WOW. I didn’t even notice that PSA 10 FRLG Charizard ex was worth roughly as much the Burning Shadows Charizard in PSA 10. Those two cards are not even in the same universe rarity-wise (or aesthetically, but that’s subjective – the FRLG Charizard is just infinitely more beautiful, IMO, though my perception here may be partially blinded by nostalgia). Current price aside, I’d rather have one of the former than 10 of the latter. The PSA 10 population of the FRLG is 1/4th of the Burning Shadows one’s pop and it won’t increase nearly as much in coming years because of the rarity and price of sealed FRLG product. That is probably the most blatant example of price incongruity ever; that’s got to be a result of market manipulation? Or people just have very poor sense…
I think it is just a little confusing that the Hidden Fates Charizard, which was released last year, is going for USD 500-700 I believe? For that price, you can get plenty of vintage pokemon cards that are undoubtedly more scarce.
The trouble for me about marketing something as an “investment” is that it isn’t something as simple as buying a bunch of boxes. I agree with @zorloth about MTG, but if you check out Rudy’s channel, he demonstrates how modern MTG sets like RTR can be considered an investment and lays out the cost basis of doing so. He also includes, in other videos, about the risks of selling on ebay, and at what price (his patreon/distributor-level pricing) he would consider boxes to be purchased as an investment. He basically takes you cradle to grave (or through the tacobell drive through). Sure, you won’t see four horsemen levels of profit, but he still explains his methodology.
These pokemon investing channels, however, do not. They don’t touch on reprint cycle (or the risks involved in investing in product that is still currently being printed). What about ebay scams/lost product? Simply put, they paint upside without talking about downside. So, it is kind of like giving one side of the picture. They could be right, but what if they are wrong? It’s fine if an adult is consuming this content with USD 10,000 to punt, for example. But how about kids who aren’t at the right level of maturity to make these decisions?
I think this is a really important point as well. It’s not like modern product is a total dud and won’t grow in price, its that people can’t expect the same amount of growth in their modern product (that is treated as an investment vehicle) as the levels of growth seen in WOTC/EX era product. You just can’t extrapolate it like that.
Lastly, I guess people (myself very much included) have a very poor perception of how much supply is there. Even amongst base set, base unlimited is crazy plentiful. Which is why when PSA 10 base unlimited prices reach all time highs (even if its Charizord) and POP reports are quoted, I think it’s not really reflective of the impending supply of PSA 9/10 base unlimited cards to come. It’s not that they’re rare in particular - it’s just that no one thought it was worth it to grade these cards.
Nonsense. Look at the housing market.
I generally agree with you, but I don’t think Rudy is a particularly credible source of investment advice either lol. He has a vested interest in people feeling confident in the MTG sealed market, given that that’s a significant portion of his ‘portfolio.’ There are so many variables at play that make a set a good or bad ‘investment’ that simply aren’t under his control. Namely: what is the state of the competitive MTG scene (and so how much demand is there for format staples)? How heavily was the set printed relative to the demand for it(i.e., MH1 vs. MMA levels)? And how many other people are holding sealed boxes of that set? The answer to the last question is one that Rudy has himself has a large effect on. If half as many people held onto boxes of RTR or KTK, the prices would undoubtedly be much higher than they are now. Overall, MTG sealed product is no longer really a viable investment, in my view, and largely because of Rudy and how popular he has made it.
One factor that Rudy, IMO, has very wrong is the supply factor. I remember him speaking about Weatherlight boxes as in a state of ‘constant decline of supply’ or something to that effect. Nobody opens Weatherlight boxes anymore, or very few do. There’s not the incentive to open sealed vintage MTG product (besides ABU and, to a lesser extent, Arabian Nights, Legends, and Antiquities) like there is to open sealed Pokemon product. No one gives a shit about getting a PSA 10 Null Rod or the like. There’s basically no market for post-Legends graded cards. And so there’s no real drive to obtain ‘gem mint’ copies of cards, and so no real interest in opening most vintage boxes. I’d imagine that if there are currently 1000 sealed boxes of Weatherlight that in five years there will still be 995+ left. You definitely cannot say the same thing about vintage Pokemon product.
Its actually Millennial Zard. But nice joke.
You should never question free investment advice!
Here’s mine:
- Dump all your Dragon Frontiers related products!
- buy cryptocurrencies!!! especially the ones I am selling!
On a more serious note: don’t listen to individuals or hive minds, do your own research. Sadly many people in the hobby are greedy and want a quick/easy profit. “investors” are probably the new flippers of today…
Buy the card you like, and others probably like it too.
It’s always a good investment.
I don’t see the difference in someone pushing modern compared to someone that pushes vintage. They both are doing the same thing. Modern might have more risk for less long term growth, BUT the price of entry is also alot less
Also I feel like people forget pokemon cards are collectables. Yes they have value, yes they can rise and drop, they can be sold, bought and resold pretty easily. Does that make them stocks? No, they are still mainly emotional items in my opinion.
I’ll always believe the best investment is the stuff you’ll love and enjoy. Which is kind of weird in a way because investing in Pokemon kind of takes advantage of that. The most recommended sets tend to be the ones that people like the most and want to open i.e. Hidden Fates. Taking a look through modern (XY base to now) the sets that get the most press are ones with charizards and ones with shinies. That’s within our expectations and virtually everyone would say the same if you had to recommend sets to invest in. Team Up and Ultra Prism get some love too, but that’s less about the set and more about the print run. I’ve seen people describe Team Up and Ultra Prism as good investments, but I’ve never heard people say let’s open them up. That kind of puts me off of them compared to something with charizard or shinies.
Personally, I think people overthink what modern sets to invest in. In 5-10 years, I bet we’ll look back and the sets we thought would appreciate in value are the ones that did. If you just want to make some money, buying any popular set with a charizard or shinies will probably gain you some return. If you want to maximize every single cent on your returns, well I’m not sure any investment channel can tell you that.
Eh @zorloth, I guess his central argument is that sealed product will naturally just rise in price over time, so the contents of the box don’t really matter as much as people think since the value of the sealed box will always deviate from the expected value of what’s inside. He touches on print run, but it’s not a very consistent thing e.g. he talked a lot more about commander 2018/2020 print runs than commander 2019/modern horizons, for instance.
I don’t touch sealed product btw, but I feel that at least his “investment advice” is a lot more credible than some of the examples mentioned in this thread regarding pokemon investment channels.
Yes, I definitely agree about Mirage - the crazy thing about Pokemon in general is how having the card graded increases its value massively. And there’s a set for everyone, unlike MTG where I’m not sure if I’ve met any hardcore Lorwyn block collectors before.
I didn’t have a problem with MTG till they started making mistakes continuously, and the whole everything has a ‘collector’s box’ edition or shiny full art is getting to me. Like I’d expect that from Pokemon, but not MTG. Also, the art direction has been terrible to me since RTR basically, although the recent return to Theroes had some decent art.
I can think of very few Pokémon YouTubers who create videos solely for the benefit of the viewer rather than for the benefit of their own wallet. If they’re pushing modern product, it’s probably because they have a supply of modern product that they’re looking to sell. This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. Whether it’s pushing modern product, pushing WotC, Japanese cards or even trying to indirectly advertise how much XY product they have for sale, most creators on YouTube are in it in part or in whole for the money.
That’s not trying to slam anyone, it’s just how YouTube works. Most of the successful Pokémon YouTubers have found the perfect balance between keeping viewers engaged with informative and useful content whilst also driving hype in some product (however subconsciously that may be). Sometimes they take it too far and we end up with threads like this.
It’s kinda like politics in a way, omg I hate X for brainwashing their viewers into believing some thing, meanwhile whoa Y is awesome I better get straight onto eBay and buy into that thing for myself before it’s too late.
Being cynical is a blessing sometimes. 
UnlistedLeaf?
Won’t be the first time he is pushing how rare a certain card is and YOU should buy it (especially if he has a big stock and he wanna maximize his profits). He did it with the Pikachu Festa card, he did it with Red’s Pikachu. Both cards now only maintain higher value because nobody is willing to accept the fact they are mass printed promo’s and taking a loss on them.
I think to this whole “pushing modern” Rudy made a good assessment of it last week; someone (or a collective of someone) are doing stuff to the market. Sealed XY era product doesn’t suddenly go up by 300-500%. If there were chase cards in it, we would’ve seen, known and all opened more of it. If there were playable cards in it, the product would’ve sold better. Both things do not apply. Shady stuff is happening.
Scream Pikachu was $10, now $120.
I think with the modern sealed product prices going up recently (hidden fates, burning shadows booster box etc) it’s only natural for channels to pick up on this and discuss it. However it does not mean they should push it and even more so as the price has already gone up then you are probably too late anyway.
Personally I think it’s people that are now out priced on vintages boxes trying to get on the ‘next best thing’. It’s easy for them to say look what happened to WOTC product and hope the trend follows. I do agree that investment channels should never push anything and only offer their personal opinions as let’s be honest, no one can 100% guarantee the future. A good example is try to find me a channel who said prices would 2/3/4x because of covid, there wasn’t even a single person who predicted that.
You’re right, if you were very strategic (and basically had a crystal ball) you could have made money with Sun and Moon. But I think you’re missing the forest for the trees here. You cited probably the few modern items that have gone up stonkers-style in the past few years. 95% of XY/SM ultra rare cards are still exactly where they were before, which is in the toilet. The vast majority of PSA 10 SM GX Full Arts/Hypers are still under $50, XY has a lot fewer out there but they’re still super cheap. PSA 10 regular GX is a joke.
My Zord example was a one-off so let’s actually look at the whole vintage vs modern market. Select Shining Legends cards have gone up a lot, Hidden Fates has gone up a lot, SM Zords have gone up, out-of-print XY boxes and short printed SM boxes have gone up. But outside of that and a few more select cards, modern set-based English hasn’t really done much. This is in overwhelming opposition to vintage cards, which have gone up basically across the board. There’s no way you can find a PSA 10 ex card for under $150 now, it used to be that you could get the lesser ones for $75 all day long. The more popular ex cards have quadrupled in price or more since this time last year. 1st WOTC has also spiked again across the board. Now of course past performance is no indicator of future performance as we’ve established, but the consistency of vintage cards is unparalleled. You could basically have blind-bought graded vintage holos at market price at any time over the past few years and you’d be very far ahead today. You can’t say that about modern product. Now everyone is entitled to their own feelings about the future of modern product. But to say your feelings on modern as an investment is the true objective reality - which are in direct opposition to the actual facts and data - is just wrong.
Also, your statement that the BS and FRLG Zords have had a similar price curve is not true. If you look at PokemonPrice it might seem that way, but PSA 10 FRLG Zord has been consistently rising from a low of around $500 last year. It went up to $700 before the year ended, and PWCC auctioned copies for $900, $1400, and $1700 between January and now. Other sales and auctions have recently been in the 2.1-2.4k range. The rise was fast but consistent. BS Zord was still under 1k in April and has gone up at record pace in record time. Read into that what you will.
Limited release, fan favorite, japanese exclusive, literally one of the best collabs ever.
I bought a few Pikachus in February/March for 40$ or so. 10$ is ages ago.
But unlisted leaf does not sell cards. So I don’t understand how this was to maximize his profit. He is just missinformed and is not pushing to gain money from cards.
Unlistedleaf definitely has an eBay account. I remember him pushing a bunch of “super ultra rare” Japanese packs a couple years ago. Full of shill bids.