M’ is one bright cookie. Don’t even think he doesn’t know better;)
The Pokemon market isn’t as developed as sports yet. Not a lot of people thus far have been searching out BGS cards. Down the line just as it does with sports, it will develop the general trend that:
BGS 10> PSA 10 > BGS 9.5 > PSA 9 >>> BGS 9*
*Please note specifically what I said and also what I didn’t say. “General” trend in that outliers will always exist. On average though that is how it is in other markets and that is how we have seen it with the high end of the Pokemon market. Naturally BGS 9.5 grade will grow eventually with people upgrading their PSA 9’s and people will also increase slightly the pristine market as many PSA 10’s will send there shooting for BGS 10.
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Wouldn’t you think these people that cross over bgs 9.5 to 10’s look over their cards first? I assume who ever this “test group” M is referring to picks out their best or most qualified bgs 9.5s.
Why would they send in a 9.5 that they wouldn’t think would make the cut? I would have to imagine the people crossing over picked cards they thought were flawless to begin with and thought PSA would recognize that.
If that thought process is indeed correct, that skews the numbers tremendously, because I doubt people are grabing any 9.5 they can find and sending it over.
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To address the other issues @missingno IMO was correct where he said 9/10 times a BGS 10 card will be better quality than a PSA 10. The market realizes that as well as we can see the increased prices realized. @garyis2000 has a lot of anecdotal evidence of that as well in his crossover attempts.
Where @missingno was quite incorrect was when he said “9/10 times a BGS 9 or 9.5 will grade a PSA 10” but he was correct in stating in the same sentence that “9/10 times … a PSA 10 will grade a 9.5 or even a 9 BGS grade.” The first half is just not true though there has been a BGS 9 going to a PSA 10 as I believe @pokemonsyndicate has the screenshots. It was a case of a low centering subgrade and very high other subgrades. Off center cards simply can’t do well at BGS due to their final grade calculation method, but they do tend to drag the grades up of worn cards that happen to have nice centering. The centering subgrade is cause for much of the inconsistency between BGS and PSA in the lower grades.
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BGS 9 grading as a PSA 10 is a black swan event, it’s definitely not 9/10 times. I wouldn’t even bother sending in a BGS 9 to crossover to a PSA 10 it’s completely improbable.
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Right on the money.
I hate to admit it but the reason I bought a BGS 9 card a week or so ago is because a lot of people hype Beckett and I fell for it. Lesson learned and I knew it was bound to happen as I’m still a n00b when it comes to Pokemon hence the silly username. I’m glad it was on a small purchase.
The truth is a few days prior you had offered me that same card(Blastoise Unlimited PSA 9) and I actually paid more if I include ebay’s wonderful global shipping for basically a PSA 7-ish card.
Now I know what you mean about being cautious pricewise about that BGS 10 Shadowless Chard. I know you’ll surely make a substantial bid on it though. 
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I agree %100. I will add that to me 9/10 means “more than likely”, so I’ve seen; recently. I’ve seen more BGS 9.5’s crossover to PSA 10 then PSA 10’s crossover to Black labels but instead PSA 10’s to 9.5’s. No troll intended, only opinions based upon facts.
You’re doing the most now.
Lol…you’re probably right:)
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You have to be careful using a statement that has a clear literal meaning and having your own definition for it that conflicts.
9/10 to most everyone means literally 90% of the time. Even “more than likely” I don’t think you statement was on par in my opinion, but certainly less outlandish than saying 90% which to most people here is what you were saying when you said 9/10. I myself overuse “always” and “never” in person too frequently when I am trying to mean “most times” and “rarely” but when you add in numbers to it that makes it even harder to justify the misuse of a literal fraction that has a solid value.
I think you may be attributing some recent small scale happenings and making a trend out of it that just isn’t there overall though. I send some solid BGS 9.5’s that I find myself here and there to PSA and overall I have a fairly low success rate. Though it doesn’t take too many to profit. I have never sent cards to BGS yet though I do have a stack of “strong” PSA 10’s I will try for BGS 10 with little hope and I have a stack of strong 9’s I am fairly confident can earn BGS 9.5’s though I have never seen a PSA 9 that I felt could be anywhere near a BGS 10 in my own experiences.
What do you say if I told you I’ve crossed over PSA 9s to BGS 9.5s (multiple times, not just once)? Also, at best you’re using a misleading statistic which is shameful. It’s like me saying 100% of my PSA 1s have crossed over to BGS 10-1 grades.
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Personally if a BGS isn’t all sub 9.5 or higher I don’t bother with BGS. From personal experience and watching SMPratt’s video on YouTube about BGS grading services it really is questionable grading for bgs pokemon lower than a 9.5 overall grade. Better to go with premium psa where the grade holds true on 9s and lower. Going with grades lower than a 9.5 or 9 with BGS is personal preference. Really, if BGS 9s and lower matched the same quality in grades as psa I would go with BGS all day no matter what. Mainly because I love there cases. All personal opinion. My post isn’t meant to be an argument. 
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I think this might be more accurate to add on to what you said. It’s matter of opinion right now until real proof over time comes in as pokemon grows in both companies, but I think it’s close to accurate.
- BGS 10 (black label)** unicorn card/just take it out of the conversation
- BGS 10 (3x10 1x9.5)
- BGS 9.5 (2x10 2x9.5) & PSA 10 strong
- BGS 9.5 (1x10 3x9.5)
- PSA 10 weak
- BGS 9.5 (quad 9.5)
- BGS 9.5 (1x9, 3x9.5)
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Gary, I support you in making another legendary purchase. Good luck. After buying those last few cards from you, I’ve been bringing lunch from home every day. 
I am betting the BGS 10 shadowless card will go for just above 20k.
This is the most useful post so far. I think PSA 10 Weak = BGS 9.5 Quad. Everything else is on point.
If you ever want to trade your PSA 10 ‘weak’ for any of my BGS 9.5 (1x10 3x9.5) I’ll gladly trade.
To elaborate on this that’s the grade I would expect it to cross over to PSA 10, but there’s still a chance against it, and I’d take the garuntee financial benifit. Even the highest 9.5 I’d consider a trade, but if you’re talking from a quality standpoint it’s hard for me to argue the half 10 half 9.5 subgrade.
You really need to do some crossing over yourself to know, but the answer is no. PSA 10 ‘weak’ > BGS quad 9.5.
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Splitting hairs way too finely in the above posts. I’m sticking with what I said. Again this is in general and as far as value goes but there will be some outliers.
BGS 10> PSA 10 > BGS 9.5 > PSA 9 >>> BGS 9
Bringing in different subgrades of BGS is valid as certainly anyone can understand that a BGS 9.5 (1x10, 3x 9.5) > BGS 9.5 (quad 9.5) but when we note that there are 4 different possible BGS 9.5 1x10, 3x9.5’s it just becomes silly to try and define them all. Also bringing in the classic “strong PSA 10”, “weak PSA 10”. Well what about super strong, ultra strong, semi iffy, and moderately okay PSA 10’s? What about “super ultra gem pristine perfect BGS 10’s” vs the “weak BGS 10s”. Just go by the above rubric and BUY THE CARD not the grade.
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Lol, if you have an unlimited Shining Charizard BGS 9.5, I’ll trade you a “weak” PSA 10 from a friend of mine.
PM me. I’ll be waiting.
I think PSA 10’s threshold have gotten lower/softer so I think the tide is turning a little bit on the odds of BGS 9.5 flipping over to a PSA 10. BGS 9.5 is looking more opportunistic, although PSA 10 still holds the premium and the advantage.
I think this collection of posts perfectly encapsulates the futility of trying to gather some sort of definitive consensus on this entire debate. People seem to forget that the minute differences between 9.5 and 10 grades can at times be completely subjective. Between BGS and PSA, you are comparing two completely different grading processes, both subjected to human error. There’s no definitive distribution of subgrades of a BGS graded card that inherently surpass the quality of a PSA 10 graded card. This is why buyers should evaluate the card on a CASE BY CASE basis before purchasing.
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If anyone wants more evidence of the low-quality of BGS cards with a grade of 9 or lower:
This thing looks like a PSA 6 on a good day.