OP if you mean will there be a correction as in prices across the board will suddenly drop x% then no I don’t think that’s going to happen. Will there be a correction on individual cards that have spiked in value recently though? Yes. As others have mentioned this has already happened with some cards, it’s normal behaviour.
When something spikes to a record high there is usually a slight retrace in price, you can see it on MTG reserved list buyouts, a spike will push a card from say $100 to $400, but then there is always a retrace but it’s never back to the original $100. You see around 20-30% retrace in most cases. Cards that have a limited supply like high grade 1st edition, gold stars etc. generally hold their value, they spike, they retrace and they settle at a new stable price higher than the pre spike price. These cards don’t drop dramatically because they’re limited, there won’t be more of them and if they start to drop there are buyers waiting in the wings to pick them up the moment they become cheaper.
In terms of a massive market disruption like a recession these cards still hold value. I don’t know about pokemon but during the housing crisis MTG was totally fine, in fact card prices were still going up in some cases for reserved list staples or just holding value. People say that in a time of crisis the collectibles will be the first thing to go, this may be true if the individual is in dire straights but generally that’s an extremity and not the norm - most people are fine. Also, the people that have the capital to be spending thousands on non essentials like trading cards probably aren’t going to feel the pinch and need to sell of their collectibles. I also don’t think there would be a massive flood of high end cards into the market during this time because people (I fall into this category) would rather just hold onto their cards because they enjoy having them than take a loss. You see it on pawn stars every episode, people say ‘for that price I’d rather just keep it’ and that’s totally true. It’s actually quite interesting in this scenario you also often have people waiting for prices to drop on things with the intention of picking them up, the old greedy when others are fearful quote applies. I know I’d personally be setting a floor on 1st edition wotc boxes if this situation ever came around, they would never go below $1k each because I’d buy them if they got that low. There are plenty of other people willing to do the same on other items.
The main reason for a flood in the market of cards is often the reverse - when prices spike. A card shoots up in value, much higher than what an owner paid for it and they decide to cash out, this is when you see supply hitting the market and is usually the cause of a price retrace. Take a look at 1st edition shining charizard, it grew exponentially and set a record price a couple of months ago … now the last two PWCC auctions have featured a couple of 1st edition PSA 9s/10s and now this month there are 3 PSA 10s in the one auction. I think it’s pretty clear here that owners are taking their profits and this flood of cards may cause a retrace, down from 2500-2600 to maybe 2000-2200. Once the market dries back up again though you can be sure this card will grow and surpass its previous high, especially if the current supply goes to ‘forever homes’.
