The Future of Pokemon Financially [Serious Thread]

General
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Preface to the thread:

So I’ve been investing, playing, and collecting across 3 different TCGs (YuGiOh, MTG, and Pokemon) for the past 5 years or so - which does not include my childhood when I first started with these things. I have never had a lot of money or been able to just buy what I want so if I was going to try and achieve my goals of building decks or collections of cards - I had to be smart and financially aware. That is where I want to begin this thread. I have always been quite good at seeing trends, predicting spikes and falls, and generally finding a way to be smart with my money and end up ahead of where I was when I got in. With that being said - let’s talk about the future of PSA and Pokemon.

The Future of PSA in Pokemon: Up or Down?

So I know that PSA is just recently within the last year started to REALLY take off in Pokemon and peaked a lot of collector’s interest (including myself and am invested currently). Obviously it isn’t a new thing but the amount of people entering the scene within the last year is phenomenal and can be attributed a lot to 2 factors: 1. Pokemon Go 2. Collectors that played Pokemon when they were young are now of age and have real jobs so they can afford the cards they couldn’t when they were young and naive.
My concern comes from the fact that I believe we are in a severe peak in this interest. We all know Pokemon will withstand the test of time - that isn’t even a question. But how long will this peak in the prices of PSA Pokemon cards (specifically 10’s) last? I don’t personally see it lasting more than a year or so. I have already in the last couple months seen prices falling on Jungle, Fossil, and a lot of Neo cards. With every situation there are exceptions so I am not saying that every card will be decreasing - but overall, the decrease I feel will be pretty significant. It’s to the point where I am extremely skeptical about investing in anything other than a select few cards that I know will hold strong (PSA 10 Charizards from WoTC, etc).
My reasoning: I feel that there are only a limited amount of people with wallets deep enough to maintain this price fluctuation we are in. Once those collectors fill there needs (and I’ve talked to some personally) they will not be nearly as interested in continuing their buying habits. With any market - it is controlled by supply and demand. This brings me to my second and biggest point. The amount of cards being graded currently is through the roof. Within a year - populations for a lot of the expensive cards will be inflated and the amount of collectors interested in them will be decreased - creating a gap that leads to significant price decreases.
The exceptions: With every situation there will be exceptions - but finding them is difficult. I believe cards that are super expensive currently (that aren’t the obvious base set 1st editions) like the Legendary Dogs from Neo Revelations, Typhlosion #17, and Gold Stars from ex Deoxys will remain extremely high because it is extremely unlikely supply will ever meet demand for them. I also believe that sets with higher populations already like Gym Heroes, Gym Challenge, and Team Rocket won’t change too much because there supply is high enough to meet demand currently (for the most part).

Conclusion: Down

Future of Ungraded Cards: Up or Down?

This is a bit trickier market to predict but a MUCH safer market to be invested in. There won’t be huge fluctuations in the prices of ungraded cards. Collecting complete sets of older WoTC cards will always be a solid investment as long as the cards in question are NM/M condition. I do feel that if you want to be in the ungraded card market - that the graded card market’s success will directly influence your cards availability and price point because of the price jump that a grade offers a card.
One thing I did want to mention about collecting ungraded cards over graded cards is that a lot of people grade with the intention of selling for a profit - so as soon as that stops becoming as profitable - the ungraded card market will see more mint cards available but i don’t necessarily see any price increase for investing purposes.

Conclusion: Down or StableFuture of Pokemon Sealed Product: Up or Down?

I know a lot of people that are firm believers in sealed product being the way to go. I have to say that I am leaning in that direction as well - but it is not without concern. If you invested in sealed product starting 1-2 years ago and earlier then you are good to go. If you are looking to buy in currently then I’m afraid that I don’t see the best returns for you down the road. Like I’ve stated - we are at a severe peak in the Pokemon price points currently. Boxes in the 2k-3k range are just insane. But I don’t want to discourage anyone from purchasing sealed product. If you can find the correct box to invest in then you can still do well. I feel that most of the old WotC boxes are just a stable investment currently and not profitable. Fossil is a box I think could be the exception here. At 700-800, I feel there might be some room for growth with the amount of Fossil boxes still being opened. The same goes for Base 1st Edition. If you get a hold of one of those for under 10k somehow then keep that locked in a vault somewhere.
My reasoning: I feel like the same thing applies to these expensive boxes. When the PSA market decides it wants to decline - the value of a lot of these boxes will fall - but not drastically. I’m simply saying that boxes like Neo Revelation for example won’t be $1800 but maybe $1200-$1400 instead. But overall I feel like keeping these boxes is not a bad idea for the long run. A lot of what I have been talking about is the short term future. In 10-20 years - I feel like the extremely relevant boxes will be worth a good bit more and the boxes not everyone cares about will be worth similar amounts but a 10-20 year predicition is impossible to make. This is something I’m just speaking opinion on.

Conclusion: Down or Stable

In conclusion - I just wanted to start a thread to discuss these points. I’m always looking for ways to advance my knowledge and understanding of the market to protect my investments and make the smartest choices so I can continue my passions and hobbies. I understand that I could be completely wrong or completely correct and that predictions are guesses - so don’t tear me apart too bad!

**I also realize that this is not a complete discussion. There are many factors and cards I did not cover. This is something that a month long seminar couldn’t cover. Just trying to hit some of the main points I feel like affect the market**

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Very interesting. Here’s some data to follow up.

Google trends shows search history back to Jan 1, 2004. Looking at July 2016 you can see the massive rush of interest in the search term “Pokemon Cards”. Almost a complete vertical rise, and as we all know caused by the Pokemon Go app. After this there is a small dip followed by a rebound from the Evolutions and Sun and Moon sets. I used the broadest search term possible to get a general feel for the TCG market. The amount of interest started in July 2016 and even up to today is still huge compared to the past 12 years. Now looking ahead we can see a very big dip…almost a complete vertical, but this time going down instead of up. I’m curious to know what your guys thoughts are on this. Do you see it stabilizing, or plummeting down to pre July interest. Again by no means is this the tell all way to judge interest in the market, but it does give a good idea.

Also, it would have been really cool if google had data back to 1999. Of course it would probably not be very accurate given the fact that computers were no where nearly as widely accessible or used…oh and there was Ask Jeeves lol. :grin:

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I remember 5-7 years ago people said the same exact thing: Only a few people buy trophy cards, 1st Edition base, etc. Of course looking back, that was obviously incorrect.

Saying something “peaked” is only done in hindsight. Even then, it is not entirely accurate. People stated in 2009-2010 Pokémon “peaked” in the 90s. Here we are, and prices are well above any other time.

Also, in relation to supply, it is much more difficult to obtain anything old. Old Sealed boxes, actual ungraded mint 1st ed wotc cards, high end Japanese promos. These are very scarce, frustratingly scarce. It reminds me of vintage sports. You cannot find ungraded mint anything in vintage sports. It isn’t 1:1 but I get the same general feeling.

What is happening right now is the age group who grew up with the hobby are getting into their careers. I personally don’t think that has fully occurred. This paradigm is nothing new. That is what happened with sports cards. What sustains sports? It is the same process as Pokémon. Very limited product; the older it gets the more historic it will become. GX cards only make Base charizard more of an artifact. Those old cards are iconic. Even people who don’t necessarily collect Pokémon will buy them.

The market is much larger than our individual personal perception. I always think I know the markets perimeters, then I sell 50 new Sealed product in one day and am dumbfounded. How many buyers are actually out there that I don’t know is overwhelming. Sometimes I think our scope naturally focuses on the concentrated community (E4, social media, etc) and we use that as our metric for the entire markets potential.

Ultimately unless there is someone who has 1,000s of old wotc boxes and fires them on eBay, I don’t see any realistic threat of a drop off. I just don’t see the necessary exorbitant supply to justify a decline. It’s been years for some items to regularly surface and they simply never consistently appear. Even when they did, trainer b for example, it was temporary.

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Want to also say a great and interesting read,

My response is specifically on your first point of PSA and Pokemon, I feel I know more about this, than sealed products or ungraded cards, but it could relate,

I think your right PSA and Pokemon has spiked this year, 100%, will there be a small slowdown, I would probably say yes, however I would caution mass price drops, PSA cards are actually only know just finding their price values for the additional collectors entering the market,

Some notably cards were sold too high this year to people willing to pay the price, to complete collections, when actually as you said patience would have got a far better deal for buyers, as pokemon has been graded more than ever therefore inevitable population rises, increase of supply and therefore bigger price movements,

However there can only be a limited number of PSA 9/10 1st edition WOTC era cards, and once they are in serious collectors hands, that’s it, they are out of the supply chain for the long term, lowering supply,

The market will have wobbles, especially if the chance of long term price increases is unlikely, but I can confidently say in 5 years time, WOTC 1st edition PSA 9/10s and sealed boxes will have a higher price tag than today, simply because the mint ungraded 1st edition will run out, booster boxes will become too expensive and not worth the risk opening and long term collectors will keep the cards,

Other TCGs have already led the way for Pokemon to follow, long term, the prices now are cheap, short term, spikes and falls will continue to happen, but I do not envisage and do not see any evidence of mass dumping’s of the cards, also wallets get deeper as the collectors get older :blush:

I agree with a lot of what your saying in the post, but I do not see significant price drops in the hobby anytime soon, maybe just for some exceptions, especially new cards PSA graded,

Again very interesting read as you can gather I am maybe more optimistic about the current level of market in the hobby, again this year some cards will be spike and fall, just about knowing which ones :blush:

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Was hoping you would chime in. Always good to hear from someone who has been around the market as long as you have. I agree that the market is much larger than most of us can believe and that the supply of older product has dwindled significantly this past year. I know a guy who cracked over 100 boxes of “old inventory” recently and there is no telling how many other old shop owners still have their product collecting dust awaiting to enter the market. There are too many variables to say anything for sure - I am mostly talking about the overall scope of the people’s interest in the game and willingness to pay the prices that are being set. How much will that diminish or increase in the next 5-10 years? Who’s to say. I feel like the past can’t be brought up when it comes to Pokemon vs any game the preceded it due to how relevant the Internet is these days. The Internet has changed everything for everyone and is a variable that only time will tell how it affects things.

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I very much like your optimistic outlook on the future and hope that everything you said becomes a reality. Time will tell! But I tell you - like I told Scott - I think the Internet is a variable that shouldn’t be overlooked. Any games that preceded Pokemon didn’t have the Internet affecting things like we do today. There is no telling how the long run is affected by something like that.

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Great read so far and very interesting points made by all.

In speaking on the spike in popularity due to Pokemon Go/ 20th Anniversary I think this had brought a lot of new folks into the marketplace. Some are adults that played/ collected cards during the initial boom. Some are new folks that are just into new sets. In the end I think that those markets sit outside the more serious collectors that are after PSA cards. I think this more niche group of individuals isn’t as prone to the up and down trends that you see in general Pokemon searches. Sure there is still a spike in interest in PSA card searches and people learn about Pokemon, find their old collections, want to sell them, get more monies. But the percent of people in the hobby after PSA cards is small and likely growing at a fairly steady rate. In my opinion it will continue to grow over time, albeit slowly.

Interesting comparisons (links aren’t working, may have to copy pasta)
Pokemon PSA searches:
www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=pokemon%20PSA

Pokemon PSA searches vs Pokemon Card searches:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=pokemon%20PSA,Pokemon%20Cards

Pokemon PSA searches vs Pokemon Card searches vs Pokemon Go searches:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=pokemon%20PSA,Pokemon%20Cards,Pokemon%20Go
Pokemon PSA searches vs Pokemon Card searches vs Pokemon Go searches vs Donald Our honorable president searches:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=pokemon%20PSA,Pokemon%20Cards,Pokemon%20Go,Donald%20Trump

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Great reasoning, but I disagree on a few major points. Just want to preface this by saying that we should all recognize Scott just sold a Pokemon card at auction for $50k. That’s elevated the discussion about Pokemon’s financial future to a new level.

First, you note that interest in Pokemon will stand the test of time, but interest in PSA cards will not. Why? I think you somewhat contradict yourself by stating that “collectors that played Pokemon when they were young are now of age and have real jobs so they can afford the cards they couldn’t when they were young and naive.” This is obviously a large driving force for the price increases. What’s not to say this will continue as these people make more money throughout their lifetimes? Prices for newer generations will IMO see a spike when the the kids that grew up with that gen become financially able to spend more money on their hobby. Populations will always grow, but so will interest and people willing to spend. PSA has quickly grew to a major influence in the hobby. Right now I think most people view PSA as a money machine, and that’s simply not the truth. Over time this will stabilize. PSA is the grader of the hobby. If the hobby grows, so will the stock of PSA cards within it. I forecast the long-term strength of PSA cards as strong with values going up.

Second, I think ungraded cards are very era-specific. For modern era cards, where TCG playability is king, grading is not highly present. For older cards where 9s and 10s receive marked increases in price, grading is highly present. As is already the case, premiums are paid for mint old-school cards. For newer ones, not so much. I forecast the future of mint ungraded WOTC cards as strongand the future of newer ungraded cards as irrelevant right now.

Third, on your conclusions with sealed product, I think it’s again not correct. We see almost across-the-board increases in sealed product even over a few years. Two years ago I bought sealed tins with four EX Series packs for $25 per. Can’t do that now. People drop 10-12k on a 1ED base set box, what’s to say they won’t do that on 1ED Neo Destiny in 5 years? Sealed product has been one of the most solid long-term investments in the hobby, and there are no major changes in TPCI’s operating process that would signal a change to that. I forecast the future of sealed products as about as strong as possible.

I think we all underestimate the financial power of Pokemon at our peril.

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OP, I completely agree with you; I made a similar post about how we are in a Pokemania v2 bubble right now and I’m not sure people really want to believe that just based off moving product; but people quickly forget that moving specific product is simply out of reach for the masses that are fueling this bubble which mainly are younger people who can’t afford to PSA cards or boxes of sealed product (a ‘new generation’ if you will) caught up from the Pokemon Go and Sun and Moon hype and to a lesser degree, those of us that are older with now established careers just getting back into the hobby and not immediately snatching up every PSA-graded 3 and 4 figure-priced cards (i’m 29 now and was in the thick of Pokemania in 1999 pretty obsessively).

I do think people are vastly overlooking the impact of social media and the hype factor it brings as a whole; regardless of market fluctuations the influence of social media simply cannot be ignored…Pokemon’s exposure via PoGo this past Summer was honestly unlike anything I saw in 1998-2000, simply because the internet revolution was only just starting to pick up vs now where social media is an absolute force. Sure, we might not see a ton of fluctuation in the market NOW, but later on when this new generation of TCG players get older…the cycle should continue…yet the markets won’t reflect that for a while.

I don’t see any massive price drops that will cripple the market and this hobby outside of some more ridiculous maneuvers like reprinting Roaring Skies…which I doubt will happen, even if it’s possible.

That said, it’s undeniable that this hobby should get some smaller bubbles/spikes here and there as there is now a symbiotic relationship with the overall public outlook and popularity of the Pokemon brand that was spurred on by PoGo and the Sun/Moon games. Pokemon had not seen a resurgence “event” quite like what those two games did for the brand’s image since Pokemania in 1999…we’ve had a ton of card releases in the last 15 years that haven’t seen nearly as much success as Evolutions, for example, which benefited greatly from the Pokemon high everyone is still experiencing. We’ll likely see that success continue with Sun/Moon but after that i’m not so sure that the same amount of momentum will continue.

I guess my TL;DR is the TCG market is not going anywhere anytime soon and while we’ll see what some of the older sellers will say as ‘normal’ fluctuations we will also invariably see some spikes and dips based on the popularity of the Pokemon brand in general moving forward (as well as when this new generation of younger Pokemon fans start to get older and the cycle continues).

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I just wanted to stop in and say that the trading card market as a whole was already trending upward prior to pokemon go coming out. Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky rookie cards went from being increasingly watched to nearly doubling in price as they were auctioned off higher and higher. Pokemon card sets that had sat on ebay for over 6 months were already vanishing. Many of these cards resurfaced after Pokemon go came out at higher prices, but the demand was already there and I think it’s a mistake to attribute those price increases to Pokemon go.

Now, I don’t think Pokemon go HURT the market. I’m sure it may even have had a positive impact on sales. However, I think for anyone who meticulously watches the market for collectibles noticed a huge spike in interest last year.

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Nobody had mentioned it yet, and I just want to stop in to add to it. What they did with roaring skies will long term affect the hobby overall in a very negative way. Not just the current stuff, but all the way back to the WoTC product. Everything with their name on it. I am not saying all Pokemon stuff is guaranteed to go to 0 and to sell it all because it is junk, but what they did totally destroyed their credibility and effects will be across the board though people may not realize it. Even though they can’t reprint any of the WoTC stuff, when a company that represents all of the stuff from the beginning does something questionable at best down the line, it has ramifications throughout.

Nobody would understand the parallel, but my name on eBay being sieds_steins relates to a small local outfit near me. A brewery that has sold steins all the way back to 1959. Up through 2003 or so they have released 40 or so steins here and there with solid quality and name recognition with a nice following. They had similar “out of print” steins and limited 1st edition quantities that performed very well. Prices up and up and up. You couldn’t go wrong “investing” in any of their product. $60-$80 steins a few years later going to $100-$300. Very recently, the past 3-5 years they have abused the quality of their product, along with increased releases and reintroduction of previously “retired” steins as well as “reprinting” steins in 1st edition after their 1st edition runs supposedly ran out. Now there have been about 40 more releases in the past 10 years after about 40 in the first 30-40 years. It was all short term minded just as this roaring skies reprint was, and it helped nobody but the brewery shop. It was short-sighted and IMO a moronic money grab that made them 10’s of thousands and cost them 100’s of thousands. People sold out after seeing the companies abusive practices and realizing they couldn’t be trusted. That is the same way I see this roaring skies reprint. Short term, short sighted and misled money grab in which they may make hundreds of thousands and may cost themselves millions over the coming years. I may just be ranting here and people can say I am off base and I may well be. I am just a small guy, but I know I am scaling back or completely abolishing my plan to buy 5-10 cases of each release before going out of print. I don’t anticipate it being as bad as the whole stein thing, but I think it will hurt them across the board. Whether that is just lower growth or decreases instead of increases remain to be seen.

Disclaimer that I am still “long” a lot of early WOTC product, graded and not and also that I ordered several cases of this roaring skies reprint, but I just don’t like it one bit and think it only hurt the entire hobby going forward and the investment scene going back all the way to base set 1st edition.

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I had read somewhere that they did something similar a while back, Next Destinies era, in order to put the packs in blisters. I wasn’t collecting then so I don’t know if there is any fact behind that, was just curious if others could shine some light on it.

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Nintendo TCG makes decisions to maximise their profits at every opportunity as any large company does; they do not care about any sets that are not in print anymore as they make $0 off them. They are looking to the future and thinking of ways to maximise sales and creating appealing products for future sets. The reprinting of Roaring Skies is not going to be the downfall of Pokemon cards or hurt its brand much if at all.

In all honesty if there was a situation where Nintendo could sell all their future booster boxes at a 20% premium and in return cause every out of print set all the way down to base crash and be valued at $50 max they would take that deal in a microbeat.

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Not a lot of time to chime in on this thread but wanted to reply to this.

If you’re saying the reprints hurt the price of the originals it brings to mind base2. From the day it was released, all the way up to today, it has helped the base 1 value. The same is true with LC.

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I was trying to say that a diminished perception of, and faith in the primary company responsible for the new product and the past product can only negatively affect the value of all product under their name going forward. That was what I was trying to bring into the conversation with my analogy on the stein stuff. Maybe that was all doomed to crash ( I do believe it was ), but I think it crashed harder because of their actions. Actions that were similar to TPCI reprinting roaring skies after calling it “out of print”.

I am not saying it will go down. I am not saying it will go up. I am simply saying that due to this reprinting of roaring skies, the only affect can be negative as the faith and them and the value of their word has completely gone to zero. I still believe many Pokemon products will perform well over the next several years, hence my disclaimer on the fact that I am (semi) heavily vested in some Pokemon stuff, though that fact is likely fairly evident given my extensive participation in this forum.

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The future should be good, as long as speculators don’t get involved.

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@thecardguyz Not sure what you mean about the internet. The internet has been around since Pokemon started. People were using it to buy/sell/trade back in the 90’s until now. Do you mean social media? That hit the scene in around 2011-12 and you saw an increase in the market. More people aware of the market, more people involved. Some of what I mentioned in my last post was when social media existed (2011-Now).

Also, this sounds exactly like the general speculation you heard about Pokémon from the outset. You can probably dig on this site alone and see the exact same topic. After re-reading everything, I simply don’t see any in depth analysis explaining why one should worry.

Oh and @fourthstartcg hit it on the head. That illustrator auction is one example of the market that exists outside of the perceived “Pokemon community”. There are people that spend what we spend in a lifetime, in a year. Even that Illustrator auction wasn’t ideal. There were two dumbfucks that tried to sabotage the auction by false bidding.

However, that illustrator auction highlights the current reality of Pokemon. That auction had 4 times the views than any other item in the selection = Very popular. Heritage told me they never experienced that bid bs before = immature. Pokemon is popular, but still young and immature. Serious collecting is in its infancy. I simply don’t see any quantifiable evidence to warrant legitimate worry.

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Speculators have been involved since the beginning and will be involved until the end. No way to stop that. Extent of involvement may be debated, but they are, and will always be around.

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@smpratte wasn’t the illustrator sale a price drop though? From what one similarly graded had previously sold privately a few years ago? That is kind of a shock given the overall across the board increases in all WoTC and early era Pokemon stuff. (I liked hearing in your video it referred to as “WOT-SEE”. I never really talk in person to anyone about Pokemon and never heard that). I was surprised at the final realized price given the price history that you detailed, though I am aware and disgusted of the shit that went down regarding that auction and the bid retractions and such.

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right now I see the PSA cards as a big hype than usual and its a money grabber. it will go stabilize later on and prices will increase as more and more fan favorite cards get produced or more collectors are on the hunt for certain cards

sealed items have gone way up to back a few years ago same can be said of lots of other pokemon products in the past months like plushies and toys as well. with pokemon that was in the 20th anniversary ALOT of things were build around the anniversary.it has helped it grow more and more each time. pokemon go was the most downloaded iOS app for 2016 and lots of players who havent played a pokemon game go back into it cause of the nostalga plus the interest in the new pokemon. Pokemon Sun and Moon were the most preordered game in history and the cards themselves have increased in popularity so much its even hard to keep up demand at times. Evolutions sold very well and there are still people asking for it