So, I bought this Steelix First Edition PSA 10 (Neo Genesis) for under 400 dollar. I bought the card because it is somewhat of a nostalgic card to me, and I absolutely love Neo. And, the price just feels wrong.
To me (and I guess a lot of collectors) everything up to the Neo sets is the real vintage, with the Neo cards pretty much perfecting that oldschool template. Everything after that is, well, different. Don´t get me wrong, I love everything from E-series to Surging Sparks but it isn´t (as) nostalgic.
However, the price of this specific card got me thinking. Is Base-Neo extremely underpriced? It´s a POP 250 card (PSA 10). That used to be something, but in today´s market where POP´s of most cards that have any appeal at all have POP´s of 1000 or more (if not 10.000) that is next to nothing.
Now, I get it, most of the new influx of fans are looking at modern, so the Moonbreon, for instance, has a lot more demand. But at least some of them (and probably more than some) also appreciate the basics. In addition to this, for the loyal fan-base of the early days these cards will always be a bit extra.
I´d love to hear your thoughts. Pictured below is the card that probably inspired me (my brother pulled it in '01.)
It’s not really underpriced in my opinion, most of vintage is pretty optimized. Look at Lugia and Typhlosion prices. I think the 1st ed psa 10 Steelix is so cheap because it’s not a popular pokemon or sought-after card specifically. If you look at base set 1st edition magmar you would think “wow these prices are great” but then if you look at the popular cards like Charizard or Blastoise, you will see a different story. I’m sure the card you got will increase in value in the future, but I doubt Neo Genesis as a whole will see some 5X price jump while the rest of the hobby increases at a steady rate. That’s just my POV
There is a lot to the topic of early WOTC English cards. A lot (most?) are still trying to correct themselves and find a stable footing after the COVID pumps. I mention this a lot but that growth was ridiculous and quite abrupt. In the near term the settling of prices as we have seen recently does appear attractive and can be also seen as a good deal but I suspect the prices will be relatively steady for a while. A couple years at least.
I do still think growth will come for vintage set cards again, and I know you weren’t suggesting a COVID level stonk or timeframe but it’s important to remember why we think the prices now are “steals”
It’s just because the last couple of years were crazy out of wack. 1st Ed stamps to represent a distinct and widely loved era of Pokemon. This era was some of the heaviest pump during covid. It’s a clearly vintage era that anyone can see. They’re some of the safest and time tested English cards imo. This to me seems like a decent time to buy. We may not see COVID levels of prices but there is COVID levels of hobby engagement and these people will eventually notice the older cards once the modern hype dies down. It’s usually a decent idea to do the opposite of the hype in this hobby because fundamentals always overtake hype with enough time
Pretty much my opinion as well. I think these cards were undervalued for a long time, and then were overvalued for a short time. I do think the correction on some of them was too much though. I see PSA (or another reputable grading lable) 10´s, especially first edition, getting more attention again.
I think streamers are the answer. Its why Modern is so popular, and why there is more vintage available than years ago. The latter seems a bit counterintuitive, but more people are opening vintage today, so there is more graded supply than ever.
I was waiting for a thread like this and thought about starting one because I had a similar feeling about the Neo era in general.
I’m not exactly flowing with cash so I’ve been scooping up Neo-era PSA 9 unlimited holos. I feel like they’re severely underpriced. I’m not saying they’ll stonk out, nor do I care about that. I just enjoy collecting what I love. I recently picked up an Entei holo PSA 9 unlimited for slightly over $200. Considering the relatively low pop report, and Entei being a popular pokemon, seems really underpriced compared to PSA 10 premium. I’m not complaining though lol
PSA 9 1st Edition Base Set non-holos, especially the uncommon/common cards, seem pretty well-priced, but only because I know I’d pay twice as much as what a lot of these cards sell for regularly on eBay.
The 1st Edition Base Set is its own separate entity, where it all begin. Every card in Base Set is easily distinguished, has its own significance. It’s an easy bet.
The market for these cards right now seems pretty ripe for buyers who are interested, especially those who plan to hold to their collection long-term.
I feel you. I am the same. I do invest in Pokémoncards but these vintage cards are more for sentiment. If I have the cash I’ll take a PSA 10 (first edition) Neo Holo card for 3 hundred something anyday. If it blows up I would have a hard time parting from it anyway haha.
In the spirit of discussion I’ll offer a counterpoint because the future of 1st Ed English WOTC really does interest me.
I sold all of my non Holo 1st Ed base over the last year or so. If I still had them, I’d probably sell them now as well. Not that I don’t believe in their potential to grow, more so I believe there is so much better vintage to spend money on rn than 1st Ed non Holo wotc.
Pokemon is a fairly unique tcg where we have non holos and commons/uncommons going for extremely high prices relative to their print quantity. Obviously nobody knows the print run numbers but we can make some logical assumptions. People can place different weight on condition and print run numbers too, but for me I decided that I’d rather hold/collect/invest in slightly lower grades of low print-high demand holos than higher print/higher grade non holos
I’m definitely optimistic about WOTC/vintage era cards longer term. I think that right now a lot of Pokemon collectors are still quite young (compared to other hobbies), and Pokemon is kind of a rare multi-generational toy where kids actually returned to it in droves decades later and new people are still entering all the time. This doesn’t happen too often if you look at many other toys and fads that come and go these days. So I still feel that as this generation gets older, more collectors will continue to enter the hobby for nostalgia reasons and to have fun as we move up in career, financial standing, etc.
Then you also have a totally different investment attitude in younger generations. I think a lot of people collecting Pokemon are seeing it as a unique alternative asset, sort of like artwork or cryptos or NFTs. I think this will play into things over time as well. It just keeps getting more serious as the years go by, and many have come to acknowledge that Pokemon must be respected as a valuable brand & hobby.
Aside from this, I just love the WOTC cards. I’ve paid some big prices for some of them, but I don’t regret it. I bought them because I couldn’t get them as a child, and now I can. So regardless of the prices, I’m happy to say I have them at this point.
Right now there’s a pretty big gap between WOTC and Modern the past couple years where they’ve diverged in different directions at times. Modern has been doing better (especially S&M and SWSH era cards), WOTC has largely pulled back a lot since Covid. At the same time, certain sets have still held up strong (1st Ed Base, 1st Ed Neo Rev/Destiny, etc). To me this a great time to start collecting WOTC, people would be dying for these prices in 2020/2021
this is wotc era, and basically was when you get a psa 8 straight outta the pack.
yeah basically all of the non charizard cards seem underpriced, i personally would rather have this stuff than all the high pop moderns and almost every (non charizard) holo is less than a moonbreon in psa 10
I’m with @jabby on this. Vintage is literally the beginning of the hobby, it’s always going to be sought after, even by those who didn’t grow up with it.
Secondly, and this is what I think matters more: as the collectors who grew up with the vintage era grow older, their income (and disposable income) grows. Kinda like how there are baseball card collectors shelling tens of thousands out for vintage cards from their youths…except, there are already pokemon card collectors shelling out that amount and more for old and current cards. I’m optimistic overall because of this.
True, but at the same time POP numbers have not really gone up that high. Also, because of the streamers Pokémon has more participating people than ever. I think that eventually they should have an uplifting effect.
I think vintage WOTC prices are about right just after the big growth and cooldown, but there are still often bargains to be had. The same goes for sets between 2003 and 2010 with some nice PSA 9 holos out there.
I feel the same as you that first edition neo holos can be a steal given what they are and their pop reports vs modern.
Whilst I do enjoy aspects of modern, I think it some prices (e.g. moonbreon) are completely out of whack for the age and pop report compared to what you could buy for the same price in vintage. I also find it crazy what you can pick up for $2 or $3 from Japan like modern Charizard and Mew Ex cards
