In the last two PWCC runs, I have come in second with record high bids in the amount of nearly 100,000.00. As close as I can figure, the difference between 2nd and 3rd was over 20,000.00 which would be what I drove the price up…without winning.
Tonight it was a bgs9.5 shadowless. 2nd place again.
Keep in mind none of these were lowballs. Most were record setting bids.
So what does this tell us? Well, even if you’re willing to over pay, it probably won’t be enough. Someone will be willing to overpay more.
Now Scott likes to say that it’s not overpaying unless there’s a cheaper option. Well he’s a lot smarter than I am so I’m just going to go cry alone into my pillow:(
I would say there is such a thing as over paying but it exists more in the “Buy It Now” realm and less in auctions. If two people are willing to “overpay” is it really overpaying? I would say no.
If one person swoops up that only listing of a PSA 10 Whateverchu for $11k they might have “overpaid” but price is only relevant in a point in time. If there is nothing to compare it to at that point in time can you overpay? Personally, I say yes. Theoretically I guess not. It’s a lot easier to say someone overpaid in retrospect.
I think it’s just something that happens with exclusive items. The T206 cards that sell high often only have a couple or a few bidders driving the record setting prices. The more rare and exclusive the cards the narrower the field of bidders until it’s only a couple or a few competing at the top… (the 1991 Copeland auction for example)— the Sotheby’s (Copeland) auctions were among the first of the early record setting auctions in baseball at that time… many cards sold for double and triple of what they were previously presumed to be valued.
Another thought… If you overpaid on bid but lost, does that mean the market’s value of the item is any less than your losing bid or the winner’s winning bid? The competing bidder had to decide what it was worth to them and placed a higher bid value. Whatever the result, the winning bidder set the value (bar) on the market for that item… So you weren’t actually overpaying, you bid the market value.
That said, I’m positive I’m not telling you anything new, just sharing my thoughts
I’m just saying I personally don’t think it’s overvaluation. The 91’ Copeland auction parallels what’s happening in Pokemon today and with the BGS 10 zard… it only took two bidders each to drive Mantle to 50k and Wagner to 450k. It may be a bit early yet to make those parallels but I see the similarities. Very deep pockets were invloved yes but the valuation didn’t lessen in the long run. Two bidders, five or twenty the result remains the same.
Either way you got the recent big fish already brother, so honestly I wouldn’t worry about it if I were you
I think you should be thankful for that beautiful Pristine shadowless that you won - without even having to fight at the end! $19k is a great bargain and that price is only going to skyrocket over the next 10 years.
I’ve bid on a specific card 6 times. That’s every time it came up in the last several months. I was second every time. But I have a hard limit and it’s only gone past my bid that single increment. It looks like uncanny consistency of end price but really I’m just setting the prices until one day, I win it or others choose to be second instead.
True haha… Though I was only really referring to the BGS 9.5 and 10 cards that recently came up for sale (in the context that there isn’t a cheaper option)
and we have to factor in other world lines to like in steinsgate.
