Is the modern Japanese Pokemon card market in a speculative bubble? Pt. 2

i’m going to scream. please. i’m begging you. don’t do this.

I’ll never understand how these modern cards can reach and exceed some of most historical, scarce cards in the hobby. I just hope in 10 years vintage promos like this soar past everything and stick their tongue out on the way up.

Lets search other graphs for common patterns and discuss what we are seeing

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Please join my telegram sir for the best signal and infos

Why does it seem like the only thing that’s hugely increased is something with a Lillie on it? SP/SMP promos like Kanazawa, shibuya, cosplay, swallowed up, Yokohama, munch, mega Tokyo, stamp set, etc etc have stayed the same. Vintage Japanese exclusives staying the same.

It’s oddly narrow. Maybe I’m wrong and not seeing the non-lillie ones.

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Waifu

Actually, a lot more than waifu cards have stonked. Check out all the stonkers here:

But yes, waifus are leading the pack.

I initially said disagree because I didn’t think EVERYTHING was in a bubble, but then I saw @dack get an offer of 2k on his PSA 10 Lillie/Clefairy CHR and I am throwing rationality to the wind.

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I just got a $2k offer from the same account as dack, but it’s a 0 feedback account, created literally today with a sus fake name. Just some manipulation bot account or something.

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This has to be a bubble? How is a PSA 10 FA Alolan friends worth almost as much as a psa 9 1st edition charizard? I’ve always said Japanese promos are the way to go because there will never be another printing, but this just feels so weird to see 5x, 10x in a matter of days/weeks. Feels exactly like 2020 IMO.

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I will not forgive what they took from us.

I’m using their charts to consider when to sell the spares I have in hand, but on the other hand I also consider them as part of the reason behind this recent hype.

The sources they use are recent sales data from “Flea Market Apps” and didn’t specify which app that is. If it’s Mercari then there’s plenty of room for market maniupulation, as I mentioned earlier that Mercari marked everything as sold, including those whose transaction were cancelled. This allows flippers to just shill on their listings, cancel the transactions and leave the sold prices on their listings, which the chart will pick up and integrate into their data. In addition, Mercari is known for acting passively on cancel abuse so most flippers will just get away without punishment.

TBH it had been worse until recently as there was another Twitter account called PokéCa Finance tweeting charts which were retweeted frequently. What’s worse about them is that they solely rely on Card Rush as data source, so whenever Card Rush adjusted their list price or even temporarily removing all their stock would affect their charts heavily. The account was closed last weekend for undisclosed reasons.

Chart tweets may not be the major factor of a hype (in fact, the major factor for this time is either Clove or Clay Burst reprints), but they do help spread the fire as they will be fed to those who aren’t actively checking price trends, especially when they went viral and brought up in Twitter trends. If their data source wasn’t clear enough then they can be manipulated to create hypes.

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This was the prevailing thought at the onset of the pandemic, as well, but instead, things skyrocketed. You never know what Pokemon is going to do.

What an utter chaos with modern japanese. Vintage it’s still “doing ok” and not seeing crazy movements YET.

March 2023

May 2023

The sentiment has shifted

Strongly agree → +14
Agree → +4
Neutral → -5
Disagree → -11
Strongly disagree → -2

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I
Am
Speechless

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Japan’s joint ownership platform :upside_down_face:

What if it’s just one billionaire who has a freak obsession with Lillie, who’s buying up the entire market of Lillie cards? At this point nothing can surprise me anymore.

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I’m just gonna leave this here

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