Id love to meet the people that are trading 3 cards for a house on a regular basis.
“Infinite growth is impossible”
Is true and says nothing. Deceleration is not decline, the bull case doesn’t require 10% monthly growth forever, it requires the hobby to not collapse. (It won’t imo)
its not realistic to expect an ever increasing amount of human population to become fans over time
The top of the market is priced by a different mechanism than the bottom, and your entire post only describes the bottom. A millie ray goldstar doesn’t need a million new fans, it needs two bidders.
The guy above who compared vintage to fine art had the right idea and pokemon has many practical advantages over art, watches or handbags. Plus it’s the #1 IP in the world with a constant marketing department.
The most expensive Pokémon card ever sold is $16.492 million, while the most expensive fine art piece ever sold is $450.3 million. I think the “just getting started” case predicts that Pokémon will, in fact, surpass art - similar to how the “just getting started” case for Bitcoin predicts that it will surpass gold.
A fixed, gradable, collateralizable (see ALT and a few others) float being bid on by fuk you money that’s growing in dollars is the bullcase. Fewer bidders with more money is not a bearish setup, it’s how every hard asset market works. The fiat debasement trade era is in full swing. Your late stage capitalism concerns entails exactly this and weak/forced hands selling to committed wealthy collectors and institutional buyers is how an asset class matures
Your generational wealth point is also lacking the simple fact that the boomers won’t take their money into their grave, the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history is imminent. Money doesn’t just evaporate, money supply by design constantly grows.
Plus the hobby has already survived a full bubble and crash cycle and the top of the vintage market has now surpassed its 2021 levels. A huge bullish signal to exactly that crowd of people who don’t know where to park their ever increasing wealth. It’s easier to manage 10 pieces of plastic than 10 additional empty condos in london, ask the russians how that went. Fine art needs maintance, fine watches need maintance, supercars and especially vintage cars need maintance, a piece of plastic does not.
Again, something to recall: At the top of art and watches, most of the float is held by people who aren’t in it for the art or the watches. That indifferent super fuck you money competes with fuck you money actually interested in the hobby which is also plenty of.
Tldr: vintage psa pop stays same, but the rich will always get richer and the fed will always print more money. Pokemon is lindy effect & #1 IP in the world. Fixed small vintage supply vs infinite fiat = numba go up
Tldr tldr: Pokemon is just getting started
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Something to keep in mind. Not all card orders sold are fulfilled (i.e, buyer doesn’t have the money). Unscrupulous people will artificially spam prices of certain cards with bots to manipulate other buyers, or try to be a market mover. Remember, on the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.
I think they’re people who like Pokémon and are rich, at least the majority of them. I go to care shows a decent amount and talk to some folks that I know have a good amount of money and they for sure like Pokémon, and would have far more of an emotional attachment to it than some sort of alt coin that ultimately just exists as a transaction row some sort of database/block chain etc.
Now for sure there’s some people who enter it pretty coldly, and there probably is some institutions who are beginning to invest into some of these slabs that of course don’t have feelings. But I don’t think that this sentiment makes up the majority of those folks like it obviously does with crypto or nfts.
For example, I don’t like Logan Paul at all really, and I’m sure he’s happy to scam people out of crypto whenever he gets a chance, but I don’t think that he’s Larping being a fan of the Pokemon franchise.
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This. Pokémon is actually fun. It reminds me of a Paolo Nutini song. We aren´t machines.
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Yeah, I definitely think Logan Paul is a legit Pokémon fan. Is he LARPing with Yugioh and One Piece? Absolutely. With Pokémon? Definitely not.