I know there are already some topics about this, but I thought I´d concentrate it a bit on this specific question. I also understand that vintage and modern are two very different things, but to keep the main question simple I didn´t specify.
I think there are two ways to look at this; Pokémon has become bigger and bigger, and while there are people that only want the money, the amount of people that like Pokémon is also increasing. Because the hobby is very young (the oldest fans are usually under 40) and because it is cross-generational (it spans multiple generations) it isn´t something that is tied to a certain group of people. It´s something that is alive and part of society. Growth and staying-power would thus be very much expected.
On the other hand, there is still a (large) group involved in Pokémon that is (mostly) in it for money, and if hype starts to slow down, this could trigger a snowball effect where more and more start to sell/jump to the next thing. Even though the base group is still large, that could still have a big effect on the market, causing some of the people that ´kind of liked´ Pokémon to leave to ect.
The question is then; are prices unnaturally hign now, and will they drop off soon, or, is this just the beginning. I´m leaning towards the latter.
I think with Pokemon now, there are so many market segments within “Pokemon”.
While one segment might be in a bear market, another segment can be completely popping off. For simplicity I’ll do just (2) modern and vintage
Modern:
I think Poketubers/Poketwitter are on the bubble bursting topic/bear market. As of now the last three mainline sets are sitting close to MSRP (Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, Pitch Black). I also feel that in general there hasnt been a more difficult time to buy product. Prior it took so long for booster boxes to hit MSRP, while these “bad” sets are sitting at/above MSRP. I think interest is still incredibly high.
Vintage:
I believe gotcha/gambling slab packs are impacting the market greatly. Especially with PSAs shutdown of cheaper tiers, these repack companies are going on the secondary market scooping up whatever cards to fulfill inventory/the gamble. Promos that might have had a total PSA population in the thousands/low ten thousands now feel scarcer/more expensive. Gambling/betting in the Unities States has never been bigger and impacting all different segments within the economy.
Overall long term:
I think the market for both vintage and modern will continue to go up over time. I think with Pokemon still appealing to generations today buys us at least 25+ more years of relevance for whenever they start hitting higher income/nostalgia. Pokemon still being very relevant today, to me is a huge bullish sign.
Must be a hot topic then ; ) See this as a refreshment of the discussion. A bit more concentrated. And also a bit more objective than something like ´when will the bubble burst´ (no offense, just stating it as it is).
I think we’re now at a point where a lot of the ‘easy money’ has been made in most cards/sets. I’m sure that many collectors probably felt that way in past booms as well, but I feel it’s even more this way after the past couple of years as supply has continually gotten eaten up and prices have soared. Anything that was remotely undervalued seems to have moved up quite a lot.
I suspect at some point we’ll have a sizable correction or quiet period again. There’s no way it can last forever at this pace, but who knows. The main difference I am finding in this cycle is that it seems a lot of people are holding cards more than before, and I’m not seeing nearly as much supply dumped on the market yet, so the actual sales volume is sort of low on some cards/sets.
It just seems like popularity and scarcity of certain cards/sets are playing into things more than ever. The buyer pool seems a lot deeper now than ever with no signs of slowing anytime soon.
Speaking personally, many of my cards have gone up 10-20x. But I am in no hurry to sell many of them and I’ve only sold some that I didn’t genuinely want to keep. Not because I’m trying to get rich, but I just really enjoy those particular cards regardless of the price changes. I think many are feeling the same, especially if they bought into these higher price levels at all. People simply love these cards and want to hold on to them more than ever it seems.
I can see the market cooling off for a long while. I think people are tired of these hype cycles and they’ll get shorter and shorter.
I think in the next 5 years, 10$ grading will come back as well as under msrp boxes.
I for one am sick of prices this high and I think the majority of the collector base agrees.
At least with a dip, I know I will stay connected to the hobby enough to see these norms come back.
I like to think things are just getting started for vintage. Myself and a few others are still making new WOTC discoveries almost every day. Stuff that it seems like WOTC internally maybe didn’t even know about so asking the experts is futile.
I think educating people on the history would go a long ways. Most don’t even know there are multiple versions of 1st edition Base.
We still can’t get grading companies to recognize dozens of Base set and other WOTC variants. When collectors realize their master sets are missing 50-75% of the cards they might be interested in finishing those sets.
I’m personally feeling that struggle right now with my own collection. Items that I dont have multiples of or have strong sentimental attachment to I find myself struggling to part with. Mainly in fears that I’ll be out priced in the future.
To your second point, the information gap seems to have greatly closed at least from what I’ve been seeing. IE. Poketwitter/crytobros are now chasing “golden era Japanese promos” that for the longest time felt slept on. Prior cycles, it seemed the mass couldnt get passed WOTC…but now they’re venturing to Japanese promos/Natta Wake/Trainer Magazine more niche cards.
By now several long time collectors faced the truth and reality that selling some stuff could make life changing money. Im in that scenario, while i didnt sell everything i’ve been slowly selling pieces of my collection for prices i would’ve never imagined, like 5 figures for random reverse holos from Ex Era.
If the market corrects, i’d be definitely interested in buying my stuff back, if not, it was a fun ride.
There’s something i did hold onto and thats my sealed collection, unfortunately, since the value of some boxes went up astronomically, most of them are now sitting on a safe box, which sucks since they were on display prior 2025.
At this point, the majority of people think it’s just getting started, but there is a vocal minority who thinks the market is due for a major pullback.
Personally, I’m not sure. All these random vintage and mid era PSA10s hitting the $50k-200k range feels crazy. Booster Boxes being worth well over $200 and ETBs over $100 on release also feels nuts. Modern “grails” with 20k+ PSA10s worth several thousands feels nuts too.
But then again, we were saying the same about Gold Stars crossing 5 figures half a decade ago, now look at them, most are 6 figures, with Torchic now in the 7 figures. Also, while Pokémon has now surpassed most other collectibles categories in a very short period of time - including titans like stamps and even sports cards and is extremely close to coins - we still have a LOOOOONG way to go before we get anywhere even close to art. The most expensive Pokémon card ever sold is $16.492 million, while the most expensive fine art piece ever sold is $450.3 million. I think the “just getting started” case predicts that Pokémon will, in fact, surpass art - similar to how the “just getting started” case for Bitcoin predicts that it will surpass gold.
What actually ends up happening is anyone’s guess. Will be interesting to see how things play out.
Yeah, but these 50 - 100k vintage cards are still exceptions. Your average vintage first edition PSA 10 (Venusaur Base Set, Kabutops Fossil, Flareon Jungle) are still below 10k.
Are they, though? Expedition Poliwrath sold for $40k. Expedition Butterfree sold for $50k. Random Gen 3 Reverse Holos have been selling in the 5 figures as well. A random mid era promo Lugia recently sold for 6 figures. These aren’t exactly grails.
Yeah, it´s a weird market like that. But let me just say that the semi-grails of Base Set, Jungle, Fossil, Team Rocket, Gym ect. pretty much never cross 20k, let alone 50 in 1st Edition PSA 10. That includes cards like Dark Dragonite, Dark Blastoise, pretty much any Fossil card (even Gengar doesn´t surpase 50). The question then becomes; are they underrated.
There´s just a lot of random cards (I don´t really understand it) that have completely gone out of control.
@PokemonClassics made a great video explaining how Pokemon may still be on the way up and compares it with baseball from a growth perspective. Anything WOTC will age like fine wine and remember that sometimes all it takes is a little push for a card or set to really explode.
