I like it. Please everyone always be brutal with me I don’t mind one bit and actually prefer it.
Kinky.
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Ha always 
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Haven’t you been on the pokemon reddit? 
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It’s dependent on the demand of wotc collectors at the time. Hopefully less broke asses then today (they really let wotc go). wotc will continue to compete with the lovely new art cards Pokemon keep releasing, amazing.
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I’ve been feeling the same. I’ve mostly burned myself out of a lot of the financial discussion/analytics with Pokemon and most TCGs in general and I’m at a point lately I just enjoy the cards as-is without getting too caught up in stuff.
This is also why I’ve really been enjoying the 25th Anniversary Yu-Gi-Oh boxes that came out recently. Very affordable, feels organic and fun, no hype really. It was the first time in a while I just had fun opening up a booster box aside from the recent Pokemon 151 set (which is also awesome).
It’s definitely good I think to actually appreciate your collection from time to time and I think anyone who makes money the higher focus will lose sight of things and get burned out sooner than later.
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Yugioh 25th anniversary boxes are so much fun
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What does leave the market mean here?
Second that. The SWSH era cards would become vintage, while the current vintage pre-SWSH era cards would become antique. Both ENG and JPN cards prosper together. What a bright, exciting future! Can’t wait.
I’m very curious why people think ultra modern will be different than any other collectible in history and increase in price forever with no scarcity or organic collectability?
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Often, during consolidation phases, overall market saturation and negative consumer sentiment puts downward price pressure on the market as a whole. Cards that have strong fundamentals aren’t always immune as consumer confidence starts to falter and people decide to sell more aggressively, but that’s where established collectors and businesses find opportunities to “buy low” and eventually “sell high” if/when the trend reverses. It might take awhile to establish price floors, but usually the cards with actual rarity, scarcity, condition, history, and popularity get purchased at/near these price floors and effectively “leave the market” . . . at least until price increases entice those buyers to become sellers.
The cards I’m talking about (strong fundamentals) generally have a relatively modest amount of copies on the market at any given time, so it doesn’t take much market activity (purchases), for those cards to be consolidated into collections, once prices reach a certain point and buyers (collectors or speculators) find potential value. I think this is one of the fundamental differences with ultra-modern cards . . . even the most highly sought after ultra-modern cards are printed in such high volume, that there will always be 100’s of copies on the market. That’s not to say that they won’t also find a reasonable price floor for buyers, but it also suggests a significantly lower price ceiling. Ultra-modern singles are probably near the peak of their popularity shortly after release (recency bias) before being overshadowed by subsequent sets’ chase cards. Already, some have graded populations that are astronomically high and only a small fraction of sealed product has even been opened to unearth them. Those populations could easily 5-10X in ten years while overall demand for them could just as easily decrease.
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Like any other market, a series of boom and busts, around an upward sloping (hopefully) trendline
Cycles.
More engagement → Less engagement → Stability → Repeat
Right now, I hope for stability more than anything. It’s exhausting trying to keep up with the flavor of the week.
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… 
well.
We tolerate everyone here, but if modern pumpers tried to run “the founders” out (let’s call them what they are) they’d be run out themselves, faster than you can say “base set”. 
As for PkMn vs MtG, there are some fundamental differences, such as the driving force behind secondary market (play vs collect), proportions of collector base vs player base, and the process of releases in the early days. There are others. Comparing the two is not a good general metric for the hobbies in general. There may be cards that track for various reasons, but the simple fact that playable magic cards took a noticeable loss during covid while pokemon (especially vintage) only grew, and many have since retained that lead, speaks volumes of the differences.
I think if the dedicated “Gen Wunners”, “vintage lovers” here on E4 seem quiet, it’s just because we don’t feel the need to engage. The data speaks for itself, and if there’s a true discussion to be had we have it.
Sorry if I hurt feelings right here, but Modern is not a discussion, so much as a sharing of theories. There is so little to base a discussion on, that it’s hard to go deep.
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The more i think of it the more i have a feeling that modern will have the same fate as 90s sports cards, it’s super popular atm but when the hype eventually calms down the print amounts become reality and we are flooded with these cards that less and less people want. I believe we are living the junk era of pokemon as a whole, no matter how great the card arts are nowdays since the amounts of even the chase cards printed are just so massive, no idea tho how long it’ll take until it’s reality since it’s still going so strong
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Technically both the Tyranitar and Moltres you’re referring to are higher than where they started.
I don’t mean the first sales out of the gate prices, but the following few months.
That surge at the end of last year hasn’t yet evaporated. It will be interesting to see how they fare once the whole block rotates out at the start of next year which should kill any remaining rumours of reprints or actual reprints if they don’t come before then.
The other thing to remind people is that even though there were 9.6b cards printed or whatever the number is, the pull rates for SWSH were truly awful so there aren’t 1m of each card or even 500k of each chase card around. Reminder that if you take 1/11 or 36/396 - that’s the total amount of “rare” cards in the set - excluding those in the RH slot. And that’s before accounting for energy bricks in ETBs, pre-made decks and promo cards.
If we ignore all those others, then 9.09% of the 9.6b are cards in the rare slot. That accounts for non-holo rares, holo rares, Vs, VMAX/VSTARs, full art Vs & trainers, alt art Vs, rainbow VMAX/VSTAR & trainers, alt art VMAX, gold Pokemon, trainers and energies. Not going to break it down further, but clearly we all know that most of those 36 cards per booster box are non-holo rares & holos. You get my point.
There’s been a lot printed, but people don’t seem to be breaking down those numbers.
SV era is a whole other discussion though.
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Either you’re blatantly cherry picking data or you are not aware that reserved list mtg has doubled in price since Covid (even at ~20% down from its peak). It’s really not that different. But only seasoned collectors in both would know that.
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So, using that math, there are 900 million cards in the rare spot in 2022 alone. Let’s say that 90% are non holo rare, regular rare, vmax etc That leaves 90 million chase cards. Let’s say 1% of those are the REAL hits. That’s still 900,000. And they all grade 9 or 10. No matter how you try to massage the numbers it’s a silly large amount.
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I somewhat agree with your thinking, but the numbers don’t factor in a lot of factors.
The real hits rather have a pull rate of around 0,5 - 0.05%. Which already reduces the number to either 450.000 or 45.000 real hits. And those are the cards that determine the value of a set. I also read of probabilities around 0.04%-0.01%. Since we don’t know, we could also calculate with these factors.
And by far, not all hits grade a 9 or a10. Taking Giratina Alt and Moonbreon as reference. Around 87% of the cards submitted graded 9 or 10. This already reduces The number to 391.500/39.150. Then you also have to factor on the cards that get dented, destroyed, lost in one or another way.
I don’t disagree that there are more chase cards out, there, but the numbers you took were far from realistic. I mean, even mine have a great variance since I did not full determine what a hit really means. If it’s just the probability or the price.
That’s true, but the PSA population for Umbreon VMAX Alt Art is already around 10,000, while the 1st Edition Umbreon from Neo Discovery is less than 1,000 . . . over 20 years later. Moreover, Moonbreon has an 82% chance to grade a 10 (7316 copies) while Neo Umbreon has a 17% chance (95 copies).
In 5-10 years, I think it’s reasonable to assume the populations of Moonbreon could 5-10X from where they are now. That’s a lot supply to absorb into an already saturated market . . . especially if demand moves on to new hype products/cards.
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This is why I’ve shifted focus a lot more to modern Japanese. The supply side is less whacky to me for a lot of cards. Like Eevee Heroes booster boxes for example actually feel worth it to me compared to Evolving Skies if I was going to invest in 1 or the other. I also see the chase cards for sale way less than Evolving Skies, both raw and graded.
I also like Evolving Skies, but the supply as well as other modern English is definitely high and I can’t see the demand ever absorbing it all fully. Also, what might be a Trainer Gallery card in English can at times be a SR or CSR in Japanese and much harder to pull. I like cards like this too.
Overall, I have found more stability in Japanese than English so far.
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