Do you agree with this statement:
Modern Japanese Pokemon cards are in a speculative bubble.
- Strongly agree
- Agree
- Neutral
- Disagree
- Strongly disagree
0 voters
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Please vote before reading any comments below
I clicked disagree, but I think there is speculation.
Unless supply increases a decent amount I don’t think prices will crash, if that means anything.
FWIW I do think firing up the printers would lead to a disproportionate decrease in price than we’d expect if the market was tru collectors only, which is to say the people speculating purely for profit might get scared into cutting their losses (I don’t typically think of them as the diamond hand types).
I’d also add that people who just want the card are forced to speculate on what the price will be, and right now it seems like they’ll just buy whatever it goes for out of the gate. There’s no bubble without a base of collectors, and my impression is that’s still the large majority.
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For people who think there is a bubble, I’m curious on the reasons why?
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I’m not sure what factors are contributing to people’s belief that this is the case. I am not very involved with Japanese Modern but its demand seems pretty organic even if there’s gougers taking advantage of popular cards — as is the case always.
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I said bubble because there are too many people holding cards and products that aren’t genuinely interested in them or collecting them.
The value of the card comes down to what the end collector will pay for them.
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I’d like to go with Scalpers for $200 Alex
You literally have to enter lotteries to get these boxes anywhere near MSRP. People are sitting on CASES upon CASES hoarding the cards to the highest international or sometimes even local bidders. It ruins the Japanese market internationally while also limiting the amount of people opening the cards locally.
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Vstar Universe is one of the best sets ever made, and its cheaper now than a few months ago. This is because its had multiple print waves. To me that indicates more of a supply issue for the newer sets than a bubble.
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I voted agree, but with some specific cards in mind more than others. Things like ar’s/base v’s/ex’s are at reasonable levels and I don’t think their prices are unsustainable. However, certain promo’s and full art trainers I would argue are a bit inflated at the moment. Most of that boils down to new chinese buyers entering the market and japanese card stores setting high floors with their buylists.
On the chinese buyer side, I don’t know how deep that pool of buyers is, but if there ever comes a point where these high-end buyers complete their chases, I don’t know if the western market can support the prices they pushed the cards up to. I rarely see any of the high-end promos going to the western market anymore which makes me think that if anything were to happen to the chinese buyer market, the prices would fall rather quickly.
On the card store front, essentially the card stores are backstopping any real downward pressure on these new trainers as people know they can pay whatever and their downside is limited thanks to the buylists. I think if you take away that element of safety and solely relied on the open market to flesh out the prices we might be seeing something different.
I think this sort of bubble that I am thinking of is less so that demand is fake and more so that there is just a pool of liquidity keeping these prices pushing at the moment. I think an easy comparison is the FED and their balance sheet activity. Once the fed stops providing insane amounts of liquidity in the bond markets, people begin to start taking risk-off activites. I think the same could apply to this market. Obviously I could be completely wrong and this is the new normal for the japanese market, but my gut feeling is that some things seem inflated.
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A thread solely meant to stir the pot. Nice 
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Can I get an explanation on what a speculative bubble would mean in this case?
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I think part of the fun is the lack of specificity 
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I put neutral. Clearly a supply problem which trickles into higher prices which brings in the entrepreneurs.
But if I had $10,000 to spend in the hobby to invest, the final thing on that list would be a waifu.
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I don’t mean in the sense of what is being speculated on, I’ve actually just never heard the term speculative bubble before so I’m trying to figure out the meaning haha. Wasn’t hard to look up though.
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The supply issue is artificial with people having cases of booster boxes just for flipping. This wasn’t a thing a few short years ago
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STRONG DISAGREE
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This still falls under a supply issue. “Speculation” was happening with Vstar Universe, and its lower today than launch, because of the multiple print waves. Sets like Triple Beat that are wave 1 are higher. But if they receive multiple waves the price will decrease.
From a distributor standpoint, I am able to get more of my orders now than I was a couple years ago. That doesn’t align with your observation.
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didnt this happen with english like 2 years ago
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I feel it’s possible on a couple of sets and maybe certain cards, but less so than on the English side currently. So I’m feeling more neutral, mainly. I still think that Japanese in general is more niche for a lot of people, and in my experience it’s been more stable in terms of prices/volatility. Likewise, I just don’t see the same level of discussion happening on it as the English side in terms of the singles or sealed product, at least not quite yet. I feel that the demand for Japanese is more organic and less speculative than English overall, both vintage & modern.
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I disagree because I believe strongly that Japanese is the superior product.
However I do think the waifu prices are unsustainable.
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