Above I show that you should expect a regular crystal charizard in 1/3 boxes. For reverse, every pack has one. 144 cards in the set, 36 packs per box
36/144 = 0.25
So that’s a reverse charizard in 1 of 4 boxes. This assumes all reverses are equally rare.
What about the Japanese version? It comes in both 1st edition and unlimited versions. Anyone know if Japanese crystal cards have similar pull rates as the English counterparts? To compare, I know that the Neo revelation and Neo destiny shinings are harder to pull from Japanese packs.
Interesting and I stand corrected regarding the pull rate.
Although… on paper it may be statistically easier it still doesn’t mean that you’ll pull the Charizard which is the most desired card from the set.
Plus nobody is going to break a box to try any time soon because of the cost of the box.
Some interesting factors still to consider:
Did they make all secret rare cards equally rare? Or did they make Charizard’s more difficult to acquire? I have no idea but it would be interesting if someone knew.
Also, on paper you are correct that you SHOULD have an equal chance to get a Charizard as much as any other crystal but it doesn’t mean it’s true as we do not know if they distributed the crystals unevenly e.g less Charizard’s and more Celebi’s.
Would love to know if wotc did put in less Zards in packs as apposed to other cards 
Of course, I don’t disagree with any of this. In the end the total print numbers will dictate the true “rarity” of the card. We know Skyridge has a particularly low print run even without the benefit of the 1st ed stamp. It’s still 1 regular crystal charizard in every 3 boxes. Boxes are on the order of $10k now… do the math
I think the pull numbers actually highlight how rare the regular holos are more than anything
I don’t understand the “same pull rate as a holo” argument… so does base set Charizard, lol. This is a secret rare version of Charizard, from an extremely desirable set, with a limited supply as boxes are unlilkely to keep being opened.
I wanna know where people get their pullrates from, or are the numbers just literally pulled out of their asses?
Afaik you can get 3 Crystal cards per box, this includes the holos and reverse holos.
We can talk all day if nobody has the actual data on these ones.
Like I said on the european Aquapolis packs the chance of getting a crystal card is given at 1:27.
From what I saw on YouTube and other collector’s opening experience, there are usually 12 holos in a box, with the holo crystals replacing the regular holo.
I have seen some boxes that have only one Crystal holo and some have two crystal holos.
In the case where you have a one Crystal holo box, your chance of pulling a Charizard is 1/6 hence 16.7%; in that same box, your chance of pulling a Gengar holo for example is 11/32 hence 34.4%.
In the case of a box that has two Crystal holos, your chance at a Charizard is 2/6, or 33.3%. That same box has the chance of pulling a Gengar holo for example at 10/32, or 31.3%
Some here said that there are boxes that have three crystals (holo?) because all boxes usually have 3 crystals with one or two being reverses. If 3 Crystal holo is possible in a box, we get something interesting. Chance to pull a Crystal Charizard holo is 50% while chance at a specific holo is 28.1%.
Now we average them up. Let’s say an equal chance (49.5%) of getting a box with one and two Crystal holos and a 1% of getting a box with three holos.
For the holo Crystal Charizard, your chance of pulling one is .495*16.7%+.495*33.3+.01*50% which gives us 25.25%.
For a specific holo, the chance is .495*34.4%+.495*31.3%+.01*28.1% which is 32.8%
Pulling a specific Crystal holo is one in four boxes, pulling a specific holo is one in three boxes. The pull rate of a Crystal holo is lower, but not by much.
One factor is that the card is easy to grade. PSA 10 pop > PSA 9 pop.
It was mentioned because loads of people incorrectly believe crystals are the same pull rate as Gold Stars. Someone posted that exact GS fallacy earlier in the thread.
I did not say that crystals have the same pull rates of gold stars, I said that specifically the Crystal Holo Charizard has the same or close to pull rate of a gold star.
I get what you are saying, but there are a ton of people who lump shinings, crystals and gold stars into one large group. Also, the claim about crystal zard being similar to a gs is still a bit complicated. Even if the odds are similar, which Gold Star is comparable? GS’s have a range in rarity/scarcity.
The interesting aspect for me with Crystal Charizard is that Skyridge is scarce, or apparently scarce, yet the total amount of zards graded, both holo and rev are 612. Where a Rayquaza GS has 271. Even the least scarce organically released Gold Stars (Power Keepers) have a lower pop, almost half.
In fact the Crystal Zard is much worse off in the context of Skyridge being “scarce”. If that scarcity is genuine, which I think everyone agrees is true, the numbers prove that the pull rates are misunderstood.
Really? 1 in 27 for aquapolis, Bull****. Got 0 crystals out of my box.
I don’t think it’s fair to add the Holo and Reverse holo charizards together, they are not the same card and one costs only a fraction of the other one. I totally agree that a Goldstar card per se is rarer than a Crystal card, although this variates strongly between the sets.
My whole point is that if I have a Skyridge booster pack, I have a similar chance of pulling a Crystal Holo Charizard to pulling a Goldstar Charizard from an Ex Dragon Frontiers booster pack. Again, apparently nobody knows the exact pull rates from all these sets. It might also be true that pulling any specific Crystal card from the skyridge set is close to pulling any specific holo card from the set, but this is due the fact that you have 32 holos in the set and 9-10 holos in the box.
@chappo, That is still incorrect. There are 2 gold stars in Dragon Frontiers, so you have a 2:144 to pull Charizard. 6 Crystals in Skyridge, 6:108. Gold Stars 1.38% vs Crystals 5.5%.
Sure if you said pulling only a Charizard vs any Gold star has a similar pull rate, but that is a bit ridiculous. When you have to obscure context that much to make a point, the answer is obvious; Crystal Charizard isn’t as rare as people believe.
I am a little confused about the math, because a Crystal Charizard is obviously a bigger prize than a Crystal Kaputops, just like Charizard ex is better than Mr. Mime ex FRLG, or Charizard gold star over Mew. If there are 3 crystals per box, that’s 1:12 odds of pulling a crystal. There are 6 different crystals in Skyridge so the odds of a crystal Charizard are 1:72. There are one gold stars per two boxes of dragon frontiers so the odds of pulling a Charizard are 1:144. Yes Crystals are less rare but 6:108 makes it seem like Kabutops and Golem are valued just as much as Charizard and Ho-oh.
The Estimated Pull Rates are: Gold Stars: 1:72. Crystal: 1:12-1:18. I have been using 1:18 to be on the safe side.
Not sure what you mean by “bigger prize”. These are cards manufactured with mathematical odds to be sold on shelves nation wide. The emotional value placed on them by collectors is irrelevant to their production or pull rate.
By bigger prize I mean worth more in the market. Charizard has higher demand than Golem. Charizard star has higher demand than Mew. The pull rate is higher, but having 6 different crystals makes it harder to get the Charizard than the pull rate suggests, just like all those exs in FRLG made it harder to get Charizard ex despite higher ex pull rates.
I think we just have different ways of thinking. From my perspective the pull rate of Lugia Neo Genesis is not 1:3, it’s 1:57 because there are 19 holos. Therefore it’s still quite rare even with a high pull rate.
I mean this in the nicest way possible, pull rates aren’t a way of thinking, they are math. Conflating emotionally value for one card over another doesn’t alter its pre-determined mathematical pull rate.