I had a thought and wanted some opinions.
Do you think in 5-10 years vintage Pokémon will be out of reach for most collectors just like how vintage mtg is right now?
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Definitely not. 1st Edition prints will continue to be a high end alternative but I’m pretty confident that Gen 1 WotC unlimited will always be accessible in our lifetimes. The volume is just so tremendous.
Gen 2 WotC (Neo through Skyridge) will definitely be a higher barrier of acquisition but I don’t think the circumstances of early Pokémon and Alpha Magic are similar enough to ever produce comparable market prices
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Probably harder for newer collectors, but I feel it’s all relative to some degree. If we look in the past, certain cards that were expensive 5 or 10 years ago would look “cheap” relative to today. Pokemon collectors are still pretty young on average, and our incomes/spending power are no where near peaking yet for the most part.
I think it will come down to certain cards & grades as well as a lot of vintage Pokemon is a much higher supply than early MTG sets. The sets are smaller, and theres simply more of each card available than many older bigger MTG sets. However, one could also argue the demand for a lot vintage Pokemon will eat up the larger supply, so that could also be worth factoring in as time goes on.
Right now for a lot of sets, collecting PSA 10s for example (especially holos) is an extremely expensive way to go. However, you can still find a lot of the holos in NM or so range for a much lower price, so you have many options and ways of collecting vintage Pokemon right now and for the foreseeable future. Compared to vintage MTG, you will have a very tough time building a NM Alpha or Beta set at this point, and some cards are nearly impossible to even find in NM condition as the supply in NM or better condition is just so low for a lot of cards.
I think it will take many years for the NM stuff to become super expensive/unaffordable in Pokemon, if ever. Therefore, I think it’s possible certain cards in higher grades will become completely unaffordable for a large % of collectors, but I don’t think it will stop people from being able to collect lower grade sets in 5 or 10 years from now.
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I’m not sure what “out of reach for most collectors” means. For most people, there will always be items that are out of reach. But there are usually also affordable alternatives. Most MTG collectors can’t afford to build a mint set of Alpha, but most can afford to build a played set of Unlimited.
A PSA 10 1st Ed Base Zard is out of reach for most collectors in 2022, and this will almost certainly still be the case in 2032. But a PSA 7 Unlimited Base Zard is well within the reach of most collectors in 2022, and this will also almost certainly still be the case in 2032.
For some items, of course, there are no suitable alternatives. There’s no real alternative to a Pikachu Illustrator – there’s no inexpensive card that looks similar to it. Similarly, there’s no real alternative to a sealed WotC/EX booster box – there’s no inexpensive box with similar contents.
But for set cards, there will always be affordable options for collectors.
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The shortest way to answer this is most wotc cards are cheaper today than 2 years ago. Pokemon wotc is heavily demand dependent. Vintage MTG, specially abu was more limited. 1st Edition Base & Shadowless is closer to MTG unlimited in quantity. Keep in mind wotc sets post 1st ed base were printed during the 90s mania. My favorite reference is that in 1999 some sport cards didn’t release a set that year because all of the printers were full of pokemon cards.
Also vintage mtg cards are still used in the game today. With that said, if Pokemon did a vintage tcg category, that could move prices. But as it stands, majority of vintage pokemon cards are affordable. Especially in binder condition.
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The type of scarcity that exists in Alpha and Beta is unmatched in early Pokemon sets. For example, there are an estimated 1,100 of each Alpha rare, 3,000 of each Beta rare, and 16,000 of each Unlimited rare. Vintage MTG is extremely hard to come by, and even more so in minty condition. Part of the allure of reserved list cards is that they were (almost) never reprinted, so you would have to spend a fortune to own the original artwork.
https://www.mtginformation.com/print-runs
I don’t think Pokemon will run into the same problem as MTG, because base set artworks have been reprinted so many times (e.g., shadowless, unlimited, base set 2, legendary collection, evolutions, CP6, celebrations). Although reprints are never “the real deal,” they satisfy most collectors who are on a limited budget.
As others have said, there will always be played cards available of 1st Ed Base and other WoTC sets. Those who are “priced out” of minty and/or graded vintage Pokemon will most likely be satisfied with a binder collection of played cards.
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Wcp is probably able to compete with those numbers but 99.99% of pokemon sets (aside from some unl japanese) cant hang with early mtg
Even 1st Ed Base has a higher print run than Alpha or Beta. You can check this by the population reports of graded cards. For example, there are more than 3,500 1st Ed Base Charizards graded through PSA, and that doesn’t account for all of the ungraded copies floating around.
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Sorry what is this in reference to for my post?
I cant remember the last time i mentioned base set -especially base set being rare, 1st or otherwise- on these forums, if ever. I keep my opinion on base set pretty much to myself because i would ruffle too many feathers if I shared it. My post was saying vintage Japanese (if 2007-2010 can be thought of as vintage) has some extremely low print runs for unlimited in a few sets, WCP, L1, L2, L3 and that those sets could hang with the rarity of early MTG. While i know this is about WOTC i had to throw in the tidbit about this era of japanese being rare AF, unlike anything WOTC, skyridge included.
I think you are right about the scarcity of wcp and certain unlimited japanese sets. They just lack demand. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if E4 accounts for half of the wcp market.
What is WCP?
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I get emails from Japanese sites with saved searches daily hoping some of those unlimited (and one 1st edition) cards pop up.
Only use Facebook for dumping cheap slabs to avoid eBay fees. It is pretty useless for rare cards, no one is ever selling or even looking for that era.
World Champions Pack. Think it was around 07/08.
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Sure, but it only takes 2 people buying and 1 person selling to make a market go f**kin ballistic
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When an unlimited reverse holo prime ttar pops up come my way
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5-10 years is sooooooo soon. I honestly don’t think prices will go too much higher/lower in 5-10 years for most vintage cards.
I didn’t know what you meant by WCP. I thought you were saying Wizards of the Coast Pokemon. 
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