Interesting numbers. I agree with the comparison, but I think 5-10xing is quite unlikely since most cards get graded around the initial release and slowly increase over time. Especially with such a hyped like the moonbreon had it.
But I would really be curious how the pop report of other chase cards from 5–10 years ago developed. Is there a way to check that?
I’ve always said this. I open modern cards for fun and for having that feeling of opening packs and putting them in a binder.
I buy wotc/ex holos cards/slabs so I can have the cards I couldn’t get as a kid back in 1999-2004
In my opinion modern cards might not be able to hold current values due to the amount of cards printed during last few years. Pop reports for certain modern cards are astronomic while prices already really high.
I see WOTC floating around the current prices its been floating for some time, but there’s definitely a growth coming, most of us are around 30 at this time, and there’s several people sub 30 that dont have the money to afford certain cards right now but might do in a couple years when they settle up.
If the market keeps this trend, the safest spot (personal opinion) feels like Sealed booster boxes, or even ETB’s since there’s a lot of people collecting these.
I sold most of my current modern and bought vintge this year, i may or may not have sold them too earlier, but im really happy with the prices i paid for my new vintage cards.
I’m seeing sales for 155 TTar at 85-95$ USD, and sales of the PSA 9 at about the same level. This is significantly lower than the price both at launch and recently after launch which was around 150-200. For moltres, I’m seeing something similar, albeit at about 25-40 USD$ higher. and it was also about 150-200 near launch. cheapest I ever saw there was about 80. I’ve been tracking these for quite some time, as they’re favorites, but haven’t felt comfy buying yet… 
I do find it strange that PSA 9 is about the same cost as raw NM, and that suggests to me that it’s not a sustainable slab value…
I recently claimed somewhere that discussion around Modern does not have a lot of data to base things on, and as such is largely hypothesis. Only time can tell for sure.
Yeah, it’s definitely harder to find clean/ungraded WOTC at times, especially the holos. So you’re almost forced to buy graded if you don’t want something in destroyed condition. At times though it can be fun to hunt them down. Like last year I managed to get a clean ungraded NM 1st Ed Base Zapdos for a bargain price and it was so satisfying to find since I’m trying to complete a 1st Ed Base binder set in EX/NM condition.
Modern though has generally the low barrier of entry, so I can see why it’s so popular and like you say it can be enjoyable for that reason and others.
That’s fair, however, there are still hundreds of raw copies on the market and plenty more product to be opened. A lot can happen in 5-10 years, and I suspect Evolving Skies will be one of the most popular boxes to break by streamers (not too expensive to open, with some big chase cards). I anticipate a steady flow of Moonbreons to enter circulation in the coming years.
Yeah the thing with wotc is that we were kids who played with them. I remember when I got my first cards I didn’t have a binder so my mom gave me a sandwich baggie to put them in and that’s how I brought them to school.
Modern is just me being an adult reliving memories as a kid opening packs lol
Because there is no way I’m paying 300-400 for a base set pack just to open it.
That’s why I love the 25th anniversary Yugioh boxes because you get a whole box just like it was in 2002
Totally agree with the steady flow, but I would rather say 1,5x to 2x instead of 5-10x. Since we already have 10.000 graded.
Okay so let’s use the smallest number even though I find it comically low (there’s literally 0 chance Pokemon is making 45,000 of the top cards available out of 9.6 billion cards printed). And we will use your 87% PSA 10 rate for said cards to eliminate all lower grades.
That number is still higher than all the PSA graded 1st ed base holos in 25 years in all grades.
Exactly. Very few preserved WOTC cards that well. Many were lost, played, destroyed, donated, etc compared to a lot of modern cards. So many stories I read over and over like this. I still have fond memories of finding Pokemon cards in the grass or on the sidewalk when I would leave my school as a child (before they got “banned” in class).
That’s how I enjoy modern as well. For example, the new 151 set is definitely one I’ll be opening and enjoying just like a kid again. Same deal with 25th Yu-Gi-Oh boxes. With both of these I am not concerned at all about where it will end up in price, I just want to own and enjoy them fully as is.
I guess you’d have to quantify what you think is a large amount per chase card.
But once again, I’m not really sure what people are thinking when they say modern will tank/implode whatever because already the majority of cards aren’t worth much.
There are loads of full arts that are $2, rainbows and gold cards mostly below $10.
I couldn’t agree more. I’m also really excited about 151
But yeah no one was saving Pokémon cards because they thought they would be worth something.
Maybe adults who graded them back then, but we were kids who just wanted to show them to our friends
That’s right… and the biggest difference I see now with modern is not only better production quality on the cards compared to a lo of the vintage cards, but also so many are just instantly sleeved or sent off for grading. So it sort of lacks that organic enjoyment that a lot of vintage cards had. None of them are really seeing a normal attrition/wear that the old cards did. I still think that they are collectible, but it’s on a different scale. I think the value with modern is really going to come down to popularity/demand consuming the supply, otherwise the growth/increase in price will most likely not compare to vintage.
But then again who knows for sure. I’ve honestly been blown away at the high prices Umbreon VMAX goes for still after all this time even with the relatively huge supply, so there could be exceptions to all this depending on exactly what it is and regardless of the other factors we often think about when collecting.
That would be interesting. How high is the number of all the PSA graded 1st ed base holos?
And why do you count only 1st ed? Unlimited is also existing.
I appreciate the positive response to me, but I don’t agree with this not being the place. I just assumed long-term collectors wouldn’t speculate as much as newer collectors, but luckily a few came out to share their views. 
IMO, E4 has the most knowledge for Pokemon info. No disrespect, though. I hope you have a great weekend
Pokemon will be dead in 20 years because the superior TCG, Metazoo, will have killed and buried it.
lol remember metazoo 
The amount of info and knowledge in this topic is surreal, thank you so muc Op!
Great explanation! Thank you!
Have seen people who hoard multiple copies of ENG Moonbreon PSA 10s. I’m talking not just two or three slabs, but 20s, 50s, 100s. Not exaggerating. Similar to how fans hoard multiple copies of charizard cards.
Even if there’re thousands of PSA 10s, it still isn’t enough. There’re millions of fans worldwide and among those, many who hoard multiple copies.
Don’t click with metalzoo cards artworks. Not going to collect them. Even if they’re worth more than pokemon cards.