I’m guessing we are choosing purely based on speculation here? I can see people not being interested in the Charizord but it’s less about “which one would you rather own” and more about “which one would you rather put 12k to with the expectation of a return”?
We are in the Market section after all 
Lol idk, i view it as a chance for me to regain some faith in the new generation
That was my point. Using a formula that applies to only one (older), to compare 2 very different items is not really useful.
The Umbreon seems to be the greater speculation risk, since it has not held its value over time. However, as mentioned here. Modern cards optimize at the speed of light. Speculating that the Umbreon may still hold this value or increase in 10 years I don’t think is crazy. When someone bought The Illustrator for 23k in 2000, it was rare, minter but not old. The buyer was speculating its value would hold or grow. That speculation paid off. Is Umbreon BGS Black Label in the same category? Rarer and minter (BGS BL , 1% of Pokemon market) , someday old?
I always start to reply to threads like this… then I reread it and realize I sound like the “old man yelling at cloud” meme and don’t post it.
Misty’s trainer deck is a grail. If I had the money I would buy that over any modern card
Also, people collect what they like not what may be more valuable.
And there’ll always be more people interested in actual art featuring a popular Pokemon than there will be a sealed deck.
Maybe this should go in the unpopular opinions thread - though I’m not sure it’s that unpopular to begin with - but it feels like sealed collections only took off because of the potential return in the future rather than the art of the box. Pokemon even makes it easy these days to get that art - they come with the ETB on the reverse.
People collect both what they like and what may be valuable.
Not necessarily. That’s an over simplification.
This was my thought exactly.
For anyone wanting more deep analysis about the topic we’re discussion here, I suggest checking out Jake from Pokenomics channel: https://youtube.com/@pokenomics
He has some very thoughtful insight about this and in the hobby in general. I’ve learned so much from him and Smpratte.
Yes. The bigger point is 12k can buy a lot of things. You could bet a mysterious pearl PSA 10 with a few thousand left over. Heck, There’s a sample pikachu on eBay for 10k. Tropical wind, art academy. You could get 4 sealed southern islands binders for that! The list is endless. That’s what I find stunning. There are so many plays you can make with 12k that IMO will be safer and far more profitable over time than a black label modern card. If someone said I could have either a Pikachu Ashley art academy or a black label umbreon I would laugh and not think twice. Bottom line: the market is not rational and a lot of things like FOMO, lack of knowledge, YouTuber influencers at work.
I don’t think the person spending $12K on a black label Moonbreon is thinking about financial safety or profitability. Some people have a lot of money and they may not care if they see a return.
Yes the martlet is not rational. Maybe the buyer just want to own this card in the best possible condition and have the money to buy in.
I think many underestimate the huge demand going for modern cards. Not everyone wants to collect the rarer card which they have no interest in.
We are after all just a small speck compared to all the collectors out there for Pokémon tcg.
I think like others said, ORMB is a good starting point. Over time, everyone develops their own criteria of what is worth buying or a good “investment”
From what I’ve seen in the past few years, popularity is paramount followed by rarity. People assume the rarest cards do the best, but I don’t think that’s always the case. Cards like Mario pikachu, pikachu xy-p 279 have outperformed some trophies which halved in value. Trying to identify what’s makes the perfect card/investment is part of the fun for me in the hobby.
Whoaaaaaaa Triple posts on the forum???
Yes, yes I do
The black label price tag has always baffled me. I never understand the increasing price hikes for smaller and smaller condition improvements. If you re-graded that black label 10 times, do you really think it would achieve the same grade all ten times? I will never understand the premium of one card over the other when they look the same at an arm’s length.
OK, so why are you so hung up on people spending more on a BGS Black Label Moonbreon? It’s better for you if there are less eyes on these niche decks.
I can guarantee it. Unless you’re gatekeeping who can be counted as a collector. There are more casuals in this hobby and a Moonbreon will win out 90%+ of the time if you asked them which they would want more without being given a price.
Because these collectors aren’t going to be spending that amount on either product anyway.
