Recently on Instagram I’ve been seeing “high chance at a 10” loose cards be auctioned off twice, if not thrice as the normal value. Is this over saturation of “high chance” cards a low risk, high reward opportunity or is this just another scam more akin to “PSA 10?”
Personally I’m willing to pay near break even after grading on raw cards at PSA 9 prices. I may go over break even if it’s an exceptionally rare card or the PSA 10 pop is super low. I will also go above break even if the PSA 10 is more than 5x the value of a PSA 9. I don’t base my bidding on any seller’s claims of “close to PSA 10” but it may make me take scrutinize the card for a longer period of time, which is a good tactic for the seller.
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Don’t take the seller’s words for it. Use your own judgement on the card. Request more pics if needed. These clickbait titles are just what its made for, clickbait.
I often try to keep it to around PSA 8 breakeven prices. I have two cards coming in from eBay that would breakeven at a PSA 8 but along the lines of your comment, the PSA 10 would be about 3-4x the value of the 8. It’s a fun, exciting, and anxiety inducing rush!
@subbasshead, nice to see you here!
Noticed that aswell, you refering to the 1st edition shining charizard by any chance?
My general rule of thumb for buying mint ungraded cards is that I always pay under the price of a PSA 9.
If the chance on a 10 is really high/the card in a 10 is really expensive and I need it I would sometimes make an exception.
People bidding nearly 1k for a 1st edition shining charizard ungraded is just stupid money in my honest opininon
First off, shameless plug-in, I’m Subasshead on IG; that being said I wholly agree, granted I would like to meet in the middle pay 8-9 value. Even now I’m sitting on a BGS 8 that someone’s trying to sell me for undermarket value knowing that he could go through the trouble of getting it cross graded but doesn’t because he needs the money. That said I do think people should pay extra if it’s from 1. A reputable seller 2. Above market value you ungraded but under market value of a grade with in the projected margin.
Yes, you absolutely pay a premium for a card that is in a better condition, but on your own assessment. That said I pay mostly just over PSA 9 (grading cost included) value and it works well as long as you get a few PSA 10 on the dozen every time around.
This is why I avoid Instagram in general and especially these types of listings when buying cards…
Let me preface this by saying I have no problem paying a premium for mint cards and I do it often. But when people are advertising their cards as “high chance of a 10” or “PSA 10?” you have to be really suspicious. PSA is more accessible than ever these days, if these sellers really think their card is going to get a 10, why don’t they submit it themselves?
Chances are the card really isn’t flawless and they’re exaggerating the card’s condition in order to get a higher sale price. I’d be way more suspicious of a “high chance of a 10” listing than one that just said “mint condition” because there are very few reputable sellers that put that kind of speculation on their cards.
Like what’s been said earlier, request lots of pictures and use your best judgement to determine what grade you think the card would get, and pay accordingly. Assume the seller is trying to deceive you. I usually draw the line around PSA 9 value, unless it’s a card with a huge difference in PSA 9 and PSA 10 like 1st Ed. Charizard or Charizard GS.
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Since the auction of the 1st edition shining charizard on instagram came up, I’ll use that as the basis for the question. First in this case it’s not even the seller asking for a premium, it’s what buyers have been offering. Some sellers come across mint cards pretty often (however they do it) and I know don’t have the time or patience to maybe send cards in for a 50 business day turn around to see some return. Or stuff comes up and they need the money sooner than later, which could be an answer as to why they don’t grade it themselves. This particular card on instagram looks like it is an easy 9 and actually a very possible 10 to be honest. I think the current offer was $910 and there is a PSA 9 on ebay currently for $850. Considering how incredibly difficult it is to come across a card of this caliber nowadays in mint and possibly gem mint condition, I think paying a premium is definitely worth it. Even opening a sealed booster box to try and get this card would be way more expensive and realistically could only get you a 9 as well sometimes. So finding this card on it’s own, in this type of condition, in this current market is pretty rare in my opinion. I would pay the premium and take the risk at a 10. It could get a 9 and I could lose maybe $70. Or it could get a 10 and it could be worth $2000. (maybe drastic, not sure exact price but you get the point). You have to spend money to make money, and if you have to be willing to take calculated risks, if you don’t you could lose out on amazing opportunities.
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To me, its really depends who’s saying this - “high chance at a 10”
If its some no name guy, I wouldn’t believe him and would assume hes saying this just to make a quick buck.
If someone like gemmintpokemon were to say this to me, I would be more inclined to “bid” higher
The last 9 went for $625 though
Yea I’ve sold heaps of gold stars zards all of them ungraded and the owners scored 10. And mew to… Oh mew. Why. Why why.
This statement fourstar would apply to mainly cards with shit photos and no scan. It’s basically like saying noone should buy cards ungraded and should just pay everyone thousands for PSA 10 copies. Ide defonityle advise paying the 1,000 route vs the 1800usd PSA 10 route. With such a perfect photo and card in question.
I most certainly wouldn’t mind paying half the price of a PSA 10 for a gem mint copy and I do it sometimes for sure. The results being I never get a 9 when I take this course of action 
I can see how you could be skeptical though giving you got a gold star English zard for 150 recently which scored a 10 
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I know the guy you’re talking about. He mocks people for paying slightly above market value for mint/gem cards, then spams IG with 9s that “should definitely be 10s.” He’s also known to repost within a day or two complaining about people not buying at his “steal” prices.
I don’t think it’s a scam, just an annoying sales tactic. In the end, it’s the buyer’s choice whether or not to bite.
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I wouldn’t be suprised if he started the whole 2K Krabby “error”. Also where were you man? We at were at Worlds wondering if you’d sniped that Snap Gary or not
it sold for over 1300 dollar
People are willing to pay for opportunity 