Seconding what @pfm said about the ORMB saying being about risk. It’ll never apply perfectly to every card, but when you look at overall trends and the direction of the market, it’ll generally be helpful. I’ve never been a huge fan of it because I think people misinterpret it as gospel whereas it’s in fact intended to be a simplification to shut up the whatshouldibuys.
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The above responses point toward the issue at hand. @niece , you are right to question why the rule, Older. Rarer. Minter. Better. does not apply to these items, but the “rule” itself is still a valid formula for guiding predictions.
The trick with questioning things, is asking the right question. In this case, ORMB applies to the longevity of an item, as suggested by those I’ve highlighted, and others. Is ORMB going to determine the price or value of something right now? maybe not. But when it comes to growth and stability over time, ORM is Better as it provides a basis for trends over time. You simply cannot say anything, Better or Worse, about New. [Rarer.] Minter.
I would say the question{s} we should ask is, WHY does ORMB not apply to these new cards? Why are these items so high when they’re not Old or Rare? The first has an obvious answer.
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I think the big thing that we have to know remember as collectors is that whether we like it or not everything new that comes out is much closer to optimized right out of the gate then in the past due to the hype and the potential for stonks. Does that mean modern cards have no room for growth? Definitely not, but as others have said it means the health of the projection looks a lot different than cards that got to ripen slowly due to their fundamentals. Modern cards have way more eyes on them, but they also need that many more eyes in order to maintain the high bar they set on release. Older cards with deeper fundamentals have far less volatility.
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I think its because most of these new cards just look nice. And thats fair, thats why base charizard is where it is. I personally think base charizard is the best charizard has ever looked, but id be lying if i said that brilliant alt charizard was ugly. Heck id even be lying saying that plasma storm is nicer to me or dare I say some of the other wotc ones.
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It seems to me that BGS Black Labels are more about an opportunity to obtain clout and flex wealth than they are about finding a “perfect” card. Nobody purchases a BGS Black Label to silently store in their vault or hide away in their attic for safekeeping. They are plastered on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, TikTok, etc. to draw attention and praise from their audiences.
Older, Rarer, Minter, Better is a heuristic to identify cards/sealed product that have relatively low volatility and predictable growth trajectories. Cards that align with ORMB may not always outperform sToNKy cards (e.g., Black Labels), but their trajectory is likely to be favored in the long-term.
ORM is still Better if you’re looking for predictable growth and long-term value. It may not make you instantly rich, but that’s the whole point.
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I look at the packaging of the trainer deck and I cringe. I look at the price of the Umbreon and I cringe. What kind of collector are you if you don’t care about modern stonk cards and vintage WotC decks?
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It should take into account popularity and the artwork as well since those are obvious.
Charizard outperforms all of the Pokemon in similar age, rarity and condition.
It’s of course difficult to compare cards with different age and rarity, but Charizard cards that look better - do they outperform ones that look like shit? I don’t follow enough to know but Expedition Charizard has to be the ugliest of them all - does it compete with the others?
Of course art is subjective, but if you don’t like the art yourself then is it a guarantee that many others do?
One that doesn’t care about other’s opinions and evaluations.
I think you’re getting at the thought that a collector should value valuable things, yes? I wonder if that’s correct. (I honestly Don’t know. I wonder.)
I think that still rings true but we can’t ignore modern has value.
I look at MTG and comics for comparison. ABU in mtg will always hold premiums but that doesn’t mean modern cards don’t hold value.
Same thing with comics. Golden, silver amd Bronze Age will always fetch wild prices but some new one are still worth money.
Really depends what you wait to collect I think
To add on top of what a lot of people have said about ORMB meaning its a ‘safer bet’ this card is also a black label which is an anomaly itself. I still legitimately don’t understand why black labels continue to sell so high when no one cares about becket cards 99% of the time. That being said, high price black label modern chase cards have known to fluctuate.
There was a very similar discussion when the hidden fates black label zard sold for around 10k five years ago. Several buy it now options for around 6k on ebay today. Hidden fates zard was the hot new chase card 5 years ago, today its moonbreon. I highly suspect in 5 years, the black moonbreon will likely be under or similar in price to its 13k sale and the deck will have increased. Just my 2 cents and feel free to call me out 5 years from now whether I was right or wrong.
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Whenever I talk about value I always have to contextualize it, because value can mean so many things in so many contexts. I believe each collector should collect what they find personally valuable and not just whatever the market considers valuable, or what other collectors say is valuable. Value in collecting comes from within, it comes from emotions, experiences and dedication. If you have those three things, no other collector can take those away from you, and you can build a collection that is meaningful to you.
Now in terms of market value, that’s when you would evaluate cost, supply, past performance/future predictions etc. But market value also has to take into account how collectors value the item in the ways described above. To say all serious collectors would be interested in a niche vintage WotC test print theme deck is the same as saying only “tru collectors” own one. After 2020–21, I would think most people who wanted one would have already found one or been willing to pay more than $6k for one. Certainly there’s more than 100 Blastoise collectors and Base Master Set collectors in the world? Or maybe people really don’t care for it…
I have no doubt the trainer deck will continue to increase steadily over time, but is it the absolute best place to park money? If someone has $6k to burn, I guess it’s an ok move to invest and see what happens over 10 years. If the market truly is undiscovered even now, then it’ll work out. But there’s also the possibility this is the relative market - no one can make people become emotionally attached to something they have never had feelings for.
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Black Label = Minter.
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Would you buy a BGS Black Label of your favorite card?
- Yes
- No
0 voters
How much would you pay for a BGS Black Label of your favorite card?
- 1x PSA 10 Price
- 2x PSA 10 Price
- 3x PSA 10 Price
- 4x PSA 10 Price
- 5x PSA 10 Price
- 10x PSA 10 Price
- I will buy it at any cost
0 voters
Just waiting for that black label sandstorm reverse wailmer,
Id easily pay 10x the raw price too. Fat stacks
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I rest my case
(Note: take it with a grain of salt because I definitely put the poll right under a leading narrative)
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Take another poll on Reddit, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. I think you’ll get different results… 
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why is it that we are comparing these 2 items? I cant really think of 2 more different english items. Compare that moonbreon to the BGS 8.5 1st base charizard that hit 12k last night (same as umbreon)
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I’m just going by the OP
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Charizard all day for me.