What do you mean by modern has not much room to go up? Isn’t that what has been constantly happening for the past years?
Also the sports cards comparison is a bit off because the cards back then didn’t really sell and the market was oversaturated. Where in this situation a lot of cards are printed yes, but they all sell and the demand is still greater than the supply.
And why should a box that has been out of print tank all of a sudden? So for modern sets to tank( taking out the ones that were extremely hyped and manipulated) it would make no sense. I just think they won’t Increase in value as much as BW/SM with lower print runs.
WotC has a solid foundational place. Sitting back sipping iced tea while everything else runs around frantically. What well be interesting is to see where society and the collectors are in 10-20 years.
Since I work with kids and have for 20 years, I’ve seen a big shift with this newest generation. The youngest generation is less emotionally tempered on average than older ones were as kids. They are more engaged, (which is great) but also more volatile (up and down) possibly because of how they interact socially with the internet today?
Many of my students are level headed thinkers, however, the internet changes how and what we see of the world and social influences, so I’m worried there will always be a more volatile element of the collector base. Still, who knows. They could grow up rather quickly as society comes together to solve problems, and they realize problems are not solved on sensationalized social media, but in real life. Hoipefully social media dies away as it continues to be shown as the cause for spread of misinformation, bad health advice, and rubbish.
My crystal balls don’t seem to be any better than anyone else’s…
What will be seen is whether modern can hold.
We’re already seeing over just the last couple years, drops in what were the most coveted cards out of the gate. Perhaps not graded copies, but when I look at what has staying power, I see these magnificent full arts getting forgotten to some degree. It will be interesting to see if fresh collectors now keep an eye on the old set chase cards, with so many being out around the same time. I’m not talking moonbreon or full art waifus but other great full arts like lunch-break-Tyranitar or forest-moon-moltres. Will people still covet these enough to maintain prices, or will they keep dropping? Will this reflect in all full and alt arts as newer ones come out? I think so.
Just think of the kids today, so influenced by youtube, IG, etc. They want to collect what they see and they still see WOTC as the people making the videos do. As long as the “Gen 1” group shouts WOTC they will come to love it too! Doesn’t take much more demand to send things up, and they will have the money by then. The key timeframe for me is when our generation is older, retired, and possibly ready to cash out. Hopefully the Hobby has 3x’d by then with the new generations coming in, but who buys all of our stuff when we’re all trying to retire and sell at the same time.
Agree with that! I wonder though, will pokemon “thin out” like sports? There just so many cards that only the select few of each era stands out above the rest. You think pokemon will become that? Will the only cards to REALLY stand out in WOTC era be the Base set starters, shining’s, etc… I feel like were already seeing that with the OG EX era. So many undervalued cards in theory, but the nostalgia isn’t quite there and there’s a sea of other things to choose from. Imagine the Pokemon library in 20 years!
Yeah. I do wonder about that. Charizard will be a popular one. Blastoise should be too. Pikachu. Gengar. Alakazam just got a rare candy. But how many others…?
Exactly. I think people underestimate how much can change over time with the economics of everything. I remember when I was a kid and seeing certain MTG cards selling for $100s or $1000s and I thought it was insane because most of my cards I was buying were like 10 or 25 cents. I still have memories of Alpha Black Lotus being $2500 and now it’s like $75K+ in NM condition.
I feel we look at the prices of some WOTC/vintage cards today and think they’re maybe overpriced or won’t go higher, but in reality in the long-term so much more could change yet. Obviously nothing is guarenteed, but I have just seen so much happen with collectibles and other investments the longer time goes on that my gut feeling is the growth will occur again at some point that will make past bubbles/declines look like buying opportunities in the grand scheme of things.
As a sealed collector, I think things will slowly continue to go up and then eventually accelerate more rapidly for the oldest products. I have seen it with things like Base set Japanese PSA 10 sealed going from $450 to $1000 in just a year or two. Grading standards change and fewer boxes get opened while streamers rip pre-purchased boxes.
As more information is aggregated and easily digestible, people gain interest into the origins of something they grow up with. People who grew up with OG Pokemon now have free income seeking investment and it either goes into stocks, businesses, or into assets. The amount of people I see that currently say they want but can’t afford a single vintage sealed pack is huge. I think as people age into larger incomes, inflation continues, dollar devalues, etc the prices will continue to rise. It has been almost 25 years with the same logos, the same characters and interest is continuing to grow.
Modern and random chase characters have definitely taken over the market recently because of get rich quick FOMO but that is unsustainable for most and they will end up trading amongst themselves. It’s like fine art. Is it really a good investment to buy a card for $5,000 that has 1,000 PSA 10’s? Or is it better to have a pop 1/2 of an unrecognized pack/card. Time will tell. I think the biggest gains will be in the packs/cards people are not currently interested in and have history behind them to the right buyer.
I’ve seen so many Sports cards collapse compared to Pokemon. The growth on a lot of them during the Covid cycle was totally fake it seems, especially modern. I think some people are carrying some very heavy bags in Sports. Obviously there’s some exceptions, but some I’ve followed are easily down 90%+ at this point and seem unlikely to go back to the highs any time soon or if ever. I’ve been seeing steady upticks in a lot modern Pokemon in comparison, even during this more depressed market we’ve been in the past couple years because of inflation/interest rate pressure and other factors. I am way more comfortable buying Pokemon, I find it more fun.
Honestly, this is not the place to ask. The majority here are modern-chads attempting pump their own bags. The covid collectors have overtaken this community like many others. Best way to answer this question is to look at mtg. It’s the only other tcg that can give us a good reference on how the cycle goes. I’d suggest talking to an oldschool mtg/pokemon collector that has seen these cycles over and over. Because if they post their opinion here, the modern pumpers will run them out.
Is this sarcasm? Unless you are referring to another place and I missed it, there isn’t a platform in pokemon that has more knowledge & experience than E4.
As for the overall topic, obviously pokemon is fine and will do well for the foreseeable future. But I honestly wouldn’t mind if it dramatically declined at some point. I miss the days when people just enjoyed cards and didn’t hyper fixate on how much money it will make them next month.
but other great full arts like lunch-break-Tyranitar or forest-moon-moltres. Will people still covet these enough to maintain prices, or will they keep dropping? Will this reflect in all full and alt arts as newer ones come out? I think so.
