巨大的中国市场线索 The Giant Chinese Market Thread

[emolga_pachirisu]

my reasonning is like this

• China market has untapped potential and is only at the beginning of its growth
• for the first time, there will be another player/country/language entering and capable of competing with japan and usa, even maybe outpacing them
• i live in france and the situation here is that french cards have their own dynamics and will often go for more than their english counterparts
• chinese people started initially to value more japanese cards compared to simplified chinese cards
• i sense this dynamic might be changing and mainland starting to appreciate their own cards more, the market size is there for it to be its own thing, and like in France they might actually start to value the simplified chinese more than japanese (when their is the equivalent counterpart).
• Similarly, i expect them to value more and more CCIC instead if PSA. It’s a big hassle to get cards in and out of China, and the ccic quality standards and slabs are better, and it’s cheaper. Really there is little reason to go for PSA if the chinese market grows to be the volume of US/japan. It becomes its own thing with no incentive to trade internationnally. And the ccic10gold, from what i’ve bought until now, are more expensive (around 20% on average) than a PSA10. I expect this differential to increase.
• therefore, although i still collect my main library of slabs in psa10 because i started with japanese cards, for the CS ones i decided for CCIC after trying to crack one for crossgrading and realizing the CCIC one is actually superior to PSA (except international value like you said)

[bk2021]

I’m surprised the Chinese government is so lenient on what amounts to gambling lol and technically false advertising since there are actually different pull rates of the same supposed rarity.

But IDK, maybe the TCG isn’t targeted at kids in China so it gets away with it?

I would’ve thought it would be one of the behaviours that would be clamped down upon.

[yamahap45]

The speculative element of collecting which can resemble gambling is primarily driven by collectors, investors, speculators, and flippers.

There are countless TCG in China. You may have heard of Kayou, which is a major player. Their cards and packs are very cheap, and they produce cards for nearly every franchise, similar to Weiss Schwarz. Because the price point is so low and the focus is on collecting, I believe most people do not consider it to be gambling.

I checked the Oxford Dictionary’s definition of gambling:
The activity of playing games of chance for money, or of betting on the outcome of future events such as the results of races or games.

The companies that produce TCGs claim, ‘We do this for kids.’ It is adults who attach different meanings to the product and create the secondary market. While the collectible world is certainly driven by a secondary market that influences demand, these companies publicly maintain that they do not care about it.

Just my opinion, and yes, gambling is forbidden in China.

[yamahap45]

Your reasoning about the Chinese market’s untapped potential and its capacity to compete with the US and Japan is compelling. However, I have a few counterpoints regarding the current market dynamics for Simplified Chinese (CS) cards and the role of domestic grading.

Simplified Chinese cards had a very weird moment. Initially, there was little interest, but during the waifu boom especially with the Chinese Tag Team alternate arts prices peaked. For a brief time, some CS cards equaled or even surpassed their Japanese counterparts. People genuinely seemed to be collecting or investing in the cards themselves, not for overseas resale, as the price didn’t make sense. At that time, there were no CS exclusives, and many international collectors didn’t even know Simplified Chinese cards existed, leading to fears of fakes. The market was almost entirely domestic.

Following that boom, there was a major correction (a crush), and card values plummeted. Fortunately, thanks to new releases like the Gem Pack and 151 , along with some exclusive artwork, interest is starting to return.

Regarding pricing, the same cards available in Japanese or English are still significantly cheaper in Simplified Chinese. I’d argue that 99% of non-Chinese people who choose to collect Simplified Chinese do so for financial reasons specifically, to collect the artwork at a lower cost.

• Example (Raw NM): A Rayquaza V Alternate Art card is approximately $255 in English, $200 in Japanese, and $55 in Simplified Chinese.

If your goal is to simply own the artwork without speculation, CS is the best, most affordable option, as you receive an official Pokémon card. However, for a true investment perspective, I would still suggest English or Japanese. The potential for those cards to double, triple, or achieve a 5x or 10x return is far more established and compelling.

I strongly disagree with collecting CCIC as a strategy for maintaining or maximizing financial value. If you simply prefer the slabs, that’s fine. But from a liquidation and investment perspective, it’s currently a poor choice.

CCIC is new, and its long-term stability is uncertain. No one knows if a newer Chinese grading company will emerge in the next two years, or if international giants like PSA or CGC will significantly expand their market share there.

Cost and Quality Perception: CCIC has a very quick turnaround time (usually less than 15 days), and their price (around 75 RMB, or $10 US), is more expensive than other local services like CCG (which are 20−30 RMB or <$5 US).

Crucially, sellers of CCIC cards often include descriptions like ‘very likely PSA 10 quality.’ This indicates that collectors view the CCIC grade not as an end-value itself, but as a pre-screen for cross-grading to PSA or BGS.

Liquidity Risk: One day, you might need to quit the hobby or sell part of your collection for a larger purchase. With CCIC, you will struggle significantly to liquidate quickly at a desirable price, especially outside of the Chinese mainland.

I agree that the CCIC slabs are clean and simple. You are also correct that their standards are demonstrably stricter based on current data. However, whether stricter standards make them a ‘better’ grading company is subjective. By that logic, BGS would be the definitive best.

In my opinion, the ‘best grading company’ is a mix of factors: grading scale, brand desirability, market ubiquity, and ease of liquidation. CCIC excels in one (strict standards) but currently falters in the others, making them a financially risky choice right now."

[thsigma]

exclusives be carrying HARD

[Vertemes]

My original statment’s intention: “The investing plan is so elaborate that you should be doing the stock market” (Past results are never a garauntee of future outcomes)

How it came out: Why are you buying pokemon cards when you could be in the stock market?

[Vertemes]

Also question for @yamahap45:

At what rate are they distributing these new sets and is the issue of demand less prevalent there? What are the main superstores that distribute these cards and how do they reach the 2ndhand market quickly.

Also 2nd question: Is the impact of tariffs part of the reason for a jump in price? I understand it may be for the buyers side but what about in a case where the seller is taking the brunt of the tariffs.

[yamahap45]

CS usually see a new main set every two months or so. That schedule doesn’t count those special, sets like the 151, Gem Pack .

The cards are printed over in Japan, and then The Pokémon Company Shanghai distribute them out to the Chinese market. How they actually move all those cards around and to different distributors? That part I don’t know.

Getting to the secondary market is always the same deal. The second the official release date hits, people start ripping packs and spamming listings across all the online groups and marketplaces.

The big jump in card prices is absolutely not about tariffs. Prices have gone crazy high for Pokémon cards in every language and market worldwide. It’s a general hype and collector boom.

[fresco]

Great answer, thanks!

So it’s real scarcity and outstanding demand.

I do love this art but paying $1500 for a card that released a couple of months ago seems like a no-no but given the circumstances, it might never dip too much from these prices.

[mrbubbles]

I really appreciate you knowledge on this topic. Thanks for sharing your insights on the market and also the grading structure. I am sure it will be useful to many would like to understand the nuances.

Cheers!

[yamahap45]

75% gem rate!

I’m not the one trying to hype Chinese cards; that’s PSA! Haha. I paid less than $4 each , and they are still plentifully available on the market. And yes, I accepted the PSA offer.
I blurred the price to avoid controversy, so please click it if you genuinely want to know. This post is not for flexing or whatever; I’m just amazed by the offer and want to show it. I could stay silent and replicate this x9999 instead of sharing. So, please don’t hate me.

[Dyl]

If you were to scale this Chinese Pokemon card grading operation up, how much do you think you could net per year if prices didn’t change aggressively?

Do you think others are doing this full time?

[yamahap45]

To be honest, I don’t know the exact figure. However, some facts are clear: the average income in China is still very low compared to Western countries. I would guess the graders get paid anywhere from 15 to 30 RMB per hour. Considering that $1 USD equals about 7.13 RMB, this is a major operational advantage. Furthermore, logistics are incredibly cheap and fast in China. Submitting a batch of around 50 cards might only cost between 8 and 18 RMB, depending on the courier service used, and shipping typically takes just one to three days.

This efficiency is crucial to the local market. While CCG was previously the dominant player, CCIC has now taken over the market even though its grading fee is reportedly triple that of CCG. This shift is likely due to the superior quality of the slabs and the fact that CCIC is a state-owned enterprise, which provides an enormous level of confidence and perceived stability. Given their massive volume and operational cost advantage, CCIC is probably grading at least 1,000 cards per day minimum, indicating a huge scaling potential.

This entire ecosystem creates a significant challenge for Western BGS 10 or PSA 10 collectors hunting for Chinese cards. Since local grading is so cheap and easy, virtually no one would sell a clean, pristine card as raw on a platform like eBay. There are now two major filters: first, the casual seller who is looking for quick money and bypasses grading; and second, the eBay seller who would have had to purchase from those casual sellers. Finding raw, mint cards for submission is now virtually 99% impossible, as the cards are immediately sent for local grading to maximize returns.

In short, those who cannot purchase directly from casual collectors in China cannot really make money from Simplified Chinese cards, which makes most “investment” claims unrealistic. The only true profit is if you previously purchased cards, the market increased, and you can now say, “I made money.”

I highly suggest that those without direct, trusted contact and by that I mean a reliable middleman, not just a casual seller, should avoid purchasing. Many so-called “sellers” often keep the best cards and send you their leftovers. I’ve personally seen many sellers spamming on IG, advertising bulk lots (like 10x, 50x, or 100x copies) of expensive cards as Near Mint to MINT. However, once you receive the cards, you often find significant whitening or other issues. Their typical response is, “Yes, a PSA 7 is Near Mint, and a PSA 9 is Mint—what’s the problem?” While technically true, we all know that’s not what a buyer is expecting! Essentially, they maximize their return by keeping the best graded cards for themselves and reselling the “miss-grades” to the Western market. From a purely financial perspective, this is the absolute right decision, but it’s a necessary caution for anyone looking to enter this side of the business.

Interestingly, the situation is different for Japanese cards. Even though the Chinese cards are printed in Japan, the quality control, or at least the standard for perfection, seems different. Japanese cards have a huge advantage because the back of the card features a prominent yellow color. Due to the low contrast, minor imperfections like small white dots or scratches are less visible, or if you do see them, there’s a psychological effect where you automatically think, “it’s nothing.” In contrast, the Simplified Chinese card, like the Western version, uses a deep blue. Blue has a huge contrast with white, so even a tiny white dot can immediately make you feel very negatively about the card’s condition.

The analysis is entirely my opinion; you may choose whether or not to believe it. The data, however, are facts.

[Dyl]

If you are getting cards for <$4 and hitting $90 PSA 10s at a 75% rate, that’s a massive return. In a single submission of 100 cards, that would net you almost $4,900 of profit after accounting for shipping, insurance, and bulk grading fees. Even after short-term gains tax, I would imagine you’d net $3k+ on this hypothetical order.

That’s pretty insane for a single, repeatable, modern submission where PSA is buying 75% of your graded inventory immediately! Scale that to 3-4 submission per month and you would make six figures on Simplified Chinese Pokemon grading, and that’s probably underestimating.

Is your goal to scale like this?

[yamahap45]

Oh, you mean my play with , ‘If you were to scale this Chinese Pokémon card grading operation up.’ I thought you were talking about me running one of those grading companies in China, haha.

I don’t think it’s as easy as you say; this is all theoretical. Market cap is an abstract concept in the end. If too many market copies of the Grey Hat card are dumped onto the market, the card price will probably fall and the same applies here. If I grade hundreds of copies, I do not expect to receive $90 for each. I graded three copies of this, and PSA only offered me $90 for two of them.

Even if PSA wanted all my hundreds of copies for $90 each, you need to consider that there are limited copies in the raw market. Once I buy up all the cheapest ones, the price will go up. Other people will notice that play too, which will create competition, and so on.

Scaling is good, but there is a limit. That limit is when the CS sets catch up to the Japanese set, and we don’t know if they will continue to make exclusive artworks after that.

[koala]

Perks of having first access

[Dyl]

Right - that makes plenty of sense.

I suppose the thought is that you could focus on a subset of Simplified Chinese cards and rinse and repeat as the next big card is released. In some ways, it sounds eerily similar to tokyopokemon’s business, where he was buying Japanese chase cards in bulk, sending the gem mint prospects to grade, and selling the less then desirables raw.

This type of business structure is wayyyy too much work for me to ever be interested in it. Though I appreciate the insight that you’ve given, and I expect that some folks will attempt to try this out before supply becomes too saturated in North America.

I think a lot of folks are looking for infinite money glitches in ultramodern these days, but I fear that the majority of them are going to be stuck barely breaking even when the grading doesn’t turn out the way that they hoped, demand drops unexpectedly, or supply skyrockets faster than anticipated (e.g., 2025 McDonald’s Pikachu promo).

[yamahap45]

Right now, only four categories function as “infinite money glitches,” listed here in order of importance:

• The Pokémon Grading Company

• The big three grading companies (PSA, CGC, BGS)

• Marketplace (Ebay, TCGplayer etc.)

• Auction houses/consignment services

These three areas will perform extremely well for at least the next five years. Even if the secondary market does well or completely crashes, they will continue to have massive amounts of business.

[VinnieCannoli]

I compeltely skipped Mega Evolutions because of this card and its set. For me it’s Chinese Gengar Set → Phantasmal Flames.

[triplet3t]

Do you know what the current going prices are for these in the mainland? I am curious as to the prices there compared to the U.S.