I still think this is mathematically not sustainable, since most people talk about this from the financial gain aspect, and double digit growth per month cannot be sustained in human economies indefinitely. however its also impossible to know how or why or when it will slow down, only that it must eventually do so.
even in terms of pure new fan acquisition or rate of acquisition, its not realistic to expect an ever increasing amount of human population to become fans over time, let alone fans that spend significant disposable income in the tcg aspect.
Pokemon has always been primarily targeted towards kids, but not only are fertility rates dropping worldwide, so is the attention of kids being targeted by many more things completely outside of tcgs or even anime, so even if pokemon continues to be a worldwide household name and even increasing slightly, it’s not obvious to me that there is orders of magnitude of growth left to do.
Then there’s the generational aspect of older collectors, and while everyone assumes every younger generation just spends on nostalgia as they grow up, both millennial and zoomers are and probably continue to prove the recent trend that we are less wealthy than the baby boomers and previous generations. The world population continues to increase for now and that also means more competition for resources (and without getting too political there is also the aspect of growing inequality and late-stage capitalism), which could also mean that realistically the pokemon tcg as a hobby might shrink due to financial stress in the average household so there will be a transfer of ownership over time. As we all know by now, sometimes the hardest thing is holding the items given the allure of converting them to money to help with ownership, lifestyle changes, removing debt, or other more important things in life.
Very good and well researched video! Refreshing to see someone actually make an intelligent case for the “cards are just getting started case” rather than the usual “look at the charts, don’t miss out, or have fun staying poor” recycled cryptobro slop. The ONE thing I’d disagree on is the “94% of wealthy adults under 44 are investing in collecibles” being a long term bull case; this is a very hot market right now, and there are alot of very wealthy people who got involved recently not out of any actual love for Pokémon, but because they read the Wall Street Journal article and want exposure now. There’s a reason that so many crypto-focused Instagram pages have been reposting the same WSJ headline about how “Pokémon cards are better investments than stocks” for the past year. They probably read the WSJ article last year, called their frat brothers, and said “ayo bro u see this pokemon shit? its insaneee bro, been crushing stocks!!! we gotta get in on this shit fam!” (which is how my nerdy ass imagines is how popular people talk )
That´s all good and well, but if I go on Ebay right now I can get it for cheaper than that. Don´t believe every sale. A good example of that is the Lapras selling for 45k, while selling three times foor 16 after that.
Let´s put it this way; I had a Dark Espeon that at one point sold for 30k, but the auctions after that finished at 12 - 14. You can pick out that one sale, but that doesn´t mean a lot.
It is interesting though that the term rookie card finally get´s introduced.
I almost think it’s a conspiracy that all of the widely used charts don’t show more than 2-3yr history. If we were always looking at the max chart the perspective might be much different.
I think the hobby is much healthier during its cooling stages. It feels easier to engage when the noise isn’t predominantly centered around the evaluation and fluctuation of cards.
As long as my inbox is full of cryptobros, rip & ship streamers, and speculators, then we’re going up baby. Once those messages die down, I’ll feel confident that we’re in a down market.
The caveat: Markets are hard. Every prediction has two parts. First you need to know what will happen in the real world and then you need to guess/predict what effect will that event have on future price. So there are 4 outcomes - right/wrong on the event and right/wrong on market price impact. With all of the benefits that come with working at a big fund, we still get one or both things wrong daily. With markets of any kind - stocks, bonds, commodities, and even collectibles - there is almost an element of unpredictability.
Depending on how analytically minded one is, I think it is difficult for some (including me) to separate the role that sentiment and momentum plays in the market if you’re a fundamental analyst. I bring that up because I’ve seen a lot of people say that the recent Goldin Mario 64 sale is still high by any standard except for versus two months ago.
I think there is a better than coin flip chance that’s wrong. Almost every time I have underestimated the role of speculators/trader/momentum, I’ve lost money. The “why” it sold for less matter less than the fact that it “did” sell for less. In any speculative market, higher price points create a positive feedback loop that leads to higher price points. We have talked about Pokémon prices down from April peak. Now we see the M64 down by half. These are things that will scare some speculators, and these are signs that the pockets of weakness in the market are spreading.
Just my $0.02. High level thoughts - in an effort to keep the length digestible.
I always assume when people ask this question they are talking about in regards to PSA 10 slabs.
Low pop cards (let’s say < 200 in a PSA 10) are going to continue increasing because enough dummy rich folks exist that are going to fight for a limited pool of these slabs. And for any auction you only need two. But as more time goes on, those richer folks are able to actually resist selling off said slabs because, well, they’re rich. And that’s just going to make that available pool even more limited. And those same rich folks are actively ripping the remaining sealed vintage product out there so that there won’t be any more chances to increase the pop.
I would hope most of the veterans here that don’t actively hatewatch because they sold before this boom understand that by now. The law of supply and demand will win here. The only way this changes is if macro economics/external forces/politics make these people a lot less rich.
What people are actively hate watching in the market threads are just a result of a very few amount of obscenely rich mofos that are honestly just spending (to them) the equivalent of what some of y’all spent back in the late 2010s to the early 2020s. And that group is slowly increasing.
Modern PSA 10s will always fluctuate based off hype though. The modern wave that happened in the second quarter of the year stemmed from the initial vintage boom we saw at the beginning of the year but now people are taking profits from that to either cash out or to further trade into vintage. I’m going to guess that once the 30th comes out that modern has a bit of a jump again that will stagnate in in late q1 of 2027.
You talking Unlimited? You mention Dark Espeon, Rusty had his big sale and now it appears to have met the $50k threshold which doesn’t surprise me given the iconic artwork and like pop 52 from a great Neo set. These are major fundamentals in my mind, where you seeing $12k??
Yes, but we also gotta factor in: do these obscenely rich people with $10M+ net worth actually want the cards, or are they just another avenue for making money? I harken back to Kevin O’Leary’s statement last year when he said “I view these cards no different from how I view my crypto.” These aren’t people who love Pokémon; they’re people who read the WSJ article last year and aped in. I think people underestimate just how much impact the WSJ article had.
