I agree with your points, though in the case of the stamp promos even they have inflated. The stamp PSA 10 Pikachu has doubled since Jan 1st — it’s gone from 500 to 1000.
I realize that isn’t the same meteoric pace we’re seeing in other segments of the market, but historically it’s still pretty significant for a doubling in 4-5 months.
I suppose that raises the question then about how fast must an increase occur to be considered bubble driven? It’s not clear to me that we have any metrics, and I guess we’ll only know in hindsight.
I was going by memory without checking and it seems you’re right. Maybe not an ideal example. But the Cramorant in particular still seems extremely good value purchase.
I’ve been in the hobby since 2017. My biggest regret has been buying PSA 9’s because they were always much better value. Had I spent that same money on PSA 10’s, my collection would probably be worth 10 times as much. It just makes no sense though. It made no sense then and it still makes no sense now.
yes the higher grades go up in value exponentially rather than linearly which would make more sense logically, seems to be the same in all collectibles (e.g., 9.6 vs 9.8 grade comic book)
here is one over 4x as much the numerical grade is not even different and its fixed price vs auction
This is still pointing to individual examples though, whereas the market is much bigger than that, and in fact much bigger than the WOTC era as a whole. What 2020 brought was a massive distension in both the supply and demand for ultramodern, which constitutes the majority and most accessible position with the PTCG market. The bubble we saw within English WOTC during the 2020 mania mainly affected set chase cards and some of the rarer promos and trophies. All English WOTC cards grew in price, but not in an explosive way that would result in an inevitable crash. Most cards grew in price simply because there were (are) far, far more people and therefore money in the hahbee. The segments containing bubble-like activity (which I would define in this case as a rapid and significant increase in price followed by an equally rapid decrease after a relatively short period) were still isolate-able categories that attracted heavy speculation from investors and flippers, such as 1st edition Base holos and even some Japanese trophies like the Master’s Scroll. What can skew the perception of actual % of the market these categories actually take up is the sheer amount of attention they garner versus the the contents of the rest of the market. The whole market shifted upwards, but the majority of cards and products didn’t face an explosive crash afterwards that would have been symptomatic of a bubble. I think it’s just an easy phrase to throw around when we see these cycles occur every ~4 years and there’s a tendency for some people to use it as a coping mechanism for the inevitable paradigm shifts the hahbee faces every once in a while.
How does it make sense? If a PSA 9 is £100 and a PSA 10 is say £300, then when the 10 reaches £3000 (10x), I would expect the 9 to be £1000 (10x).
Yet in this market, when the PSA 10 goes up in value by 10x, the PSA 9 will only 2x. PSA 10’s are great and all but I dont understand why the value difference as a percentage keeps widening.
I think the base set art is very good and enjoyable actually. I think the aesthetic of the card in general captures the unique look of that era. Theyre like time capsules. And theyre historic. Idk why people seem to dislike base so much man, even if you dont care about the context (which seems kinda weird to me) the art is still interesting, unique and honestly just a joy to look at
Like walking into a Burger King in 2021, Base just became the “cool thing” to hate on for newer collectors. The art is a very easy target to dump on since it appears simplistic and is primarily composed of stock Sugimori art and backgrounds and dated CGI. In comparison, modern is filled with flashy artwork from a variety of different artists. How could Base ever compete?
Ignoring the historical context (which is also important), the simplistic Sugimori watercolor arts have a certain charm that is often lost with the garish and overcrowded compositions in today’s full arts. Something can also be said about the lack of set cohesion and theming with the massive, Frankenstein English releases we get now. The individual art in today’s sets are great, but together they’re just like a college art gallery with no rhyme or reason for their inclusion. In comparison, the smaller number of artists working on Base and other wotc sets brings some much needed stylistic cohesion. It’s not a terribly high bar to clear, but it makes you realize just how wrong TPC has gotten things with the artistic direction of modern set releases.
I feel Base will always remain popular with older collectors and those who have an appreciation for the TCG’s history. The current card prices and demand reflects that.
When I was a kid, I didn’t collect Pokémon cards even though I loved Pokémon (I was around 10) and I loved collecting things like coins, stamps, and phone cards. I just thought the cards were really bad and didn’t give justice to the anime and to the game. The Base Set Pokémon floating in space holo, with no context or action, felt so uninspired to me. And don’t get me wrong, I love Sugimori art and many of his original art are amazing. Tidaldream was showing the Base Set Mewtwo just above, and it perfectly represents everything I didn’t like about those cards, and still don’t. To me, among all the holos in that set, only Charizard stands out as interesting (and probably ninetales).
It looked like Logan said he has 2 base 1st boxes @ about the 6min mark. At one point he had 6. He also mentioned that he opened 2 in a row that didn’t have Charizards. IIRC both boxes he opened on stream had Charizards in them. I wonder if this dude is ripping 200k+ boxes by himself for fun
