I’m not sure if you guys have been noticing this but i have noticed that the market especially for 1st edition base in psa 9 has been very saturated recently. It seems like every day there are these cards being uploaded. For example if you take a look at 1st ed psa 9 charizard there are at least 3 auctions ending today. About 2 months ago the only place that would auction off that card was usually pwcc now it seems like everyone is trying to cash ou ton that card and a lot of auctions have been appearing on the market for that card. It was around a 6.5k card now we are seeing them in the low - mid 5k range. Why are so many people cashing out when the market is at a low? Let em know your thoughts guys! Thought it would be interesting to see everyone’s opinion.
Increased prices bring out people who were sitting on the cards.
There’s alot of base set cards printed. It’s one of the largest sets ever printed in history. Maybe the most printed set in fact actually.
So there is alot of these graded, extremely high populations compared to other sets. But extremely popular on the same hand. It’s the starting point for many people getting back into collecting, so will have alot of saturation. But it’s quite normal, even though I understand it looks a little crazy lately alot of auctions.
Maybe a good time to buy.
After everyone has met and spoken over the Xmas holidays, people realised and are selling
Between last summer and now, there was basically a 200% increase in price (2.5-3k to 5-5.5k). That’s extremely easy money for flippers or people who bought the card at $600 and are just not that interested anymore.
This is all very temporary though. Do you think the people who are paying $5k now will want to sell again at that price?
With the higher prices in the past few months, it brought out all the people sitting on theirs to make a quick buck. It’s just a cycle though. My bet is when prices jump again in the next 3-4 months, it’ll go another 15%.
very good point. I have only been keeping a market analysis for one year now so this is my first time recording prices thru the holiday season. I’m interested to see the prices pick back up and if this next holiday season we will have a decline again.
This can’t be overstated.
Exactly. They will hold until at least 6500 or more which drives the price up even more. It’s a good cycle to have.
I’ve noticed (anecdotally) that prices seem to peak in the the summer/fall months before dropping a bit in the winter each year. I assume a large portion of our community is either in school or too distracted this time of year to focus on their collections. Winter is a buyer’s market . . . just my two cents!
Sorry, I thought meant whole base set overall.
Yes first edition is short…
In my opinion, the fact that winter is a buyer’s market boils down to one thing: Christmas shopping.
People spend their disposable income (and more) on Christmas gifts, sometimes with cash/debit cards and sometimes with credit cards, the latter of which they have to pay off over the course of the following months.
As a result, people have less money to spend on collectibles.
Yeah it’s just a slow time of the year. I’m in that category of people that has 0 budget for Pokemon for probably another month.
The market is not really at a low though, you mention 1st Ed Zard… before the peak of $7k or so the going rate was about $4-4.5k. There’s been a bit of a retrace on a few of the cards, but it’s nothing I’d worry about.
That supply from people looking to cash out is going to dry up soon enough anyway. It is however possible some meant to sell at peak price and others are now panic selling thinking the prices are going to collapse. Good time to buy. 
This is a solid observation! The trend is in line with general retail as well.
To everyone that claims to know where the market is going, please, I beg you, let me borrow your crystal ball.
Bottom line: no one knows anything for certain. Sure, we can make “educated” guesses based on the history of the market, current saturation, scarcity, rarity, price spikes, holiday shopping, blah blah blah. But at the end of the day, no one truly knows.
Do I want my collection to go up in value? YES. Is that why I bought my collection? Absolutely and unequivocally, NO. I bought my cards because I love Pokemon.
Time will tell is literally the ONLY guarantee. Pokemon is a LIVE market. Markets fluctuate, but if you consider this hobby simply an investment I recommend putting your money elsewhere. Pay for what you believe a card is worth, with the inherent knowledge that you might be stuck with it if you don’t want to sell it for a loss. Stop being so concerned about market saturation and the price of cards. Our brilliant leader Scott has touched on this many times in his videos. I recommend rewatching them.
Who are you?
My name is Anthony. I am from minneapolis, MN. I am 28 years old. My eBay is danza2016.
I also am not trying to offend anyone. Im just saying trying to flip 1st edition holos as a business, as has also been said by Mr. Pratte many times, is simply not sustainable. His videos are EXTREMELY informative. And I am just trying to advise everyone on what I’ve learned; pay for a card with the inherent knowledge that you may be stuck with it unless you want to sell it for a loss. Yes, the market has been fluctuating a lot lately. None of us truly knows where it’s going. We all bet against the Shadowless PSA 10 Charizards for the last few years. Buy your cards, and love them. Of course, they are an investment. But in my opinion, that should come second to whether or not you truly want the card for the price you pay.
Agree with you except for base set. Base Set is safe set. It will continue to increase.