I think the squirtle is in the $1.2-1.3k range on average and charmander is slightly more valuable but the prices are very fluid. There are two auctions up for charmander, one at $1.3k and one at $1k. The bulbasaur sale is legit though as the seller posted it on Instagram. Bulbasaur has usually been about twice as much as the other two starters IIRC due to the lower pop. Pikachu is absolutely skyrocketing as well.

I think it’s only a matter of time before the other non holos pop up a little bit higher in price. They’ve lagged a little bit compared to the holos which is understandable since they’re a lot easier to find and higher pop but once supply dries up that could definitely change things.
EDIT: Just my opinion of course, not trying to price hype lol.

[gengarguy]

@jeremypadawer

A couple PSA 9 Red Cheeks 1st edition Pikachu’s sold for $1,150 and $1,200 this weekend. PSA 10 is listed on eBay at $2,750.

Interestingly, 2.5X multiple 9 to 10 is historically quite low.

UPDATE:

1. NEVERMIND. The PSA 10 red cheeks says “out of stock.” There is nothing even close to $2,750 on PSA 10 Red Cheeks Pikachu. So, maybe the 3-4X multiplier stays true. $4-5k for red cheeks? More?

2. Last night $1,300 for PSA 9 Red Cheeks Pikachu. Sold.

That’s crazy. Just a few months ago I bought one of these for sub $200.

[jacobm9]

Yes these are being pushed right now on tea with Garyvee and other places, plus they have been some of the slowest movers over the past 4 years. Some of this is definitely a correction to the rest of the market but there is also some strange activity on a couple of these cards atm. IE increased shill bidding, buyouts and garyvee showing them off.