I do remember that video. I dont think charizard will be 1 million any time soon. The sports market has a higher ceiling compared to Pokémon because there are just so many more collecting sports cards
2 Likes
Sounds like a lot of people are stuck in the safari zone. 
7 Likes
Your observation about the surplus of newer cards and nearly indistinguishable vendors has less to do with the health of the overall pokemon card market than the lack of uniqueness in an already competitive market. The same can be said about the increase in auction houses and marketplaces during the past few years - the platform and business model has become almost entirely commoditized. One could argue that the fact there is this increasing number of vendors & marketplaces entails there is enough interest and growth in the market to warrant the necessary margins for their respective businesses. Whether it’s sustainable is a separate issue.
If, however, the surplus of vendors, valuation of cards, supply, and level of interest has collectively decreased, then everything combined would warrant a conversation around the health of the market.
Again, I am not saying that I believe the market is incredibly strong right now, but I would not correlate redundancy and surplus of modern product as a result of overall market health. The decreased interest of pack openings is another example - just because people are less excited for the same thing on repeat, it doesn’t mean that they are any less engaged in the market.
Between the search history data you shared and TCGFish’s data on volume of sales and listings, these data points are more meaningful for better understanding the status of the overall market.
cpbog1
2 Likes
You’re right, but the way you say it makes it sound the path from the safari zone should strive to move from it. Not sure if that’s what you mean. Do you think the huge majority of safari zone explorers bring value to Pokemon collecting? Or that the only value they brings is the chance that they may advance from the safari zone to the elite four one day?
Edit: Sorry if this comes off as presumptuous and incendiary. I genuinely mean this as something I was considering for myself as well.
You know, at first my reaction was “duh” but your response helped me understand how damaging a lot of the stockbro platitudes can be in a market as volatile as collectibles.
To be clear, collectibles are NOT the stock market, where you buy large quantities of fungible liquid securities. There is no dollar cost averaging in collectibles. Collectibles are much more prone to rapid growth and rapid decline. Even in the stock market, “time in the market” has caveats that need to be more strongly emphasized in the collectible sphere:
- “Time in the market” is as defined by what you DO purchase as much as what you DON’T purchase
- Mania/parabolic price increases are not the ideal time to buy. Nothing wrong with missing the boat – there is plenty wrong with buying the top
- “time in the market” is predicated on the most basic fundamental investment principle, which is “don’t invest what you aren’t willing to lose 50% of tomorrow” or, more simply put: “caveat emptor/buyer beware”
2 Likes
I agree with all of your points. I find myself browsing the pokeinvesting reddit and other places like it from time to time. The routine posts in these places are insane. Almost every post is “How did i do” or “Is this going to go up in x amount of years” with pictures featuring your local walmart shelf level inventory. Hell, those posts are even more abundant than WoTC era stuff. It’s alarming the amount of people who have closests full of things like Hisuian Electrode V boxes and Scarlet & Violet base etbs. I can’t begin to get into the minds of individuals that do that. The amount of financial ignorance and just straight stupidity to make moves like that makes you lose faith in humanity a little bit lol…but maybe thats just the mind set of the “social media collector”.
Granted, there is a snow balls chance in hell that these sorta things could prove to be good “investments” and make meaningful $$$. In all reality though, those people are going to be in for a bad time.
2 Likes
After reading all these posts, I have a feeling I’ll end up living in a van down by the river.
12 Likes
One potential silver lining from Pokemon cards stagnating is it seems more and more that Pokemon cards / the collectibles market in general are relatively un-correlated with more traditional investments, like the stock market. In the past couple years there have been periods where:
- stocks up, Pokemon cards up
- stocks down, Pokemon cards up
- stocks up, Pokemon cards down
Good sign if you’re looking to diversify your portfolio?
This is not financial advice, I’m not your financial advisor, take this fwiw
1 Like
thank you financial advisor zork
3 Likes
The more cards they release, the more money you have ‘invested’ in it, after awhile you do start to question why you have so much tied up in cardboard lol
It’s unfair to an extent given that you wouldn’t have the same mindset for most other things you spend money on given that they are either consumable/experiential or are not collectible so have non-existent resale value.
1 Like
I think this all gets back to cost VS value. What I’m seeing is a discussion split between two topics:
- Is PkMn card market stagnating?
- Is PkMn card hobby stagnating?
The latter is great right now! Undeniably, better than ever! Well, depending on what you like, but there are more options than ever. The former is a real debate and depends on circumstance.
6 Likes
Hahahah I edited that video back when Sasha and I were making videos. Prior to that card show sports had a HUGE run up. Cards that were once 1.6-2k went to 14-18k. Record sales for Kobe Patch Autos were absurdly high from recent comps on Goldin all within the past two weeks. So everything felt inflated.
But yeah there was soooo much back and forth for this negotiation due to the idea of where the Charzars card would go to make it fair for everyone.
I think there are more deep collectors now then before, but @pfms point still stands that the modern overload will affect a lot of people soon
3 Likes
It’s funny because I saw a Reddit post the other day of exactly this and in the comments they said they had spent $40k and it looked exactly as you just described.
11 Likes
“old back vending cubone” somehow typifies my collecting history with pinpoint accuracy even without specifically ever owning a Vending Cubone
3 Likes
I find the prices for specific WOTC era PSA 10s have skyrocketed over the past 3 years by far too much.
For example look at the Coro Coro Mew. In PSA 10 that was approximately $200 just before COVID. Now people want $6000!
Ultimately I do feel that the market is stagnating because most people are ultimately collectors so they are naturally inflating prices. The modern stuff meanwhile is being printed to oblivion which is of no help to scalpers. Again it’s been raised here that the costs of grading have gone up so most collectors are prioritising graded over raw.
1 Like
I have been trying to learn the hockey market a lot this past year, going to a few sport card expos locally.
I went to one this past November, and the tides are turning a lot worse there than in Pokémon.
The vendors were happy to give me 25-50% discounts on even higher liquidity cards (young guns of popular players), meanwhile I found the few Pokémon vendors at the expo held their ground much more and had more of an “I know what I got” attitude.
I definitely agree with all the points made in this thread in regards to the Pokémon market, but hockey (which is already niche compared to the other sports card markets) is in a tough place right now, much more than I would have predicted if you asked me a year ago when I started getting into it.
Is this a sign of things to come for Pokémon? Who knows, TCGs and sports operate very different of course, but the bears seem to be much much larger from what I’ve noticed locally on marketplace/eBay and expos like that for hockey compared to Pokemon haha.
5 Likes
Idk the sales rate of Modern, but it does sound like Scarlet/Violet has taken quite a bit of shade outside of 151, but 151 feels like its own beast. I randomly collected cards since 2017 but never grabbed modern boxes until the 2020 boom, so I have zero knowledge of the previous sentiment around newer sets.
As for collect-a-con style events, I personally think the vendors are behind the times. Not everyone likes it, but Gary Vee has his TCG for Veefriends (his NFT project), and his booth is amazing! The booths I’ve seen are typically VERY similar and don’t have a brand or much energy to their booth. I 100% respect those with the nostalgia for card shop booths, but I believe many have moved digitally for their buying/collecting. There is no reason to drive to a collecting conference to haggle with a guy to most likely pay more than what we can find on eBay. Why watch someone open a pack in person on a foldable table, packed with people, when I can hop on Youtube and see the cards in 4K, and they have a beautiful studio with colorful lights? I believe people move towards the path of least resistance, and online is the way.
I do believe many have junk slabs from the past few years. I made a mistake chasing some movement and was left with a bunch of random PSA cards I literally give away to friends, kids, or guys at work because it’s not worth my time to sell. I believe CGC cards are mainly junk slabs compared to PSA, as the price difference displays. (Not trying to trigger anyone, just my POV)
To recognize the title of your post, I agree the market has stagnated for the time being. It’s a slower time in most markets as we’re all waiting to see how things pivot with the gov. Seems “most” in E4 are swapping cards with each other, as we’re not hunting the newest hype cards. I assume the market will change, and I also don’t believe we’ve seen the highest costs for all cards. Obviously, this is just my guess, but more $$ printing plus the next Pokemon GO-style game from Nintendo will repeat insane energy IMO.
The advice I give myself- “Just keep swimming” 
2 Likes
Sounds like many sellers living about 2 years delayed from when they could have made money, now in a market where that’s just not going to happen due to market conditions.
I sit go to shows or anything but I’d never assume I could buy a single card for market value, potentially even modern cards.
Great insights everyone, thanks for the read. I’ve been selling some extra PSA 10 and 9 alt arts and I’ve noticed the market stagnating as well. Still buying though because I enjoy collecting.
1 Like
Is the Pokemon card market stagnating?
9 Likes