Lol yes I agree. That doesn’t change the fact that the pre-determined pull rate of Lugia is 1 out of 57 packs, or that Lugia is the most valuable card in the set. If there were 8 holos in Neo Genesis the pull rate of Lugia would be 1 out of 24 packs and it would likely be cheaper. Instead there are 19.
the point Scott is making in simple terms is that there is a false equivalency that has been set up here from a few people. They are comparing the rate of pulling a crystal charizard to the rate of pulling ANY Gold Star or ANY holo. If you do the same math for each individual gold star, or each holo then you get the fact that Crystal Charizard isn’t as rare COMPARATIVELY to how people are framing it against other cards. And that is indeed fact, not feeling.
Remember that a 1st edition Chansey Holo is the same rarity as a 1st edition Charizard. The desirability in that instance is much more important than the rarity, which is true of many many things in life. Still they do not effect the numbers.
Pop reports also don’t lie…especially for an item that is very valuable. People are going to pull them out to sell.
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I explicitly stated that obviously based on pull rates a gold star charizard is much rarer than crystal. It’s the 6:108 crystal odds I think is misleading since it assumes all crystals are the same price point. Likewise I wouldn’t use 2:144 for dragon frontiers gold stars since there is a huge price discrepancy between Mew and charizard.
no it literally does not assume anything about the price point. prices have literally NOTHING to do with the odds of pulling a given card.
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The odds of pulling a Crystal are 6:108. The odds of pulling a Crystal Charizard are 1:72. How is that debatable?
@smpratte Scott I’m talking specifically about the chance of pulling a crystal holo charizard, not any crystal card, but only the crystal holo charizard. If the pullrate of a crystal card in the skyridge set is 1:18 and you have 6 crystal cards, the chance of specifically getting that crystal holo charizard is 1:108.
Whereas with the goldstar charizard, the chance of getting a goldstar card in the ex dragon frontier set is 1:72, since you have two goldstar cards in the set the chance of specifically getting the goldstar charizard is 1:144.
am I this bad at explaining this stuff?
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@chappo, I completely understand! I was emphasizing even with that analogy, the Crystal Zard is still easier to pull.
But… the 1:72 is for any gold star, and the 1:144 is explicitly for Charizard. Sure you can call it 2:144 for any gold star and 1:144 for Charizard if you want
I’m confused as to what you are trying to debate now. if you are just agreeing that the gold star charizard has a harder pull rate than the crystal charizard than sure that is all that was being said to begin with
I’m confused too lol. I think there were some misinterpretations along the way
I was saying that there were some users who were conflating the pull rate of just crystal charizard against the pull rate of any gold star and saying the charizard was more rare because of it
it was specifically about only pulling the Crystal holo charizard compared to specifically pulling X goldstar from set Y, not all goldstars from set Y. I only did this because some people said that this card isn’t that rare.
But then again, doing this debate is a little pointless without knowing the exact pullrates of a crystal card in the Skyridge set, somewhere I read that there are 3 crystal cards in a Skyridge box, but those 3 can be either holo (like the crystal holo charizard) or a reverse holo crystal pokemn. That would exactly put the pullrate of the crystal holo charizard at 1:144.
From personal experience and one of my first YT videos I pulled all 3 crystals from an Aquapolis. I’m not sure if the quality control was as good. I’ve seen several people get zero. The crystals from skyridge sounds about accurate. I’ve seen some people get 4-6 including the reverses.
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4-6?! Hot Damn!
Never seen more than 3 personally and have rarely seen 0 but it does happen. 4-6 is crazy though! Wow!
That 1:27 refers to the odds of pulling a holo or crystal in the rare slot. A pack has 9 cards. A holo or crystal in every three packs. Thus you have 1 in 27 cards or 1 in three packs. This doesn’t factor in the reverse holo slot either.
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Sorry to revive this old topic, but I think it is amazing and just mind blowing how there was that price drop back in 2019 and how you could get a PSA 10 crystal Charizard for $1800. I know that it must have been pricey back then comparative to the market at the time and everything in general was a lot cheaper. But comparing that 2019 price to the current PSA10 Crystal Charizard is just crazy! 
If you compare it to the stock market and invested $1800 in the S&P 500 at the start of 2019 the value as of now (2023) would be only be $3,359.70 (a ROI of 86.65%). Whereas if you bought that Crystal Charizard for $1800 and use the most recent ebay sale of about $13,000, that’s a ROI of 622.2% 
.
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It was kind of crazy how similar the PSA 9 price was to the 10 price back then too. They’ve definitely diverged since
You can also see the little PSA 10 bubble referenced earlier in this thread. So quaint now.
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Wow!! That is crazy how close they were back then. I didn’t get back into collecting until late 2020 and oh boy how I wish I got back in just a tad bit earlier 
I bought at around 3.5k right around the first spike on pfms chart, then it dropped to sub $2000. Wasn’t worried, what happened with the price was expected and I still have the card 
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Oh wow! Good to hear that you weren’t worried and I’m glad to hear you kept it!