These low pop set cards, particularly in sets that are either: 1) not popular (neo discovery); 2) outshined by more popular pokemon (neo genesis); are actually tough to sell.
Nobody really wants to shell out 10k for a mid tier pokemon because its low pop and the set collector would rather wait for an auction to appear (and i agree with them).
Its only when set collectors become desperate (in a boom) they offer big bucks privately.
The issue with “low pop” PSA 10s (or the highest grade at another company) is that the PSA 10 grade has a standard deviation of acceptable condition that overlaps with the the standard deviation of PSA 9 condition (or the second-highest grade at another company). Most PSA 9s are cards that, if you cracked and re-submitted them, would have a non-negligible probability of getting a PSA 10 such that, if the PSA 10 reaches a certain threshold, it becomes positive EV + not unrealistic to crack and resubmit PSA 9s in hope of upgrading.
Someone else mentioned Emerald Milotic ex. I think what happened with that card was the PSA 10 price got so out of sync with the PSA 9 price that the EV on regrading a PSA 9 became positive, leading to a buyout of PSA 9s, a subsequent rapid increase in the PSA 10 pop, an associated rapid decrease in the PSA 10 and PSA 9 values. Anyone that was actively buying exs at that time will probably remember. The PSA 10 Milotic sales were publicized in the PSA 10 ex thread, and economic incentives took care of the rest.
The best empirical evidence of this is that Milotic ex PSA 9 is, to my knowledge, the only PSA 9 ex that’s not currently within 10% of its all-time peak value. Now that it’s no longer positive EV to crack and resub PSA 9s, the market supply has totally recovered and is now comparable to that of other exs.
It probably goes against my interests to say this bc I personally collect CGC 10s (gem mint and pristine, both of which have the exact same issue as PSA 10s–albeit typically demanding a much smaller premium, which is part of what attracted me to them in the first place), but purely from a “value” perspective the best purchase is a strong 9, IMO.
well the other other issue is that the multiplier of cards like heracross, yanma, etc between psa 9 and 10 is craaazy like 10-20x in price. they are essentially worthless in psa 9. vs something like skyridge charizard whats that multiplier like 2-2.5x maybe 3x max 
Yeah those are in that ubiquitous flaw category of low pop cards where the most of the 10s that exist are (allegedly) just misgrades. It’s funny, too, because AFAIK the print line issue of Neo Genesis/Discovery holos isn’t exclusive to Heracross/Yanma/T17/etc–it’s just that those are the ones where the print line is most obvious and so least likely to slip through and get a 10.
What made the Milotic kinda unique is that there isn’t one particular condition issue that was keeping the pop down. So the regrade opportunity was much more viable than it would be for those super low pop Neo holos.
Hype is a powerful force, and I honestly don’t know what will tame it regarding our hobby. And then there is a stary-eyed dreamer born every minute. 
Some will get burned, many won’t care, but I personally don’t see the momentum carrying it through the 30th anniv. Maybe there are enough hopeless idealists to carry it TO the 30th, clinging onto the possibility, but I think I see the hype starting to wear thin. 
As for vintage, what’s intersting to me is the K shaped growth, unlike what happened in 2021, as right now, the performance of common 10s is disproportionate to that of common 9s. It seems that there’s a lot of speculation going on with lower tier 10s that are more accessible but it could also be a strong showing from collectors, simply valuing that higher grade. It is historically inconsistent however, so the prices have to balance at some point. Will 9s rocket to meet them, or will 10s fall back down? 
IMO We have peaked and the 30th will not have an effect. There will be hype around the set sure but nowhere near the amount of costco fights, scalping bots, instant 200% ROI on anything msrp, 300$ bb preorders, etc.
Market peaks trickles down to different eras. The peak of swsh era was feb with alt art spike. SV same time with buyouts and IR spikes. People take that money then go to vintage, which we see now with sky high gold stars, shinings, 400$ psa 10 jungle eevees, e-readers, etc. Once people churn vintage it will go back to modern and cycle repeats. bottom line we have peaked and pokemon will print new sets to oblivion and 120 bb on release is in the future
Its like im living in de ja vu of 30th anniversary doing something for prices.
I remember the 25th was the next catalyst and some poor guy bought a few vintage booster boxes off me with this as his justification. Hes only just breaking even/in profit with current prices
There’s a mass delusion that the anniversaries matter to the market and I just don’t buy it
It will all depend on how good the newest generation game is. The market always needs an external catalyst.
I learned this the hard way. There’s some low pop vintage PSA 10 cards of undesirable Pokemon that retraced after their 2020/2021 highs and just stayed low despite being the hardest cards to grade in their respective sets.
On the other hand, if the pop is single or low double digits then yeah, someone will probably shell out 5 figures for a route 2 bug.
We may also be seeing a return to normalcy in interest. Certain cards like those ROute 2 bugs got bumped with everything in 2021, but the speculation carried them forward till now, while genuine interest wasn’t there… Maybe?
I forgot about costco fights… I have to wonder if other societal forces are at play in that department. I mean, it’s freakin cardboard and barrel-scrapings profit/savings. Are there really THAT many overly-agressive ego-tied collectors that they have to assert their dominance rather than spend +20 bucks in the scalper market? I don’t buy that retail rumbles are a result of hype. We’ve seen fights at black Friday, pre-release for years and years. The number of fights, perhaps, as that’s expected to scale with the number of people, but fights in general are b/c of something else…
A 12-month horizon isn’t particularly interesting.
Currently, we aren’t seeing anything to suggest that market slowdowns are inconsistent with the usual seasonal cycle.
The next predictable boom, while not necessarily the next or only boom we are likely to see, is probably the Inheritance Boom (in 10+ years). I’ve said it before, and unless life-extension technology intervenes (which I sincerely hope it does, as I’d much rather have my parents), this still seems the most likely scenario.
The Inheritance Boom
The first major generation of collectors (Millennials) will enter their peak earning years (50s–60s). At this stage, major life expenses like mortgages will be reduced or paid off, and many will also receive inheritances. This is projected to unleash a significant wave of capital into the market.
The motivation will be less about investment and more about fulfilling a lifelong dream of owning the ultimate pieces of their childhood. These collectors will be less interested in poor-quality collectables, as they want to be reminded of their favourite memories, not of how much time has passed, and how many creases they too have.
That’s a while into the future though.
On the subject of mass delusions about the anniversaries, if the mainstream believes it then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy which will provide that market outcome.
It’s interesting, though, because it’s totally item-dependent. Like, I remember Base Unlimited boxes peaking at >$35k during the Logan Paul-fueled hype. And even after recovering a lot, they’re still like >30% under the peak lol.
But at the same time, every EX box is worth at >50% more than peak COVID-era price (except for maybe Deoxys). Same deal with e-Series boxes. And anything after EX series is even nuttier.
Almost all of the items that experienced a hype-fueled frenzy during COVID retraced dramatically and have barely recovered.
My prediction: I’d bet on the inverse-r/pokeinvesting index + retraces on the items that went up by unusually high amounts for seemingly no reason:
). I love those cards dearly, but no one cared about them until randomly like 4 months ago. Still incredible value relative to modern, but that doesn’t really mean anything because modern cards are egregiously overvalued.I don’t think it’s as counterintuitive as it seems.
The way I see it, the phenomenon you’re describing makes perfect sense if you think of Base Set as the “main event” that brought everyone to the party.
During the Logan Paul frenzy, the entire world’s attention was laser-focused on one thing: Base Set. It was the face of the boom. Newcomers, investors, and returning fans all flooded in with one goal, causing that astronomical $35k peak. It was the ultimate, nostalgia-fueled attractor.
But that level of singular focus was never sustainable. What happened next wasn’t that the interest (or the money) simply vanished; it dispersed. Base Set, Jungle, and Fossil acted as the gateway. People came into the market for the Charizard they remembered from the playground, but once they were in, they started to look around.
This created a wave of “educated collectors.” A person who spent time learning everything about Base Set soon discovered things like:
Scarcity: “Wait, they printed millions of Base Set cards, but the print run for a set like EX Team Rocket Returns or Skyridge was a tiny fraction of that?”
They discovered Gold Stars, shinings, and the incredible artwork of the e-Series and EX eras. These sets offered something fresh that Base Set, for all its iconic status, couldn’t match.
In terms of Value Proposition, the capital followed the interest. Why keep money in a Base Set box that everyone is chasing when you could redirect that into other, rarer EX-era boxes that were, at the time, comparatively undervalued?
So, the interest and capital that initially pooled in Base Set began to flow outwards into these other areas. The demand for EX and e-Series boxes isn’t just “hype”, it’s driven by a now much larger collector base that has learned about their genuine rarity and appeal.
It was impossible for Base Set to maintain that fever-pitch interest. It has now settled into its new role: the universally recognised, blue-chip icon of the hobby. Its market has found a new floor, which is still astronomically higher than its pre-COVID value. The initial boom wasn’t a bubble that simply popped—it was a catalyst that permanently enlarged the entire vintage market, pushing the most dedicated collectors and capital toward other scarce items.
We have seen most old sealed product increase in value and that’s natural given the amount of interest in the hobby now, vs back then.
Whatnot was not around for the 25th anniversary, so I’m willing to bet the demand Whatnot contributes for 30th anniversary will surprise us all.
Ps I don’t like Whatnot just an observation
The only thing is the people from Logan’s pump did not discover gold stars ex and other low pop things.
They had their base set pump then they left. And we had 3-4 years of relative stability and retracement.
The new crowd isn’t here because of Logan and there not here because they’ve moved on organically after being introduced to base. If they did it took them a super long time and they all coincidentally decided to look beyond base at the exact same time 4 years later (doubt)
The new crowd is here because Pokemon is worth ridiculous money and literally anything you buy can be worth more in a week. Pokemons a huge IP with a ton of fans so maybe it’ll last like this for a long time.
I just see a lot of people (not necessarily you) claiming this is all organic growth and for whatever reason ignoring the literally millions of people who are here just for their free money
And it really is free money like I’ve never seen before. Almost comical
Great point here. Because of this, everyone who’s engaged with the market right now thinks they’re a Pokemon genius and anything they buy will be worth more later on. The amount of new “collectors” I’ve seen dunking on people for simply discussing the idea of risk or that things might go down is insane.
It’s a dangerous mentality and it’s not sustainable long term.
I could see the argument that pokemon pocket got people involved in modern and they’ve slowly moved into other eras. That’s about as organic and positive Penelope as I’m willing to be rn.
That timeline makes sense, but the claim that Logan brought people into base who decided to pump the other eras after 4 years of Logan not being into pokemon seems pretty baseless.
I still think it’s just the money though. Money is a lot more beautiful to most than an alt art
I was thinking of posting this but never got around to it, since this is a market discussion thread ill drop it here..
I got a notification from ebay a few weeks a go that they started doing there own version of whatnot with “ebay live”, i tuned in for the first one that pinged me and saw an ETB promo sell for double the price (£35) of the hundred that was already listed as BIN’s on eBay itself (£15)
Shortly before that a Japanese NM Neo Destiny Scizor came up and it went for cheap (£10) compared to what was available on ebay at the time (more than double that)
Was pretty baffling to watch. 
I am not used to whatnot/similar style auctions so not sure if this is just normal behaviour or speaks to the current market a little.
eBay live has been around for years. And yes live selling can get more than regular market.
